FINANCIAL CYCLES WEEKLY UPDATE #0419 – May 9-15, 2004 with TIM BOST

COMMENT: We have an unusual event coming up on May 17, which is the 212th birthday of the New York Stock Exchange: two planets, Venus and Neptune, will both be going into retrograde motion on the same day. What’s the market impact that we can expect?
According to Ray Merriman’s research, Venus retrograde stations have a high correlation with turning points in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and are especially strong when they come near cycle troughs. This gives the Venus station a bias toward higher stock prices. Neptune retrograde stations also work powerfully and consistently to bring trend changes in the DJIA.
When we look at other markets, however, the correlations are a bit different. Venus retrograde stations have worked to bring the NASDAQ Composite up about 75% of the time during the past 15 years or so; typically, though the increase is a modest one (less than 1%). The trend with Neptune retrograde stations and the NASDAQ has been just the opposite, with a slight decrease coming just after the station.
In Japan, the Nikkei has responded strongly to Venus retrograde stations during the past decade, with price drops of around 4% happening about 80% of the time. Most of the impact of the Venus retrograde station comes in the trading days just before the station occurs. Neptune retrograde stations have brought the Nikkei down only about 55% of the time, but the price drops have typically been sharp: about 1.5%.
So what happens when both stations come on the same day? It’s an untested phenomenon. During the past 100 years or so, it hasn’t happened, at least on exactly the same day.
The last time Venus and Neptune made nearly simultaneous retrograde stations was in 1977, with Venus going retrograde on March 15 and Neptune going retrograde on March 18. During the week following the Venus station the U.S. sent arms to Zaire, Druse chieftain Kamal Jumblat and Congo President Marien Ngouabi were both assassinated, and President Carter proposed the abolition of the Electoral College to allow for the direct election of U.S. presidents. In the markets, the Dow Industrials dropped by 4.8% (from 968.00 to 921.21) during the 10 trading days following the Venus retrograde station.
The challenge right now, of course, is that we have a market that’s not strongly trending, so which way will a trend reversal take us? If stocks sell off sharply this week as we move toward the stations, we could get a good bounce to the upside after May 17. But if prices go up during the next few trading sessions, we may see more topping action. For our money, based on what happened in 1977 and on the weekly chart for the Dow, we’re looking for falling stock prices after the stations.
Either way, however, we should pay close attention. The observations we make right now may come in handy the next time we have nearly simultaneous retrograde stations by Venus and Neptune—on July 19 and 20, 2031.
Have a great week!

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THE WEEK AHEAD

We’re looking for earnings reports this week from Charter Communications (CHTR), Pacific Sunwear of California (PSUN), May Department Stores (MAY), Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF), Cisco Systems (CSCO), Walt Disney Company (DIS), Ann Taylor Stores (ANN), Federated Department Stores (FD), Wal-Mart (WMT), Target Corporation (TGT), American Eagle Outfitters (AEOS), and Payless Shoes (PSS).
On the economic front, we’ll get figures for March International Trade, the April Producer Price Index and Consumer Price Index, March Business Inventories, April Retail Sales, April Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization, and the preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment for May. There will speeches by Treasury Secretary John Snow and Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan, which will be closely watched for hints of the timing on interest rate increases.
Astrologically we could see market spirits lifted by Tuesday’s heliocentric Venus/Uranus trine; there’s a void-of-course Moon at the end of that trading day, however, so some caution is definitely in order. The Sun/Admetos conjunction as Admetos goes through a brief orbital perturbation is likely to make its influence felt on the stock exchange and metals markets in London, while ongoing Mars/Hades resonances and a trigger of last fall’s Solar Eclipse late in the week could make for some turbulence in and out of the markets.


GLOBAL EQUITIES MARKETS LAST WEEK

London and Singapore managed to squeak through last week with small gains, but the rest of the stock markets around the world continued their downward trend. Tokyo and Frankfurt were the hardest hit, and there were significant declines in the broad U.S. markets as well. The NASDAQ, meanwhile, gathered some important strength, and almost managed to end the week on the plus side.

Dow Jones Industrial Average – down 1.06%
Dow Jones Transportation Average – down 1.59%
Dow Jones Utilities Average – down 2.13%
S& P 500 – down 0.78%
NASDAQ Composite Index – down 0.11%
Russell 2000 – down 2.01%
London FTSE-100 – up 0.19%
Paris CAC-40 – down 0.57%
Frankfurt DAX – down 2.25%
Sydney All Ordinaries – down 0.19%
Tokyo Nikkei – down 2.75%
Hong Kong Hang Seng Index – down 0.27%
Singapore Straits Times Index – up 0.09%


FINANCIAL CYCLES MODEL PORTFOLIO


POSITIONS CLOSED DURING THE PREVIOUS WEEK: HAL, SONC, JBHT.

We closed three Model Portfolio positions during the past week, with one winner and two losers producing a net loss of $834.00.

On May 5 we sold 300 shares of Halliburton Company (HAL) at 29.00, taking a loss of $675.00 (a 7.20% loss in 6 trading days).

On May 5 we bought to cover 300 shares of Sonic Corporation (SONC) at 32.91, taking a profit of $126.00 (a 1.26% gain in 15 trading days).

On May 7 we sold 300 shares of J. B. Hunt Transportation Services (JBHT) at 30.55, taking a loss of $285.00 (a 3.02% loss in 2 trading days).

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POSITIONS ADDED TO THE PORTFOLIO DURING THE PREVIOUS WEEK: JBHT, DRL, HZO, NMHC, PPP.

We added five long positions to the Model Portfolio during the previous week.

We bought 300 shares of J. B. Hunt Transportation Services (JBHT) at 31.50 on 05/05/04, setting our initial stop at 30.55.
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We bought 300 shares of Doral Financial Corporation (DRL) at 32.75 on 05/06/04, setting our initial stop at 30.25.

We bought 300 shares of Marinemax Inc. (HZO) at 29.00 on 05/06/04, setting our initial stop at 28.00.

We bought 300 shares of National Medical Health Card (NMHC) at 28.75 on 05/06/04, setting our initial stop at 21.25.

We bought 200 shares of Pogo Producing Company (PPP) at 47.75 on 05/06/04, setting our initial stop at 47.00.


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YEAR-IN-REVIEW MODEL PORTFOLIO ACTIVITY

Based on the Model Portfolio’s composition at the beginning of 2004, featuring positions with an acquisition cost basis of $53,947.50 ($66,022.50 in long positions less short liabilities of $12,075.00), we reduced our cash holdings in the Model Portfolio to $46,052.50 on January 1. This returned the total portfolio value to $100.000.00 as we began trading in 2004.

So far this year we have had a total of 75 completed trades, with 33 winners and 42 losers bringing us a total net profit of $3,327.50. The largest profit for a single trade has been $1,980.00; the largest single-trade loss has been $750.00; the average profit per trade has been $44.37. The mean duration of our trades has been 8.9 trading days.

During 2003 we had a total of 176 completed trades, with 99 winners and 77 losers bringing us a total net profit of $51,717.00. The largest profit for a single trade was $9,240.00; the largest single-trade loss was $1,170.00; the average profit per trade was $293.85. The mean duration of our trades was 10.1 trading days.

During 2002 we had a total of 195 completed trades, with 119 winners, 74 losers, and 2 break-even trades bringing us a total net profit of $50,956.00. The largest profit for a single trade was $5,100.00; the largest single-trade loss was $1,055.00; the average profit per trade was $261.31. The mean duration of our trades was 12.7 trading days.

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CURRENT POSITIONS IN THE MODEL PORTFOLIO

Avon Products (AVP) – bought 100 shares at 78.75 on 04/23/04; currently 84.56. Raise stop to 81.35

Corinthian Colleges Inc. (COCO) – sold short 300 shares at 35.75 on 04/22/04; currently 31.07. Lower buy stop to 31.82.

Doral Financial Corporation (DRL) – bought 300 shares at 32.75 on 05/06/04; currently 31.34. Raise stop to 31.25.

Marinemax Inc. (HZO) – bought 300 shares at 29.00 on 05/06/04; currently 29.25. Raise stop to 28.30.

National Medical Health Card (NMHC) – bought 300 shares at 28.75 on 05/06/04; currently 28.92. Raise stop to 27.25.

Pogo Producing Company (PPP) – bought 200 shares at 47.75 on 05/06/04; currently 47.33. Stop set at 47.00.

Red Hat Inc. (RHAT) – bought 400 shares at 25.65 on 04/27/04; currently 24.93. Raise stop to 23.95.

Transact Technologies Inc. (TACT) – bought 500 shares at 19.50 on 04/29/00; currently 25.56. Raise stop to 23.35.

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STRONGEST MARKET SECTORS LAST WEEK

Long-Term Care Facilities; Motion Picture Theaters; Southeast Regional Banks; Personal Computers; Research Services.

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WEAKEST MARKET SECTORS LAST WEEK

Silver; Gaming Activities; Major Airlines; Residential Construction; Oil & Gas Drilling & Exploration.

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May 9
Heliocentric Mercury opposition Heliocentric Kronos 00:16 EDT
Heliocentric Earth sextile Heliocentric Jupiter 03:33 EDT
Heliocentric Venus enters Scorpio 04:34 EDT
Saturn quincunx Cupido 07:02 EDT
Void-of Course Moon 09:03 – 18:46 EDT
Heliocentric Venus trine Heliocentric Kronos 20:00 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury sextile Heliocentric Uranus 22:30 EDT
Mercury sesquiquadrate Cupido 23:28 EDT

May 10
Heliocentric Earth semisquare Heliocentric Mercury 13:21 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury in 24th harmonic to Heliocentric Pluto 16:08 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury sextile Heliocentric Poseidon 19:08 EDT
Mercury sextile Venus 19:18 EDT
Heliocentric Earth semisextile Heliocentric Pluto 21:35 EDT

May 11
Mercury sextile Venus in right ascension 01:01 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury in 24th harmonic to Heliocentric Chiron 02:34 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury sesquiquadrate Heliocentric Admetos 05:15 EDT
Heliocentric Earth in 24th harmonic to Heliocentric Poseidon 06:23 EDT
True Lunar Node direct station 06:50 EDT
Mars sesquiquadrate Neptune in right ascension 07:16 EDT
Heliocentric Venus trine Heliocentric Uranus 11:03 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury square Heliocentric Zeus 11:05 EDT
Sun square Neptune in right ascension 11:35 EDT
Void-of Course Moon 15:31 – 22.52 EDT
Heliocentric Venus semisquare Heliocentric Jupiter 19:34 EDT
Admetos retrograde station 21:01 EDT
Mercury square Chiron 21:11 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury semisextile Heliocentric Cupido 21:14 EDT
Sun quincunx Pluto 21:29 EDT

May 12
Heliocentric Venus parallel Heliocentric Uranus 00:07 EDT
Mercury in 24th harmonic to True Lunar Node 01:14 EDT
Mercury semisquare Uranus in right ascension 04:24 EDT
Heliocentric Earth sextile Heliocentric Chiron 04:46 EDT
Sun sextile Vulcanus 06:29 EDT
Sun conjunct Admetos 12:01 EDT
Heliocentric Earth opposition Heliocentric Admetos 12:09 EDT
Sun sesquiquadrate Zeus 12:12 EDT
Sun parallel Admetos 13:09 EDT
Heliocentric Earth contraparallel Heliocentric Admetos 13:15 EDT
Sun semisextile Hades 16:18 EDT
Mercury square Vulcanus in right ascension 17:41 EDT
Heliocentric Venus semisquare Heliocentric Pluto 18:00 EDT
Zeus sesquiquadrate Admetos 19:46 EDT
Heliocentric Earth trine Heliocentric Vulcanus 22:42 EDT
Heliocentric Venus conjunct Heliocentric Poseidon 23:10 EDT

May 13
Sun quincunx Apollon 02:42 EDT
Admetos direct station 02:52 EDT
Heliocentric Earth semisquare Heliocentric Zeus 05:20 EDT
Heliocentric Earth quincunx Heliocentric Hades 06:39 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury semisextile Heliocentric Neptune 09:13 EDT
Mercury square Chiron in right ascension 12:15 EDT
Heliocentric Earth semisextile Heliocentric Apollon 12:50 EDT
Sun quincunx Apollon in right ascension 19:20 EDT
Heliocentric Mars parallel Heliocentric Saturn 19:32 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury opposition Heliocentric Saturn 19:44 EDT
Heliocentric Mars parallel Heliocentric Hades 20:24 EDT
Void-of Course Moon begins 22:14 EDT

May 14
Sun quincunx Pluto in right ascension 03:19 EDT
Heliocentric Venus semisextile Heliocentric Zeus 03:26 EDT
Heliocentric Venus sesquiquadrate Heliocentric Hades 04:14 EDT
Mars semisquare Admetos in right ascension 04:15 EDT
Void-of Course Moon ends 06:02 EDT
Heliocentric Venus in 24th harmonic to Heliocentric Apollon 07:56 EDT
Sun sesquiquadrate Zeus in right ascension 08:09 EDT
Heliocentric Earth in 24th harmonic to Heliocentric Cupido 11:37 EDT
Moon at 0 degrees declination 19:11 EDT
Heliocentric Venus semisextile Heliocentric Cupido 21:39 EDT
Mercury square 11/23/2003 Solar Eclipse Antiscion 21:24 EDT
Heliocentric Saturn parallel Heliocentric Hades 23:57 EDT

May 15
Heliocentric Mercury semisquare Heliocentric Uranus 03:38 EDT
Venus quincunx Chiron 07:52 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury trine Heliocentric Jupiter 10:08 EDT
Heliocentric Earth in 24th harmonic to Heliocentric Venus 12:46 EDT
Sun semisquare Saturn 15:36 EDT
Jupiter sextile Saturn in right ascension 18:49 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury semisextile Heliocentric Pluto 20:03 EDT
Mercury conjunct 4/19/2004 Solar Eclipse Point 22:30 EDT

May 16
Mercury enters Taurus 02:46 EDT
Void-of Course Moon 08:17 – 15:157 EDT
Sun trine Chiron 09:22 EDT
Mars trine Poseidon 09:39 EDT
Sun semisextile Venus 11:59 EDT
Sun sextile Vulcanus in right ascension 13:05 EDT
Mercury sextile Kronos 15:08 EDT
Sun in 24th harmonic to True Lunar Node 16:15 EDT
Mars square Zeus in right ascension 17:11 EDT


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STOCKS TO WATCH: CDIS, VLCCF, MICC, SNCI, SRCL.

Cal Dive International (CDIS)
NASDAQ; Optionable
First Trade Date: 07/01/1997; 09:30 a.m.
Trading Strategy: Saturn is currently conjunct the CDIS First-Trade Sun, with Mars following close behind to give this stock a positive kick in the coming weeks. We’re also watching transiting Venus, slowing down for its retrograde station, about to conjoin First-Trade Kronos. Geocentric planetary lines for Kronos at 86.4 and Admetos at 48.9 are the operative factors for this stock right now, with Kronos providing significant support and the stock working its way through resistance on the Admetos line. Our plan is to add a long position in CDIS to the Model Portfolio this week, setting our initial stop on the Kronos line at 26.33.

Knightsbridge Tankers (VLCCF)
NASDAQ
First Trade Date: 02/07/1997; 09:30 a.m.
Trading Strategy: The situation with VLCCF is fairly straightforward: transiting Saturn is conjunct the First-Trade IC, and the stock has dipped dramatically in response. We don’t see any obstacles to a price recovery as Saturn moves out of the way; planetary price lines for geocentric Apollon at 19.95 and geocentric Poseidon at 21.32 define important support levels. If VLCCF closes above its 50-day moving average we will add a long position to the Model Portfolio, setting our initial stop on the Apollon line at 16.29.

Millicom International Cellular (MICC)
NASDAQ; Optionable
First Trade Date: 12/31/1993; 09:30 a.m.
Trading Strategy: There’s a lot of action going on with planetary transits to this stock—Neptune is crossing the First-Trade Ascendant, Venus is conjoining First-Trade Kronos, Saturn in opposition to the First-Trade Sun, and Jupiter is conjoining First-
Trade Chiron. To sort things out, we’re using geocentric planetary lines for Mars at 27.88, Neptune at 29.05, Uranus at 29.15, and Chiron at 15.93. The Mars and Neptune lines have provided important support for this stock during the last two trading sessions, acting in concert with the MICC 50-day moving average. Based on that configuration, our plan is to add a long position in MICC to the Model Portfolio this week. We will set our initial stop on the Uranus line at 21.95.

Sonic Innovations Inc. (SNCI)
NASDAQ
First Trade Date: 05/02/2000; 09:30 a.m.
Trading Strategy: SNCI has been trying to form a base for the last 4 or 5 weeks, but the effort is yielding somewhat choppy results and the stock is now more than 24% off its 52-week high at the end of March. The $10 price range which had provided support in March has now become resistance, and it’s being strengthened by a geocentric 49.3 Saturn line, backed up by a geocentric 49.8 Admetos line. We’ll use that Admetos line to set our initial buy stop at 10.23 when we sell this stock short this week.

Stericycle Inc. (SRCL)
NASDAQ; Optionable
First Trade Date: 08/23/1996; 09:30 a.m.
Trading Strategy: With transiting Saturn sitting on the SRCL First-Trade Midheaven, it’s not surprising to see this stock pulling back a bit—it’s currently trading at about 8% off its 52-week high. There are times when that sort of transit is a good thing, since it can set the stage for an upward move. In this case, however, Saturn will soon be hitting First-Trade Venus as well, and Chiron is conjoining First-Trade Neptune. This could bring the price even lower, especially with SRCL having dropped below its 50-day moving average and challenging its 200-day moving average as well. We’re looking at geocentric planetary lines for Jupiter at 27.8, Saturn at 63.0, and the True Lunar Node at 18.87. This stock’s most recent close was below the Saturn line, with intraday penetration of the Node line as well. All this adds up to a short sale in our book—we plan to sell SRCL short this week, setting our initial buy stop at 49.45.



FINANCIAL CYCLES (ISSN 1055-8527) is published by Taylor-Bost Consulting and edited by Tim Bost at 2831 Ringling Boulevard, Suite B-108, Sarasota, FL 34237 USA. Phone: 941-953-3545. Fax: 941-953-3732. Web: http://www.TimBost.com. Entire contents copyright 2004 Timothy L. Bost. No portion of this Weekly Email Update or its printed version may be reproduced without the publisher's written permission. Subscriptions to FINANCIAL CYCLES are $39.00 per month for weekly updates by email, payable by monthly billing to a major credit card. Advance payment options (by credit card, check, or money order) are $228 for 6 months, $432 for 1 year or $815 for two years. All subscriptions are payable in US funds only— Visa, MasterCard, American Express, Diners Club, and Discover/Novus accepted; please make checks or money orders payable to Taylor-Bost. PayPal is also accepted for online orders; to subscribe go to http://www.TimBost.com/newsletter/subscribe.html.

By providing a source of independent market analysis, the purpose of FINANCIAL CYCLES is to foster the growth of person-centered business and investment astrology; to enhance the development and dissemination of financial literacy and prosperity consciousness; and to explore the use of technical analysis and financial astrology in promoting an esoteric spiritual understanding of economic trends, geocosmic cycles, geopolitical events, and market movements. FINANCIAL CYCLES is a general interest publication which is prepared from astrological information, news reports, cycle projections, and market observations which are believed to be accurate and reliable, but which cannot be guaranteed. Portfolio and trading reports in this publication do not include taxes and transaction fees, which should be taken into consideration by prospective traders and investors. Even with accurate information, past performance is no guarantee of future results. Speculation in securities and commodities involves considerable financial risk, and readers who plan to invest or speculate in securities or commodities mentioned in FINANCIAL CYCLES have the complete responsibility for making themselves fully aware of all the risks involved before they invest. The editor may or may not have positions in the securities and commodities discussed in this newsletter, and the information in FINANCIAL CYCLES should in no way be understood or construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any products or securities, nor should the material published in this newsletter be considered buy/sell advice.

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posted by Tim Bost @ 5/09/2004 11:26:28 PM