FINANCIAL CYCLES WEEKLY UPDATE #0418 – May 2-8, 2004 with TIM BOST

COMMENT: The Mercury Retrograde period which just ended on Friday really packed a wallop! We experienced our share of miscommunications, travel delays, and market confusion, but what seemed different was that there was much more psychological unrest and general irritation than is typically the case with Mercury Retrograde times. Perhaps this was due to the Solar Eclipse which came in the middle of the retrograde period—it added a sense of urgency that made for short tempers and mistakes.
The other thing that was remarkable about the recent Mercury Retrograde was that the planet’s shift back to direct motion on Friday didn’t instantly bring the anticipated switch to more positive energy. Instead, things got a more chaotic. The news from Iraq became especially distasteful when the media released photographs of American military personnel torturing Iraqi prisoners. The Selective Service announced a plan to register women for the military draft. Supreme Court Justice David Souter was attacked by a group of young men while he was out jogging. Delta Airlines had to suspend some of its Atlanta operations for a few hours due to computer problems. An attack in Saudi Arabia killed five foreign contract workers, including two Americans. And on the first anniversary of President Bush’s announcement of “mission accomplished” in the Iraq war, the post-proclamation death toll hit 734 U.S. combatants killed.
On a more personal note, we found ourselves in the midst of a horrific traffic jam on an interstate highway on Saturday, with an accident involving at least six vehicles turning what is normally a 1-hour drive into an ordeal lasting nearly 3 hours. And to top matters off, we suffered what was apparently an infection by an unknown computer virus, which systematically began altering and destroying key components of the operating system on the primary computer in our business—the one that maintains our mailing lists and email, handles the production of our newsletter, and provides a platform for our research into the markets.
What all of this demonstrates is not that the traditional ideas about Mercury are wrong; it just shows how powerful planetary stations are. When Mercury makes a direct station, as when it makes a retrograde station, its apparent motion is enormously reduced. By hanging around one or two degrees of the zodiac for several days around the time of the station, the planet “supercharges” that degree area and the potential for problems or unusual circumstances increases. In this case, since it was a Mercury station, the emphasis in the events was on negative communications, computers, delays in transportation, and mishaps to travelers (whether they be people working abroad or stay-at-home judges jogging in the park). With Mercury’s current position in Aries, there was a bit more potential for violence and confrontation than is typical, and the entire retrograde period carried extra clout because Mercury’s retrograde station on April 6 came at the exact degree of the Solar Eclipse on April 19. The energy got underscored with the direct station on Friday, and we’ll be looking for yet another bit of fall-out from this phenomenon on May 15, when Mercury transits the Eclipse Point (and its point of retrogradation).
At any rate the mishaps with travel and our computer resources have chewed into our normal preparation time for this publication, as well as made it impossible to access some key analytical tools. With apologies to our readers we are putting together an issue that’s a bit truncated this week. At this point we can only hope that things will be up and running for us to send out these words as an email on Monday morning before the New York markets open for trading—our apologies in advance if you’re getting this communication at a later time than usual.
Have a great week!

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GLOBAL EQUITIES MARKETS LAST WEEK

The broad U.S. market, exemplified by the NASDAQ and the Russell 2000, led world equities into the tank during the final week of Mercury Retrograde trading. U.S. transports, as well as Paris, Tokyo, and Hong Kong, were also hard hit in a week that saw all losers and no winners.

Dow Jones Industrial Average – down 2.36%
Dow Jones Transportation Average – down 3.65%
Dow Jones Utilities Average – down 0.10%
S& P 500 – down 2.92%
NASDAQ Composite Index – down 6.32%
Russell 2000 – down 5.23%
London FTSE-100 – down 1.76%
Paris CAC-40 – down 3.60%
Frankfurt DAX – down 2.89%
Sydney All Ordinaries – down 1.38%
Tokyo Nikkei – down 3.31%
Hong Kong Hang Seng Index – down 3.56%
Singapore Straits Times Index – down 1.37%


FINANCIAL CYCLES MODEL PORTFOLIO


POSITIONS CLOSED DURING THE PREVIOUS WEEK: SPF, CVH, DRTE, HOLX, MIDD, PPG, QLTI.

We closed seven Model Portfolio positions during the past week, with four winners and three losers producing a net gain of $3,418.00.

On April 27 we bought to cover 200 shares of Standard Pacific Corporation (SPF) at 55.40, taking a loss of $100.00 (a 0.91% loss in 10 trading days).

On April 28 we sold 200 shares of Coventry Health Care Inc. (CVH) at 42.83, taking a profit of $396.00 (a 4.85% gain in 9 trading days).

On April 28 we sold 600 shares of Dendrite International (DRTE) at 17.66, taking a profit of $606.00 (a 6.03% gain in 7 trading days).

On April 28 we sold 500 shares of Hologic Inc. (HOLX) at 21.93, taking a profit of $990.00 (a 9.92% gain in 20 trading days).

On April 28 we bought to cover 200 shares of Middleby Corporation (MIDD) at 49.52, taking a loss of $304.00 (a 3.17% loss in 3 trading days).

On April 28 we sold 100 shares of P P G Industries (PPG) at 60.35, taking a loss of $150.00 (a 2.43% loss in 1 trading day).

On April 28 we sold 400 shares of QLT Inc. (QLTI) at 27.70, taking a profit of $1,980.00 (a 21.76% profit in 26 trading days).

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POSITIONS ADDED TO THE PORTFOLIO DURING THE PREVIOUS WEEK: HAL, PPG, RHAT, TACT.

We added four long positions to the Model Portfolio during the previous week.

We bought 300 shares of Halliburton Company (HAL) at 31.25 on 04/27/04, setting our initial stop at 28.94.
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We bought 100 shares of P P G Industries (PPG) at 61.85 on 04/27/04, setting our initial stop at 60.35.

We bought 400 shares of Red Hat Inc. (RHAT) at 25.65 on 04/27/04, setting our initial stop at 22.00.

We bought 500 shares of Transact Technologies Inc. (TACT) at 19.50 on 04/29/00, setting our initial stop at 16.50.

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YEAR-IN-REVIEW MODEL PORTFOLIO ACTIVITY

Based on the Model Portfolio’s composition at the beginning of 2004, featuring positions with an acquisition cost basis of $53,947.50 ($66,022.50 in long positions less short liabilities of $12,075.00), we reduced our cash holdings in the Model Portfolio to $46,052.50 on January 1. This returned the total portfolio value to $100.000.00 as we began trading in 2004.

So far this year we have had a total of 72 completed trades, with 32 winners and 40 losers bringing us a total net profit of $4,161.50. The largest profit for a single trade has been $1,980.00; the largest single-trade loss has been $750.00; the average profit per trade has been $57.80. The mean duration of our trades has been 8.9 trading days.

During 2003 we had a total of 176 completed trades, with 99 winners and 77 losers bringing us a total net profit of $51,717.00. The largest profit for a single trade was $9,240.00; the largest single-trade loss was $1,170.00; the average profit per trade was $293.85. The mean duration of our trades was 10.1 trading days.

During 2002 we had a total of 195 completed trades, with 119 winners, 74 losers, and 2 break-even trades bringing us a total net profit of $50,956.00. The largest profit for a single trade was $5,100.00; the largest single-trade loss was $1,055.00; the average profit per trade was $261.31. The mean duration of our trades was 12.7 trading days.

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CURRENT POSITIONS IN THE MODEL PORTFOLIO

Avon Products (AVP) – bought 100 shares at 78.75 on 04/23/04; currently 84.00. Raise stop to 80.00

Corinthian Colleges Inc. (COCO) – sold short 300 shares at 35.75 on 04/22/04; currently 30.58. Lower buy stop to 31.95.

Halliburton Company (HAL) – bought 300 shares at 31.25 on 04/27/04; currently 29.80. Raise stop to 29.00.

Red Hat Inc. (RHAT) – bought 400 shares at 25.65 on 04/27/04; currently 22.72. Stop set at 22.00.

Sonic Corporation (SONC) – sold short 300 shares at 33.33 on 04/14/04; currently 32.27. Lower buy stop to 32.91.

Transact Technologies Inc. (TACT) – bought 500 shares at 19.50 on 04/29/00; currently 20.50. Raise stop to 17.50.

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STRONGEST MARKET SECTORS LAST WEEK

Personal Products; Wholesale Drugs; Auto Parts Stores; Book Publishing; Manufactured Housing.

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WEAKEST MARKET SECTORS LAST WEEK

Processing Systems & Products; Wholesale Computers; Memory Chips; Integrated Circuits; Metal Fabrication.

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May 2
Heliocentric Venus semisextile Heliocentric Jupiter 00:37 EDT
Chiron retrograde station 01:13 EDT
Heliocentric Venus sesquiquadrate Heliocentric Uranus 01:45 EDT
Moon at 0 degrees declination 01:59 EDT
Sun sextile Saturn in right ascension 02:01 EDT
Heliocentric Mars conjunct Heliocentric Vulcanus 02:12 EDT
Venus opposition Pluto 02:14 EDT
Heliocentric Earth semisextile Heliocentric Mercury 05:20 EDT
Venus semisextile Vulcanus 06:49 EDT
Jupiter at maximum declination 11:15 EDT
Venus semisextile Admetos 13:39 EDT
Mars quincunx Chiron in right ascension 13:50 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury sextile Heliocentric Neptune 15:01 EDT
Heliocentric Mars semisextile Heliocentric Hades 18:08 EDT
Venus trine Apollon in right ascension 19:40 EDT
Venus conjunct Hades 20:35 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury quincunx Heliocentric Saturn 23:15 EDT

May 3
Uranus square Cupido in right ascension 05:53 EDT
Heliocentric Mars square Heliocentric Apollon 07:41 EDT
Heliocentric Earth square Heliocentric Neptune 08:53 EDT
Heliocentric Venus sextile Heliocentric Pluto 09:12 EDT
Sun trine Jupiter in right ascension 10:30 EDT
Void-of-Course Moon 12:49-16:39 EDT
Venus conjunct Hades in right ascension 13:25 EDT
Heliocentric Venus in 24th harmonic to Heliocentric Poseidon 15:02 EDT
Venus opposition Pluto in right ascension 15:08 EDT
Heliocentric Venus contraparallel Heliocentric Jupiter 15:31 EDT

May 4
Mercury aphelion 01:17 EDT
Heliocentric Venus square Heliocentric Chiron 02:05 EDT
Venus trine Apollon 08:01 EDT
Heliocentric Venus quincunx Heliocentric Admetos 08:50 EDT
Heliocentric Earth trine Heliocentric Saturn 09:24 EDT
True Lunar Node retrograde station 10:58 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury square Heliocentric Jupiter 12:53 EDT
Mercury trine Pluto 13:41 EDT
Pluto opposition Hades in right ascension 13:54 EDT
Heliocentric Venus square Heliocentric Vulcanus 15:10 EDT
Lunar Eclipse Full Moon 16:30 EDT
Void-of-Course Moon begins 17:37 EDT
Heliocentric Venus in 24th harmonic to Heliocentric Zeus 19:03 EDT
Sun contraparallel Neptune in right ascension 19:20 EDT
Sun contraparallel Neptune 19:22 EDT
Heliocentric Venus trine Heliocentric Hades 19:46 EDT
Mercury opposition Apollon in right ascension 21:53 EDT
Jupiter direct station 23:07 EDT
Heliocentric Venus conjunct Heliocentric Apollon 23:36 EDT

May 5
Mercury square Vulcanus 00:21 EDT
Mercury at minimum declination 01:46 EDT
Venus at maximum declination 04:39 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury conjunct Heliocentric Pluto 06:25 EDT
Heliocentric Mars sesquiquadrate Heliocentric Cupido 06:31 EDT
Sun square Neptune 08:49 EDT
Sun semisquare Kronos 09:44 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury semisquare Heliocentric Poseidon 09:45 EDT
Mercury semisextile Admetos 11:39 EDT
Heliocentric Venus semisquare Heliocentric Cupido 12:58 EDT
Heliocentric Venus square Heliocentric Mars 15:32 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury semisextile Heliocentric Chiron 16:30 EDT
Void-of-Course Moon ends 17:08 EDT
Mercury sextile Hades 19:59 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury quincunx Heliocentric Admetos 20:10 EDT
Mercury trine Pluto in right ascension 21:44 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury quincunx Heliocentric Vulcanus 23:52 EDT

May 6
Lunar perigee 00:32 EDT
Mercury sextile Hades in right ascension 00:36 EDT
Heliocentric Earth sesquiquadrate Heliocentric Kronos 01:28 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury opposition Heliocentric Hades 02:34 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury sextile Heliocentric Apollon 04:48 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury in 24th harmonic to Heliocentric Cupido 12:38 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury quincunx Heliocentric Mars 18:35 EDT
Heliocentric Earth parallel Heliocentric Neptune 18:54 EDT

May 7
Mercury opposition Apollon 03:14 EDT
Mars enters Cancer 04:45 EDT
Void-of-Course Moon 07:50-17:16 EDT
Mars at maximum declination 14:07 EDT
Mars sesquiquadrate Neptune 18:42 EDT
Mars conjunct Kronos 20:43 EDT
Mars conjunct Kronos in right ascension 20:47 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury sextile Heliocentric Venus 21:23 EDT

May 8
Sun semisquare Kronos in right ascension 00:44 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury semisquare Heliocentric Neptune 02:01 EDT
Venus semisquare True Lunar Node in right ascension 04:08 EDT
Moon at maximum south declination 04:10 EDT
Venus semisextile Vulcanus in right ascension 05:24 EDT
Sun semisquare Mars in right ascension 10:32 EDT
Venus in 24th harmonic to Saturn 12:37 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury enters Capricorn 15:24 EDT
Mercury sesquiquadrate Cupido in right ascension 18:19 EDT
Mercury sesquiquadrate Jupiter 22:30 EDT
Heliocentric Venus parallel Heliocentric Apollon 23:59 EDT

May 9
Heliocentric Mercury opposition Heliocentric Kronos 00:16 EDT
Heliocentric Earth sextile Heliocentric Jupiter 03:33 EDT
Mercury semisquare Uranus in right ascension 04:24 EDT
Heliocentric Venus enters Scorpio 04:34 EDT
Saturn quincunx Cupido 07:02 EDT
Void-of-Course Moon 09:03-18:46 EDT
Mercury square Vulcanus in right ascension 17:41 EDT
Heliocentric Venus trine Heliocentric Kronos 20:00 EDT
Mercury sesquiquadrate Cupido 23:28 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury sextile Heliocentric Uranus 22:30 EDT

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STOCKS TO WATCH: AH, DRL, JBHT, HZO, NMHC, PPP.

Armor Holdings Inc. (AH)
NYSE; Optionable
First Trade Date: 05/07/1999; 09:30 a.m.
Trading Strategy: We’re leaving this stock on the watch list because it’s First-Trade Solar Return is coming up this week, and because it hasn’t given us the sell-off yet that we have been expecting. With Saturn moving toward the First-Trade Ascendant and Mars conjunct First-Trade Hades, AH looks like a good candidate for a short sale. We are continuing to look for a daily close below the 50-day moving average. If it comes during this trading week we will sell AH short, setting our initial buy stop at 36.00.

Doral Financial Corporation (DRL)
NYSE; Optionable
First Trade Date: 01/08/2003; 09:30 a.m.
Trading Strategy: Transiting Mars will trine the DRL First-Trade Ascendant and Uranus this week, which may provide a short-term boost in price. We will add a long position to the Model Portfolio this week, setting our initial stop at 30.25 in tune with a 33.66 geocentric Uranus line.

J. B. Hunt Transportation Services (JBHT)
NASDAQ: Optionable
First Trade Date: 11/22/1983; 10:00 a.m.
Trading Strategy: With transiting Jupiter currently conjunct First-Trade Saturn and transiting Pluto still within orb of a conjunction to First-Trade Jupiter, JBHT remains a solid prospect for a long position. We’ll add one to the Model Portfolio this week, setting our initial stop on a geocentric 10.20 Vulcanus line at a price of 30.55.

Marinemax Inc. (HZO)
NYSE
First Trade Date: 06/03/1998; 09:30 a.m.
Trading Strategy: A geocentric Neptune line at 30.2 and a geocentric Apollon line at 19.89 work together to bound the price movement of this stock. The two lines have come together just above 28.00 to provide a support/resistance zone that has successfully been tested five times since February. We believe this zone will hold and HZO will make another move up; after placing a long position this week, we will set our initial stop just below that line at 28.00.

National Medical Health Card (NMHC)
NASDAQ
First Trade Date: 12/31/1999; 09:30 a.m.
Trading Strategy: Transiting Saturn is in opposition to the NMHC First-Trade Sun, offering an opportunity for prices to consolidate before moving up further. The key planetary lines to follow for this stock are geocentric Uranus at 31.48 and geocentric Cupido at 24.39. We plan to add a long position in NMHC to the Model Portfolio this week, setting our initial stop at 21.25.

Pogo Producing Company (PPP)
NYSE; Optionable
First Trade Date: 11/17/1978; 10:00 a.m.
Trading Strategy: In spite of what the cartoon possum said about meeting the enemy, we’re interested in this oil stock. Transiting Saturn is currently conjoining the PPP First-Trade Vulcanus, while transiting Jupiter is trine the First-Trade Chiron-Admetos conjunction and about to conjoin First-Trade Saturn. The relevant planetary lines in our analysis come from geocentric Saturn at 16.275, geocentric Vulcanus at 11.01, and geocentric Jupiter at 12.89. We’ll add a long position in PPP to the Model Portfolio this week and set our initial stop at 47.00.



FINANCIAL CYCLES (ISSN 1055-8527) is published by Taylor-Bost Consulting and edited by Tim Bost at 2831 Ringling Boulevard, Suite B-108, Sarasota, FL 34237 USA. Phone: 941-953-3545. Fax: 941-953-3732. Web: http://www.TimBost.com. Entire contents copyright 2004 Timothy L. Bost. No portion of this Weekly Email Update or its printed version may be reproduced without the publisher's written permission. Subscriptions to FINANCIAL CYCLES are $39.00 per month for weekly updates by email, payable by monthly billing to a major credit card. Advance payment options (by credit card, check, or money order) are $228 for 6 months, $432 for 1 year or $815 for two years. All subscriptions are payable in US funds only— Visa, MasterCard, American Express, Diners Club, and Discover/Novus accepted; please make checks or money orders payable to Taylor-Bost. PayPal is also accepted for online orders; to subscribe go to http://www.TimBost.com/newsletter/subscribe.html.

By providing a source of independent market analysis, the purpose of FINANCIAL CYCLES is to foster the growth of person-centered business and investment astrology; to enhance the development and dissemination of financial literacy and prosperity consciousness; and to explore the use of technical analysis and financial astrology in promoting an esoteric spiritual understanding of economic trends, geocosmic cycles, geopolitical events, and market movements. FINANCIAL CYCLES is a general interest publication which is prepared from astrological information, news reports, cycle projections, and market observations which are believed to be accurate and reliable, but which cannot be guaranteed. Portfolio and trading reports in this publication do not include taxes and transaction fees, which should be taken into consideration by prospective traders and investors. Even with accurate information, past performance is no guarantee of future results. Speculation in securities and commodities involves considerable financial risk, and readers who plan to invest or speculate in securities or commodities mentioned in FINANCIAL CYCLES have the complete responsibility for making themselves fully aware of all the risks involved before they invest. The editor may or may not have positions in the securities and commodities discussed in this newsletter, and the information in FINANCIAL CYCLES should in no way be understood or construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any products or securities, nor should the material published in this newsletter be considered buy/sell advice.

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posted by Tim Bost @ 5/02/2004 05:10:44 PM