FINANCIAL CYCLES WEEKLY UPDATE #0422 – May 30-June 5, 2004 with TIM BOST

COMMENT: It’s a trading week shortened by the Memorial Day holiday on Monday, an event which is giving the news media an opportunity to focus on the human costs of the American occupation of Iraq. With more than 800 U.S. military personnel killed in the war so far, there are lots of stories of courage, patriotism, and personal sacrifice to report.
It’s grim, often heart-wrenching news. Unfortunately, it does much to divert attention away from much of the real progress being made in the slowly improving domestic economy, although the rising price of oil is still very much on the mind of anyone who visits a gas pump. Nor are higher prices the only concern—there are now commodity shortages popping up as well, with some gas stations running out of regular as consumers rush to fill up before prices rise even more, and with some construction projects facing delays because of shortages of steel and concrete.
In short, the economic outlook may be improving in the aggregate, but how you feel about it depends largely on personal circumstances. If you’re trying to put up a new building, or if you’re trying to find a job, or if you’re just trying to fill up your gas tank, your feelings are likely to be less than enthusiastic.
During the next six to eight weeks, with heavy Saturn transits impacting the U.S.
national horoscope and the personal horoscope for George W. Bush as well, we are quite likely to see more cloudy weather before we get rays of sunshine filtering into the national consciousness. As traders, however, we have learned that no matter what the news tells us and no matter what the surrounding sentiment seems to be, there will always be opportunities presenting themselves. It’s our job to watch for them, and to cultivate emotional detachment in the midst of these often disturbing, ever more exciting times.
Have a great week!

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THE WEEK AHEAD

It’s not a particularly hot week for earnings. This week we will watch for reports from Esterline Technology (ESL), Albertsons (ABS), United Natural Foods (UNFI), Neiman-Marcus (NMGA), FuelCell Energy (FCEL), Cooper Companies (COO), Mandalay Resort Group (MBG), and Elizabeth Arden (RDEN).
Economic reporting will also be light. We’ll get a look at April Construction Spending and Factory Orders, the May ISM index, the Q1 Productivity numbers. The most closely watched economic news will come on Friday, when we’ll get a look at May Payrolls and Unemployment. From a global perspective, the meeting of OPEC ministers in Beirut this week will undoubtedly get some close attention as well.
The Venus-Pluto opposition on the eve of the June 3 Full Moon makes Thursday the day to watch in this week’s shortened market action. There’s a void-of-course Moon that gets underway a couple of hours before the closing bell that day, however, so we’ll need to be especially attentive as we focus on the trading activity that morning. The weekend’s Mercury ingress, combined with two eclipse triggers, could make for a marked shift in market action and direction when next week’s trading gets underway.

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GLOBAL EQUITIES MARKETS LAST WEEK

Share prices in London continued to suffer slight weakness last week, but in all of the other equities markets around the globe prices were significantly higher. Hong Kong showed excellent strength during a holiday-shortened trading week, and the broader-based issues in the NASDAQ and Russell 2000 led the way for U.S. stocks.

Dow Jones Industrial Average – up 2.22%
Dow Jones Transportation Average – up 3.01%
Dow Jones Utilities Average – up 4.18%
S& P 500 – up 2.48%
NASDAQ Composite Index – up 3.90%
Russell 2000 – up 4.12%
London FTSE-100 – down 0.02%
Paris CAC-40 – up 1.25%
Frankfurt DAX – up 1.85%
Sydney All Ordinaries – up 1.56%
Tokyo Nikkei – up 2.16%
Hong Kong Hang Seng Index – up 3.89%
Singapore Straits Times Index – up 1.13%

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FINANCIAL CYCLES MODEL PORTFOLIO


POSITIONS CLOSED DURING THE PREVIOUS WEEK: SRCL, LIFC, COCO.

We closed three Model Portfolio positions during the past week, with two winners and one loser producing a net profit of $1,910.00.

On May 24 we bought to cover 200 shares of Stericycle Inc. (SRCL) at 46.65, taking a profit of $170.00 (a 1.79% gain in 14 trading days).

On May 25 we sold 800 shares of Lifecell Corporation (LIFC) at 9.55, taking a loss of $600.00 (a 7.28% loss in 6 trading days).

On May 25 we bought to cover Corinthian Colleges Inc. (COCO) at $27.95, taking a profit of $2,340.00 (a 21.82% gain in 23 trading days).

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POSITIONS ADDED TO THE PORTFOLIO DURING THE PREVIOUS WEEK: CADA, CREE, OFIX.

We added two long and one short positions to the Model Portfolio during the previous week.

We bought 600 shares of CAM Commerce Solutions (CADA) at 17.12 on 05/24/04, setting our initial stop at 15.88.

We bought 400 shares of Cree Inc. (CREE) at 23.05 on 05/25/04, setting our initial stop at 19.79.

We sold short 200 shares of Orthofix International NV (OFIX) at 43.25 on 05/25/04, setting our initial buy stop at 45.17.

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YEAR-IN-REVIEW MODEL PORTFOLIO ACTIVITY

Based on the Model Portfolio’s composition at the beginning of 2004, featuring positions with an acquisition cost basis of $53,947.50 ($66,022.50 in long positions less short liabilities of $12,075.00), we reduced our cash holdings in the Model Portfolio to $46,052.50 on January 1. This returned the total portfolio value to $100.000.00 as we began trading in 2004.

So far this year we have had a total of 85 completed trades, with 36 winners and 49 losers bringing us a total net profit of $3,602.50. The largest profit for a single trade has been $2,340.00; the largest single-trade loss has been $750.00; the average profit per trade has been $42.38. The mean duration of our trades has been 8.7 trading days.

During 2003 we had a total of 176 completed trades, with 99 winners and 77 losers bringing us a total net profit of $51,717.00. The largest profit for a single trade was $9,240.00; the largest single-trade loss was $1,170.00; the average profit per trade was $293.85. The mean duration of our trades was 10.1 trading days.

During 2002 we had a total of 195 completed trades, with 119 winners, 74 losers, and 2 break-even trades bringing us a total net profit of $50,956.00. The largest profit for a single trade was $5,100.00; the largest single-trade loss was $1,055.00; the average profit per trade was $261.31. The mean duration of our trades was 12.7 trading days.

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CURRENT POSITIONS IN THE MODEL PORTFOLIO

Avon Products (AVP) – bought 100 shares at 78.75 on 04/23/04; split 2-for-1 on 05/28/04. Currently hold 200 shares at 44.33. Raise stop to 42.24.

Cal Dive International (CDIS) – bought 400 shares at 27.80 on 05/11/04; currently 28.09. Raise stop to 27.82.

CAM Commerce Solutions (CADA) – bought 600 shares at 17.12 on 05/24/04; currently 18.91. Raise stop to 17.25.

Cree Inc. (CREE) – bought 400 shares at 23.05 on 05/25/04; currently 23.01. Raise stop to 22.25.

East West Bancorp Inc. (EWBC) – bought 200 shares at 54.25 on 05/17/04; currently 60.67. Raise stop to 57.15.

E G L Inc. (EAGL) – bought 500 shares at 20.05 on 05/17/04; currently 22.94. Raise stop to 20.84.

Knightsbridge Tankers (VLCCF) – bought 500 shares at 18.69 on 05/14/04; currently 21.55. Raise stop to 20.91.

National Medical Health Card (NMHC) – bought 300 shares at 28.75 on 05/06/04; currently 36.01. Raise stop to 35.50 on a closing basis.

Old Dominion Freight Lines (ODFL) – bought 200 shares at 37.00 on 05/17/04; now 300 shares following 3-for-2 split on 05/21/04. Currently 27.77; raise stop to 25.85.

Orthofix International NV (OFIX) – sold short 200 shares at 43.25 on 05/25/04; currently 44.67. Lower buy stop to 45.01.

Transact Technologies Inc. (TACT) – bought 500 shares at 19.50 on 04/29/00; currently 32.22. Raise stop to 30.00.

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STRONGEST MARKET SECTORS LAST WEEK

Home Health Care; Wholesale Computers; Integrated Circuits; Semiconductor Equipment & Materials; Copper.

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WEAKEST MARKET SECTORS LAST WEEK

General Building Materials; Domestic Telecommunications Services; Air Services; Tobacco Products; Generic Drugs.

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KEY ASTROLOGICAL EVENTS DURING THE COMING WEEK

May 30
Heliocentric Mercury parallel Heliocentric Poseidon 02:43 EDT
Heliocentric Earth conjunct Heliocentric Cupido 03:28 EDT
Sun opposition Cupido 03:36 EDT
Sun opposition Cupido in right ascension 07:20 EDT
Heliocentric Venus square Heliocentric Uranus 08:38 EDT
Venus conjunct Hades in right ascension 12:11 EDT
Mercury square Neptune in right ascension 13:19 EDT
Void-of Course Moon begins 15:09 EDT
Heliocentric Mars semisquare Heliocentric Jupiter 15:13 EDT
Venus conjunct Hades 19:13 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury semisextile Heliocentric Neptune 19:22 EDT
Sun square Jupiter 20:34 EDT

May 31
U.S. markets closed for Memorial Day holiday
Venus trine Apollon 00:36 EDT
Heliocentric Mars sesquiquadrate Heliocentric Pluto 00:49 EDT
Void-of Course Moon ends 03:08 EDT
Sun semisextile True Lunar Node in right ascension 04:10 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury trine Heliocentric Saturn 05:36 EDT
Heliocentric Venus contraparallel Heliocentric Mars 06:54 EDT
Venus semisextile Admetos 07:51 EDT
Sun square Uranus in right ascension 08:40 EDT
Mars quincunx Neptune 10:42 EDT
Mercury quincunx Pluto 11:08 EDT
Sun semisquare Vulcanus in right ascension 13:32 EDT
Sun sesquiquadrate Chiron 13:45 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury parallel Heliocentric Uranus 14:23 EDT
Heliocentric Mars square Heliocentric Poseidon 14:30 EDT
Heliocentric Venus in 24th harmonic to Heliocentric Pluto 14:33 EDT
Heliocentric Venus semisextile Heliocentric Poseidon 18:22 EDT
Heliocentric Venus trine Heliocentric Mars 19:53 EDT
Mercury contraparallel Neptune in right ascension 20:26 EDT
Mercury contraparallel Neptune 20:26 EDT
True Lunar Node retrograde station 20:34 EDT
Venus semisextile Vulcanus 22:18 EDT
Mercury conjunct Admetos in right ascension 22:36 EDT
Mercury sesquiquadrate Zeus 23:58 EDT

June 1
Heliocentric Mercury in 24th harmonic to Heliocentric Uranus 00:35 EDT
Sun semisextile True Lunar Node 00:36 EDT
Mercury semisextile Venus 00:37 EDT
Mercury sextile Vulcanus 01:22 EDT
Mars in 24th harmonic to Kronos 03:03 EDT
Mercury conjunct Admetos 05:54 EDT
Heliocentric Venus parallel Heliocentric Cupido 07:29 EDT
Mercury quincunx Apollon 07:41 EDT
Mercury semisextile Hades 09:52 EDT
Mercury quincunx Apollon in right ascension 10:24 EDT
Mercury quincunx Pluto in right ascension 10:49 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury opposition Heliocentric Jupiter 11:01 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury square Heliocentric Pluto 11:17 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury parallel Heliocentric Apollon 11:30 EDT
Mercury semisextile Venus in right ascension 12:13 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury sesquiquadrate Heliocentric Poseidon 12:37 EDT
Heliocentric Venus semisquare Heliocentric Chiron 13:55 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury sesquiquadrate Heliocentric Mars 15:02 EDT
Venus opposition Pluto in right ascension 16:34 EDT
Void-of-Course Moon begins 17:16 EDT
Venus trine Apollon in right ascension 17:39 EDT
Heliocentric Earth contraparallel Heliocentric Saturn 17:51 EDT
Mercury sesquiquadrate Zeus in right ascension 18:14 EDT
Heliocentric Venus sesquiquadrate Heliocentric Vulcanus 18:53 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury sextile Heliocentric Admetos 18:57 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury sextile Heliocentric Chiron 19:28 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury trine Heliocentric Vulcanus 21:11 EDT
Mars quincunx Neptune in right ascension 22:02 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury square Heliocentric Hades 23:00 EDT
Heliocentric Venus sextile Heliocentric Zeus 23:06 EDT

June 2
Heliocentric Mercury quincunx Heliocentric Apollon 00:12 EDT
Sun parallel Hades in right ascension 01:54 EDT
Heliocentric Earth contraparallel Heliocentric Hades 03:02 EDT
Heliocentric Venus semisquare Heliocentric Apollon 03:31 EDT
Void-of-Course Moon ends 03:52 EDT
Heliocentric Jupiter square Heliocentric Pluto 03:56 EDT
Mercury semisextile Hades in right ascension 04:22 EDT
Sun parallel Hades 04:34 EDT
Sun semisextile Saturn 07:42 EDT
Mercury opposition 5/16/2003 Lunar Eclipse Point 14:00 EDT
Sun sesquiquadrate Chiron in right ascension 15:15 EDT
Heliocentric Venus conjunct Heliocentric Cupido 17:57 EDT
Venus opposition Pluto 21:18 EDT
Mercury trine Chiron 22:18 EDT

June 3
Full Moon 00:20 EDT
Pluto sextile Apollon in right ascension 00:41 EDT
Venus semisextile Admetos in right ascension 01:48 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury semisquare Heliocentric Neptune 03:46 EDT
Mercury sextile Vulcanus in right ascension 04:03 EDT
Heliocentric Venus contraparallel Heliocentric Vulcanus 04:17 EDT
Mercury in 24th harmonic to True Lunar Node 04:24 EDT
Lunar perigee 09:10 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury enters Aries 10:54 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury contraparallel Heliocentric Jupiter 11:56 EDT
Void-of-Course Moon begins 13:12 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury square Heliocentric Kronos 16:17 EDT
Venus sesquiquadrate Poseidon 16:23 EDT
Sun square Jupiter in right ascension 16:56 EDT
Heliocentric Earth sextile Heliocentric Neptune 17:19 EDT

June 4
Mercury semisquare Saturn 00:10 EDT
Void-of-Course Moon ends 03:12 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury parallel Heliocentric Zeus 04:04 EDT
Heliocentric Mars in 24th harmonic to Heliocentric Vulcanus 05:43 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury semisextile Heliocentric Uranus 06:16 EDT
Venus semisextile Mars in right ascension 06:21 EDT
Mercury trine Chiron in right ascension 06:36 EDT
Chiron at maximum declination 09:35 EDT
Mercury parallel Admetos in right ascension 12:12 EDT
Mercury parallel Admetos 12:39 EDT
Moon at maximum south declination 13:32 EDT
Sun parallel Saturn in right ascension 13:51 EDT
Sun parallel Saturn 13:56 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury quincunx Heliocentric Poseidon 16:58 EDT
Mars parallel Kronos 19:31 EDT
Heliocentric Mars sextile Heliocentric Zeus 20:53 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury semisquare Heliocentric Admetos 22:45 EDT
Mars parallel Kronos in right ascension 23:23 EDT

June 5
Heliocentric Mars semisquare Heliocentric Hades 00:26 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury opposition Heliocentric Zeus 02:08 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury trine Heliocentric Mars 02:39 EDT
Sun semisextile Saturn in right ascension 02:52 EDT
Heliocentric Venus contraparallel Heliocentric Saturn 06:16 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury trine Heliocentric Cupido 08:09 EDT
Void-of-Course Moon begins 08:28 EDT
Mercury enters Gemini 08:45 EDT
Mars sextile Admetos in right ascension 9:44 EDT
Heliocentric Jupiter semisquare Heliocentric Poseidon 10:24 EDT
Heliocentric Venus contraparallel Heliocentric Hades 11:04 EDT
Mercury square 4/19/2004 Solar Eclipse Antiscion 11:06 EDT
Sun trine Neptune 11:39 EDT
Heliocentric Venus sextile Heliocentric Neptune 12:08 EDT
Sun in 24th harmonic to Mercury 13:24 EDT
Venus parallel Kronos 15:13 EDT
Venus parallel Kronos in right ascension 16:29 EDT
Mercury semisquare Saturn in right ascension 16:40 EDT
Jupiter contraparallel Apollon 17:26 EDT
Jupiter sesquiquadrate Chiron 18:52 EDT
Mercury semisextile Kronos 19:23 EDT
Heliocentric Earth quincunx Heliocentric Saturn 19:44 EDT
Jupiter contraparallel Apollon in right ascension 21:28 EDT
Venus sesquiquadrate Poseidon in right ascension 22:02 EDT
Venus parallel Mars 23:54 EDT

June 6
Venus parallel Mars in right ascension 00:05 EDT
Mercury opposition 11/23/2003 Solar Eclipse Point 00:15 EDT
Sun in 24th harmonic to Kronos 01:31 EDT
Void-of-Course Moon ends 03:10 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury sextile Heliocentric Neptune 04:41 EDT
Venus semisextile Mars 08:02 EDT
Mars quincunx Pluto in right ascension 09:29 EDT
Mars square Apollon in right ascension 11:51 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury trine Heliocentric Venus 12:03 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury square Heliocentric Saturn 14:04 EDT
Heliocentric Earth trine Heliocentric Mercury 17:57 EDT
Heliocentric Venus quincunx Heliocentric Saturn 18:54 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury contraparallel Heliocentric Zeus 19:06 EDT
Venus trine Neptune in right ascension 19:27 EDT
Mercury semisextile Kronos in right ascension 19:40 EDT

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STOCKS TO WATCH: MXIM, WITS.

Maxim Integrated Products (MXIM)
NASDAQ; Optionable
First Trade Date: 02/29/1988; 09:30 a.m.
Trading Strategy: Here’s a stock that’s picking up a lot of energy, with transiting Jupiter in opposition to the First-Trade Sun, augmented by a semisquare from transiting Chiron to the First-Trade Sun. That could provide a positive pop for MXIM, a good upward move looks even more likely because the stock has just broken out above a Uranus resistance line (G,27.05,N,0) that has bounded the trading action for this stock for quite some time. Our plan is to add a long position in this stock to the Model Portfolio early this week, setting our initial stop on the next-lowest increment of that Uranus line, at 47.22.

Witness Systems Inc. (WITS)
NASDAQ
First Trade Date: 02/10/2000; 09:30 a.m.
Trading Strategy: WITS has made a couple of attempts recently to break through an Apollon resistance line (G,20.13,N,0), but both tries failed. That’s not surprising, since transiting Saturn is currently conjoining the WITS First-Trade IC. Saturn will soon be on its way, however, and transiting Apollon is closing in on the WITS First-Trade Descendant as transiting Mars conjoins First-Trade Vulcanus. This makes for a good buying prospect, so we’ll be adding a long position in this stock to the Model Portfolio this week. We’ll set our initial stop at 12.85.



FINANCIAL CYCLES (ISSN 1055-8527) is published by Taylor-Bost Consulting and edited by Tim Bost at 2831 Ringling Boulevard, Suite B-108, Sarasota, FL 34237 USA. Phone: 941-953-3545. Fax: 941-953-3732. Web: http://www.TimBost.com. Entire contents copyright 2004 Timothy L. Bost. No portion of this Weekly Email Update or its printed version may be reproduced without the publisher's written permission. Subscriptions to FINANCIAL CYCLES are $39.00 per month for weekly updates by email, payable by monthly billing to a major credit card. Advance payment options (by credit card, check, or money order) are $228 for 6 months, $432 for 1 year or $815 for two years. All subscriptions are payable in US funds only— Visa, MasterCard, American Express, Diners Club, and Discover/Novus accepted; please make checks or money orders payable to Taylor-Bost. PayPal is also accepted for online orders; to subscribe go to http://www.TimBost.com/newsletter/subscribe.html.

By providing a source of independent market analysis, the purpose of FINANCIAL CYCLES is to foster the growth of person-centered business and investment astrology; to enhance the development and dissemination of financial literacy and prosperity consciousness; and to explore the use of technical analysis and financial astrology in promoting an esoteric spiritual understanding of economic trends, geocosmic cycles, geopolitical events, and market movements. FINANCIAL CYCLES is a general interest publication which is prepared from astrological information, news reports, cycle projections, and market observations which are believed to be accurate and reliable, but which cannot be guaranteed. Portfolio and trading reports in this publication do not include taxes and transaction fees, which should be taken into consideration by prospective traders and investors. Even with accurate information, past performance is no guarantee of future results. Speculation in securities and commodities involves considerable financial risk, and readers who plan to invest or speculate in securities or commodities mentioned in FINANCIAL CYCLES have the complete responsibility for making themselves fully aware of all the risks involved before they invest. The editor may or may not have positions in the securities and commodities discussed in this newsletter, and the information in FINANCIAL CYCLES should in no way be understood or construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any products or securities, nor should the material published in this newsletter be considered buy/sell advice.

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posted by Tim Bost @ 5/30/2004 10:57:25 AM