FINANCIAL CYCLES WEEKLY UPDATE #0415 – April 11-17, 2004 with TIM BOST

COMMENT: This week we were presented with an interesting question: “What do you do when you aren’t getting big returns from the stock market? Shouldn’t you be putting more energy into other ways of making money?”
It’s a question worth pondering, and it brings to mind three key considerations. First of all, we’re not recommending that anyone limit their wealth creation approach to the stock market alone. There are several additional wealth creation strategies that make sense for advancing personal prosperity at this time, most notably entrepreneurial activities and involvement with the internet. Readers will find more details in our monograph on Strategies for Creating Personal Wealth in 2004, which is available on our website at www.TimBost.com/publications/books.html. All in all, however, we find that the stock market consistently provides opportunities for enhancing financial well-being for those who are willing to observe market trends astutely and then take careful action, and we are pleased that our astro-trading approach has proven effective in bull markets and bear markets alike. That’s why we are committed to providing insights into the markets that can benefit small scale traders with limited capital.
Secondly, we think it’s important to compare the performance of our Model Portfolio with what’s happening in the market as a whole. This has been a difficult trading environment for equities traders, especially coming on the heels of a strongly trending market. Since the first of the year, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 0.11%. The S&P 500 is up 2.47%, and the NASDAQ Composite is up 2.46%. These are hardly the kind of gains which provoke unbridled excitement about the prospects for getting rich quick in the stock market, especially if a buy-and-hold approach is the strategy of choice. During the same period, however, there have been profits for short-term swing traders to reap, although they have often been concealed amid booby-traps and general confusion. Our approach to the markets has helped us find those profitable opportunities and take advantage of many of them. Our Model Porfolio began the year with exactly $100,000.00 in equity; at the end of the trading day last Thursday it was up to $105,438.50. We’re not unhappy with that progress, especially since we are bringing in more than twice the returns of the NASDAQ or the S&P.
Finally, we need to remember what trading is all about. One of our underlying assumptions as traders is that we will take losses and that there will be periods of drawdown in our equity line. And as much as we try to discipline ourselves and keep emotions out of our trading room, it’s certainly frustrating at times to have to deal with so many losing trades and so few winners. But with disciplined money management we can usually keep those losses small, and while many of this year’s winning trades have been smaller than we would have wished, one thing is clear: if we aren’t in the market with some active trades on the table, we won’t be able to take advantage of the opportunities for big winners when they do arise.
In short, we have much to gain from the current market situation. If we are astute in our trading and wise with our money management, we can outperform the market by using the insights that astro-trading provides. We can profit more than just financially, too—as we learn the lessons that the current market is teaching us, we come out with a little bit more knowledge, a little bit more wisdom, and a whole lot more humility.


THE WEEK AHEAD

The earnings reports are starting to roll in at an impressive pace. During the coming week we should be getting reports from the likes of Gannett (GCI), Novellus Systems (NVLS), Tractor Supply (TSCO), Commerce Bancorp (CBH), Marshall & Ilsley (MI), Intel (INTC), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Linear Technology (LLTC), Adtran (ADTN), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Apple Computer (AAPL), Bank of America (BAC), Extreme Networks (EXTR), Harley-Davidson (HDI), Texas Instruments (TXN), D.R. Horton (DHI), National Commerce Financial (NCF), Citigroup (C), Continental Airlines (CAL), DoubleClick (DCLK), EMC Corporation (EMC), Johnson Controls (JCI), Southwest Airlines (LUV), Sun Microsystems (SUNW), IBM (IBM), Huntington Bancshares (HBAN), PepsiCo (PEP), Keycorp (KEY), Fifth Third Bancshares (FITB), National City Corporation (NCC), UnitedHealth Group (UNH), Delhi (DPH), and Nokia (NOK).
The week’s economic reports will include February Business Inventories, March Retail Sales, the March Consumer Price Index, March Housing Starts, March Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization, the February International Trade figures, the Philadelphia Fed’s April Survey, and the April Consumer Sentiment report from the University of Michigan in its preliminary form.
Although the current Mercury retrograde period may continue to distort the overall market picture in a way that blurs the clarity of trend indicators, the prevailing astrological bias for stocks this week is a positive one, with Mars square Jupiter in right ascension, Sun semisquare Venus, Venus square Jupiter, Sun conjunct Mercury, and Venus square Uranus in right ascension. We’re considering positions on both the long and the short side for our trading, however, since we are rapidly approaching the April 19 Solar Eclipse, an event that could bring a sharp reversal of market trend.
Have a great week!

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GLOBAL EQUITIES MARKETS LAST WEEK

Stocks around the globe followed up a positive week with one that featured rocky trading as Mercury went into retrograde motion. The Nikkei hit another significant high, and looked like it was going to be able to maintain trading above the psychologically significant 12,000 mark—at least until news of Japanese hostages being held in Iraq sent the Japanese market tumbling on Friday. Europe had to be satisfied with modest gains, while U.S. equities sold off across the board.

Dow Jones Industrial Average – down 0.27%
Dow Jones Transportation Average – down 1.34%
Dow Jones Utilities Average – down 0.71%
S& P 500 – down 0.22%
NASDAQ Composite Index – down 0.21%
Russell 2000 – down 0.92%
London FTSE-100 – up 0.54%
Paris CAC-40 – up 0.01%
Frankfurt DAX – up 0.15%
Sydney All Ordinaries – up 0.56%
Tokyo Nikkei – up 0.69%
Hong Kong Hang Seng Index – up 1.40%
Singapore Straits Times Index – up 1.14%


FINANCIAL CYCLES MODEL PORTFOLIO


POSITIONS CLOSED DURING THE PREVIOUS WEEK: PTNR, RCKY, GDYS.

We closed three portfolio positions during the previous week, with one winner and two losers producing a net loss of $652.00.

On April 5 we bought to cover 600 shares of Partner Communications (PTNR) at 8.25, taking a profit of $210.00 (a 4.07% gain in 15 trading days).

On April 7 we bought to cover 400 shares of Rocky Shoes & Boots Inc. (RCKY) at 25.75, taking a loss of $700.00 (a 7.29% loss in 6 trading days).

On April 8 we sold 600 shares of Goodys Family Clothing (GDYS) at 13.98, taking a loss of $162.00 (a 1.89% loss in 6 trading days).


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POSITIONS ADDED TO THE PORTFOLIO DURING THE PREVIOUS WEEK: CEPH, CHKP, OFIX, RIMM.

We added four long positions to the Model Portfolio during the previous week.

We bought 200 shares of Cephalon Inc. (CEPH) at 58.67 on 04/05/04, setting our initial stop at 55.90.

We bought 400 shares of Check Point Software Technologies Ltd. (CHKP) at 23.14 on 04/05/04, setting our initial stop at 21.42.

We bought 200 shares of Orthofix International N.V. (OFIX) at 50.00 on 04/05/04, setting our initial stop at 48.00.

We bought 100 shares of Research In Motion Ltd. (RIMM) at 106.00 on 04/05/04, setting our initial stop at 92.00.

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YEAR-IN-REVIEW MODEL PORTFOLIO ACTIVITY

Based on the Model Portfolio’s composition at the beginning of 2004, featuring positions with an acquisition cost basis of $53,947.50 ($66,022.50 in long positions less short liabilities of $12,075.00), we reduced our cash holdings in the Model Portfolio to $46,052.50 on January 1. This returned the total portfolio value to $100.000.00 as we began trading in 2004.

So far this year we have had a total of 59 completed trades, with 25 winners and 34 losers bringing us a total net profit of $1,211.50. The largest profit for a single trade has been $1,522.50; the largest single-trade loss has been $750.00; the average profit per trade has been $20.53. The mean duration of our trades has been 8.7 trading days.

During 2003 we had a total of 176 completed trades, with 99 winners and 77 losers bringing us a total net profit of $51,717.00. The largest profit for a single trade was $9,240.00; the largest single-trade loss was $1,170.00; the average profit per trade was $293.85. The mean duration of our trades was 10.1 trading days.

During 2002 we had a total of 195 completed trades, with 119 winners, 74 losers, and 2 break-even trades bringing us a total net profit of $50,956.00. The largest profit for a single trade was $5,100.00; the largest single-trade loss was $1,055.00; the average profit per trade was $261.31. The mean duration of our trades was 12.7 trading days.

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CURRENT POSITIONS IN THE MODEL PORTFOLIO

Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) – bought 100 shares at 78.50 on 03/30/04; currently 81.98. Raise stop to 81.00.

Fulton Financial Corporation (FULT) – bought 400 shares at 22.81 on 03/23/04; currently 22.07. Raise stop to 22.03 on a closing basis.

Hologic Inc. (HOLX) – bought 500 shares at 19.95 on 03/30/04; currently 21.04. Raise stop to 20.25.

Inter Parfums Inc. (IPAR) – bought 400 shares at 22.60 on 03/30/04; currently 25.86. Raise stop to 24.20.

QLT Inc. (QLTI) – bought 400 shares at 22.75 on 03/22/04; currently 28.42. Raise stop to 26.75.

Skyworks Solutions Inc. (SWKS) – bought 800 shares at 11.50 on 03/30/04; currently 12.23. Raise stop to 11.76.

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STRONGEST MARKET SECTORS LAST WEEK

Computer Peripherals; Memory Chips; Internet; Recreational Goods; Health Care Plans.

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WEAKEST MARKET SECTORS LAST WEEK

Healthcare Facility REITs; Retail REITs; Diversified & Industrial REITs; Office REITs; Property Management & Development.

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KEY ASTROLOGICAL EVENTS THIS WEEK

April 11
Venus semisquare Vulcanus 01:10 EDT
Venus in 24th harmonic to Hades 02:10 EDT
Mars square Jupiter in right ascension 03:11 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury sesquiquadrate Heliocentric Admetos 03:22 EDT
Sun semisextile Admetos 05:03 EDT
Sun square Vulcanus 06:59 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury conjunct Heliocentric Zeus 07:36 EDT
Sun sextile Hades 07:56 EDT
Heliocentric Venus contraparallel Heliocentric Apollon 08:57 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury in 24th harmonic to Heliocentric Apollon 09:36 EDT
Sun trine Pluto 13:34 EDT
Heliocentric Earth quincunx Heliocentric Admetos 14:44 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury sextile Heliocentric Cupido 15:01 EDT
Venus semisextile Saturn 15:28 EDT
Mercury contraparallel Pluto 18:01 EDT
Mercury contraparallel Pluto in right ascension 18:28 EDT
Heliocentric Earth contraparallel Heliocentric Venus 20:04 EDT
Mercury semisquare Mars in right ascension 21:43 EDT
Venus trine Zeus 21:53 EDT
True Lunar Node retrograde station 23:40 EDT
Void-of-Course Moon begins 23:46 EDT

April 12
Heliocentric Mars quincunx Heliocentric Neptune 00:31 EDT
Heliocentric Earth square Heliocentric Vulcanus 01:12 EDT
Mercury contraparallel Chiron 03:41 EDT
Mercury contraparallel Chiron in right ascension 04:07 EDT
Heliocentric Earth in 24th harmonic to Heliocentric Zeus 07:11 EDT
Heliocentric Earth trine Heliocentric Hades 08:03 EDT
Sun sextile Hades in right ascension 10:39 EDT
Void-of-Course Moon ends 12:33 EDT
Heliocentric Venus conjunct Heliocentric Jupiter 13:35 EDT
Venus sesquiquadrate Apollon 13:48 EDT
Mercury sextile Kronos 14:13 EDT
Heliocentric Earth conjunct Heliocentric Apollon 14:56 EDT
Sun opposition Apollon 15:04 EDT
Sun contraparallel Apollon in right ascension 15:06 EDT
Sun opposition Apollon in right ascension 15:06 EDT
Heliocentric Earth parallel Heliocentric Apollon 15:21 EDT
Sun contraparallel Apollon 15:29 EDT
Heliocentric Mars conjunct Heliocentric Saturn 16:09 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury trine Heliocentric Neptune 18:52 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury square Heliocentric Saturn 20:56 EDT
Mercury retrograde enters Aries 21:04 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury square Heliocentric Mars 21:37 EDT
Sun semisquare Venus 23:12 EDT

April 13
Sun trine Pluto in right ascension 04:32 EDT
Mercury conjunct 4/19/2004 Solar Eclipse Point 04:42 EDT
Mercury semisquare Mars 06:21 EDT
Sun parallel Jupiter in right ascension 06:22 EDT
Sun parallel Jupiter 06:23 EDT
Mercury sesquiquadrate Jupiter in right ascension 07:59 EDT
Venus sesquiquadrate Apollon in right ascension 08:56 EDT
Heliocentric Earth semisquare Heliocentric Cupido 11:46 EDT
Mercury square Chiron in right ascension 14:12 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury parallel Heliocentric Zeus 17:25 EDT
Mars trine Neptune 18:01 EDT
Sun semisquare Uranus in right ascension 20:16 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury semisextile Heliocentric Jupiter 20:20 EDT
Mars in 24th harmonic to Kronos 21:18 EDT
Venus conjunct 5/31/2003 Solar Eclipse Point 22:05 EDT
Mercury contraparallel Poseidon 22:26 EDT
Venus trine Zeus in right ascension 22:51 EDT
Mercury contraparallel Poseidon in right ascension 23:15 EDT

April 14
Sun sesquiquadrate Jupiter 00:56 EDT
Venus square Jupiter 04:59 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury sesquiquadrate Heliocentric Uranus 05:03 EDT
Sun sesquiquadrate Cupido 12:19 EDT
Saturn square Zeus 15:04 EDT
Void-of-Course Moon 15:27 – 17:24 EDT
Venus square Uranus in right ascension 15:49 EDT
Heliocentric Venus square Heliocentric Pluto 18:13 EDT
Venus opposition Cupido 18:40 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury sextile Heliocentric Pluto 20:14 EDT
Mercury square 11/23/2003 Solar Eclipse Antiscion 20:41 EDT
Sun sesquiquadrate Cupido in right ascension 21:32 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury semisextile Heliocentric Venus 22:03
Heliocentric Mercury in 24th harmonic to Heliocentric Poseidon 23:37 EDT
Sun square Vulcanus in right ascension 23:59 EDT

April 15
Jupiter sesquiquadrate Chiron in right ascension 01:02 EDT
Heliocentric Venus semisquare Heliocentric Poseidon 01:21 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury square Heliocentric Chiron 02:13 EDT
Heliocentric Venus trine Heliocentric Chiron 06:53 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury quincunx Heliocentric Admetos 07:58 EDT
Venus semisextile Saturn in right ascension 10:05 EDT
Sun square Chiron 10:30 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury square Heliocentric Vulcanus 10:58 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury in 24th harmonic to Heliocentric Zeus 12:42 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury trine Heliocentric Hades 12:58 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury contraparallel Heliocentric Jupiter 13:45 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury conjunct Heliocentric Apollon 14:58 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury contraparallel Heliocentric Venus 15:42 EDT
Venus opposition Cupido in right ascension 16:51 EDT
Sun contraparallel Uranus in right ascension 18:46 EDT
Sun contraparallel Uranus 18:47 EDT
Sun in 24th harmonic to True Lunar Node 18:53 EDT
Heliocentric Venus trine Heliocentric Admetos 18:58 EDT
Venus semisquare Vulcanus in right ascension 19:46 EDT
Heliocentric Venus parallel Heliocentric Jupiter 20:43 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury semisquare Heliocentric Cupido 21:07 EDT
Venus sesquiquadrate Chiron 21:42 EDT
Venus semisextile True Lunar Node in right ascension 23:12 EDT

April 16
Heliocentric Venus sextile Heliocentric Vulcanus 01:17 EDT
Heliocentric Venus in 24th harmonic to Heliocentric Zeus 04:56 EDT
Heliocentric Venus square Heliocentric Hades 05:30 EDT
Venus semisextile True Lunar Node 07:02 EDT
Heliocentric Venus semisextile Heliocentric Apollon 09:36 EDT
Void-of-Course Moon begins 09:42 EDT
Sun conjunct Mercury in right ascension 10:17 EDT
Sun conjunct Mercury 21:03 EDT
Heliocentric Earth conjunct Heliocentric Mercury 21:04 EDT
Mercury semisquare Venus in right ascension 23:13 EDT

April 17
Void-of-Course Moon ends 00:24 EDT
Mercury semisquare Venus 06:53 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury parallel Heliocentric Apollon 10:30 EDT
Moon at 0 degrees declination 13:25 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury enters Scorpio 16:32 EDT
Heliocentric Mars in 24th harmonic to Heliocentric Kronos 18:02 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury trine Heliocentric Kronos 23:58 EDT

April 18
Sun sesquiquadrate Jupiter in right ascension 00:23 EDT
Heliocentric Earth parallel Heliocentric Uranus 02:56 EDT
Admetos sextile Vulcanus 04:46 EDT
Saturn quincunx Cupido in right ascension 05:42 EDT
Sun square Chiron in right ascension 06:01 EDT
Jupiter square 5/31/2003 Solar Eclipse Point 10:18 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury semisquare Heliocentric Jupiter 10:46 EDT
Mercury in 24th harmonic to True Lunar Node 11:14 EDT
Mercury square Vulcanus in right ascension 15:37 EDT
Mercury square Chiron 17:55 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury trine Heliocentric Uranus 18:09 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury parallel Heliocentric Uranus 18:41 EDT
Sun parallel Mercury 22:10 EDT
Sun parallel Mercury in right ascension 22:11 EDT
Mercury sesquiquadrate Cupido in right ascension 22:21 EDT
Heliocentric Earth parallel Heliocentric Mercury 23:54 EDT



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STOCKS TO WATCH: AH, CVH, OHP, SONC, SPF, WLP.

Armor Holdings Inc. (AH)
NYSE; Optionable
First Trade Date: 05/07/1999; 09:30 a.m.
Trading Strategy: With Jupiter square First-Trade Pluto recently, this stock has had a dramatic price run-up, at least until late last week. We’re watching Saturn moving inexorably toward the First-Trade Ascendant, however, backed up by Mars getting ready to conjoin First-Trade Hades. This combination makes AH look like a good candidate for a short sale. If we see a close below the 50-day moving average during the next couple of weeks, we will sell AH short, setting our initial buy stop at 36.00.

Coventry Health Care Inc. (CVH)
NYSE; Optionable
First Trade Date: 05/15/2001; 9:30 a.m.
Trading Strategy: When CVH broke through its 50-day moving average and gapped upward recently, it also broke out to a higher increment of the geocentric 26.79 Chiron line which had been defining price resistance. We take that as a positive indication, especially with transiting Uranus currently sesquiquadrate the CVH Ascendant. There may be cause for caution in a couple of weeks, however, as Mercury’s direct station opposes the CVH First-Trade Apollon and as the First-Trade True Lunar Node gets the cumulative impact of a conjunction from transiting Saturn, a square from Zeus, and a semisquare from Admetos. Our plan is to add a long position in CVH to the Model Portfolio toward the end of this week, setting our initial stop at 41.00 and then tightening it up considerably once the trade is underway.

Oxford Health Plans Inc. (OHP)
NYSE: Optionable
First Trade Date: 04/18/2001; 09:30 a.m.
Trading Strategy: This stock was in the news during the past week as the transiting Lunar Node moved within orb of a sesquiquadrate to First-Trade Mars. That’s when word got out about a possible merger between Oxford Health Plans and Wellchoice. When that happened, the price of OHP shot up. With Venus about to conjoin First-Trade Jupiter there may be some more mileage left in the move, particularly because Apollon is sesquiquadrate First-Trade Jupiter, too. It’s interesting to note that OHP gapped over two increments of a geocentric 26.89 Chiron line, as well as an 88.1 geocentric Kronos line. Our plan is to add an immediate long position in OHP to the Model Portfolio, setting our initial stop at 53.25 in harmony with the Kronos line, which has defined major support for this stock repeatedly in the past.

Sonic Corporation (SONC)
NASDAQ; Optionable
First Trade Date: 02/28/1991; 09:30 a.m.
Trading Strategy: This restaurant stock has put in a nice upward move as transiting Jupiter has opposed its First-Trade Sun, but we think that positive trend will be short lived, particularly with Saturn square First-Trade Venus and Mars conjoining First-Trade Mars. A geocentric 23.03 Pluto line and a geocentric 23.21 Cupido line are the most active in defining support and resistance. If we get a close at 34.25 or below our plan is to sell this stock short, setting our initial buy stop at 36.75 in harmony with the Cupido line.

Standard Pacific Corporation (SPF)
NYSE; Optionable
First Trade Date: 07/26/1977; 10:00 a.m.
Trading Strategy: SPF has shown good strength recently, but with transiting Hades conjoining First-Trade Venus and squaring the First-Trade Ascendant, we’re not very optimistic about its short-range future prospects. Even so, the fundamentals are strong and this stock is trading well above its 50-day moving average. SPF has been trading at the speed of Venus as defined by a geocentric 81.9 line; geocentric 35.7 Chiron is defining support and resistance. We’ll let those planets determine our entry into this trade: if we get a close above the Chiron line at 58.25 we will add a long position, setting our initial stop at 56.25. On the other hand, a close below the Venus line at 56.25 will be our signal to sell SPF short, setting our initial buy stop at 58.25.

Wellpoint Health Network (WLP)
NYSE: Optionable
First Trade Date: 01/29/1993; 09:30 a.m.
Trading Strategy: The True Lunar Node will be forming a tight semisquare to the WLP First-Trade Venus until the end of May, with the First-Trade Moon picking up a semisquare from transiting Venus and a sesquiquadrate from transiting Jupiter. This is a very positive picture, so we will add a long position in WLP to the Model Portfolio early this week, setting our initial stop at 112.25, a price level determined by the intersection of a geocentric 19.46 Jupiter line and a geocentric 28.93 Neptune line.



FINANCIAL CYCLES (ISSN 1055-8527) is published by Taylor-Bost Consulting and edited by Tim Bost at 2831 Ringling Boulevard, Suite B-108, Sarasota, FL 34237 USA. Phone: 941-953-3545. Fax: 941-953-3732. Web: http://www.TimBost.com. Entire contents copyright 2004 Timothy L. Bost. No portion of this Weekly Email Update or its printed version may be reproduced without the publisher's written permission. Subscriptions to FINANCIAL CYCLES are $39.00 per month for weekly updates by email, payable by monthly billing to a major credit card. Advance payment options (by credit card, check, or money order) are $228 for 6 months, $432 for 1 year or $815 for two years. All subscriptions are payable in US funds only— Visa, MasterCard, American Express, Diners Club, and Discover/Novus accepted; please make checks or money orders payable to Taylor-Bost. PayPal is also accepted for online orders; to subscribe go to http://www.TimBost.com/newsletter/subscribe.html.

By providing a source of independent market analysis, the purpose of FINANCIAL CYCLES is to foster the growth of person-centered business and investment astrology; to enhance the development and dissemination of financial literacy and prosperity consciousness; and to explore the use of technical analysis and financial astrology in promoting an esoteric spiritual understanding of economic trends, geocosmic cycles, geopolitical events, and market movements. FINANCIAL CYCLES is a general interest publication which is prepared from astrological information, news reports, cycle projections, and market observations which are believed to be accurate and reliable, but which cannot be guaranteed. Portfolio and trading reports in this publication do not include taxes and transaction fees, which should be taken into consideration by prospective traders and investors. Even with accurate information, past performance is no guarantee of future results. Speculation in securities and commodities involves considerable financial risk, and readers who plan to invest or speculate in securities or commodities mentioned in FINANCIAL CYCLES have the complete responsibility for making themselves fully aware of all the risks involved before they invest. The editor may or may not have positions in the securities and commodities discussed in this newsletter, and the information in FINANCIAL CYCLES should in no way be understood or construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any products or securities, nor should the material published in this newsletter be considered buy/sell advice.

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posted by Tim Bost @ 4/11/2004 05:02:11 PM