FINANCIAL CYCLES WEEKLY UPDATE #0414 – April 4-10, 2004 with TIM BOST

COMMENT: In our last issue we noted that “the overall astrological outlook this week is bullish for stocks.” That certainly proved to be the case, with the NASDAQ, the Dow, the S&P all turning in strong performances, while the Russell 2000 surged ahead more than 5% on the week.
Much of the exuberance in U.S. markets coincided with positive economic news. Most notable was an optimistic development in the employment picture, with 308,000 new jobs being added to the U.S. economy in February. Unemployment actually increased, however, with 179,000 job seekers re-entering the labor force.
The biggest fly in the economic ointment was the mid-week decision by OPEC to cut its oil production by 4% this month. Adel Al-Jubeir, the Saudi foreign affairs adviser, said that the record high gasoline prices in the U.S. weren’t OPEC’s fault, since the U.S. doesn’t have enough domestic refining capacity to meet the big demands for gasoline. President Bush put out campaign commercials saying that higher gas prices are all John Kerry’s fault. And a report from Bear Stearns predicted that the skyrocketing prices at the pump will have a negative impact on the restaurant industry, since an increasing number of Americans will have to cut back on food in order to keep their gas tanks full. Ultimately, then, perhaps OPEC and Mr. Kerry should both be commended for taking a leading role in the war on obesity!
Speaking of obesity, it’s worth noting that $50 billion was added to the U.S. money supply during the past two weeks alone. With the output of the Treasury’s printing presses spewing nonstop into the world at large, it’s easy to see why the immediate trend in primary commodity prices is up, up, up! Gold is up, copper is up, silver is up, soybeans are up, oil is up, corn is up, wheat is up—there’s an increasing demand for all of them, of course, especially with China playing a bigger and bigger role in the world economy. But the flood of dollars (and staggering amounts of debt!) plays a huge role in sustaining this inflationary trend.
Isn’t anything getting cheaper? Labor is! On a global basis, the trend in labor costs is definitely deflationary. Just ask some of the 179,000 new job seekers in the U.S. In many cases, they’re standing in an unemployment line today because the jobs they once had have been outsourced to cheaper labor in India or Mexico. And if they manage to succeed in getting on the payroll for one of the 308,000 newly-created jobs in the U.S., it will almost certainly be at a cut in pay. So while the dollars in their payroll checks will be worth considerably less than they were a year or so ago, at least they’ll be bringing home fewer of those dollars to worry about.
Please understand that this is not just the result of inept economic management by the current regime in Washington. Nor is getting rid of one Bonesman and replacing him with another Bonesman in November likely to make a significant difference. What’s going on here is far more massive and far more fundamental—it’s a sea change in the core structure of our economy.
The jobs that are being lost are mainly manufacturing jobs. The new jobs being created, however, are typically not in manufacturing. More and more, a service and information economy is replacing the old manufacturing economy.
By the way, that’s really what’s behind the shift in the Dow Jones Industrial Average that takes effect as the new trading week gets underway. American International Group (AIG), Verizon Communications (VZ) and Pfizer (PFE) are in; International Paper (IP), Eastman Kodak (EK) and AT&T (T) are out. All three of the companies being removed from the Dow Jones Industrial Average are involved in manufacturing to some extent; AIG and VZ, on the other hand, are service companies, while PFE provides health service and research in addition to some manufacturing. So, in a reflection of the economy as a whole, the Dow is becoming less an industrial average and more an average of service companies.
But the word “service” is a bit misleading. The fact is, as manufacturing fades into the sunset, we are moving farther and farther away from an economy based on production and replacing it with an economy based on consumption. And instead of the capacity for lending and largesse that is empowered by productivity, we have turned instead to massive borrowing—at the personal level, at the household level, and at the national level. We’re piling up debt on top of debt as we borrow for ostentatious consumption, as we borrow for wars and the expansion of the American Empire, and as we borrow for investment and speculation.
In the absence of genuine productivity, the key to the whole precarious scenario is credit. As long as we continue borrowing wildly, we can continue to keep our heads firmly in the sand. We can ignore the fact that our luxuries will eventually have to be paid for. We can piously pretend that our military adventures are noble expressions of a higher purpose instead of just devastating by-products of greed and corruption. And we can even convince ourselves that insanely overvalued stock prices can only go higher and higher still.
But if the credit disappears—or even if it just costs us a little more to borrow—the whole house of cards can collapse with amazing speed. That’s not very likely to be a feel-good situation. But when it comes, it may at least give us an opportunity to rediscover real values in our personal lives, in our businesses, and in our national priorities.


THE WEEK AHEAD

During the coming week we anticipate earnings reports from Ruby Tuesday (RI), International Speedway (ISCA), Alcoa Inc. (AA), Brown & Brown (BRO), Electro Scientifc (ESIO), Christopher & Banks (CBK), Genentech, Inc. (DNA), International Speedway (ISCA), Yahoo! Inc. (YHOO), Constellation Brands (STZ), Research In Motion (RIMM), RPM International (RPM), Mercantile Bank (MBWM), Hancock Holding (HBHC), General Electric (GE), Utimate Electronics (ULTE), Cascade Bancorp (CACB), SunTrust Banks Inc. (STI), Oak Hill Financial (OAKF), Abbott Laboratories (ABT), and Schulman Inc. (SHLM).
The economic reports for the week will include the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index for March, the February Consumer Credit Report, March Import Prices, and February Wholesale Inventories. The International Monetary Fund will release its yearly Global Financial Stability Report at the Bank of England in London, and there will be interest rate meetings at the Bank of Japan, the Reserve Bank of Australia, and the Bank of England. The economic news will be limited somewhat by the Good Friday holiday in the U.S., Mexico, and much of Europe, plus other holiday market closings at the beginning of the week in Argentina, Hong Kong, and South Korea.
Astrologically we have a week that presents a few challenges for the market. A quick glance at the cosmic line-up on Tuesday provides ample reasons for suspecting that the market could get a rather severe shake-up that day: it’s not only the day that Mercury goes retrograde; it also features a Vulcanus station, a Mars-Cupido opposition, a Mars-Jupiter square, and Mercury at maximum declination. Whatever happens to the market trend that day, however, we will need to take it with a grain of salt, since a lunar void-of-course period throughout the trading day on Wednesday will make it difficult to determine the ultimate outcome. Later in the week, following the lunar perigee late Wednesday night, the astrological action will be dominated by Venus-Uranus dynamics, which typically bring a positive bias to trading. With Mercury’s retrograde motion just getting underway, though, this situation may have surprising results.
Mercury retrograde periods typically bring either a short-term reversal of market trends or a period of trading congestion, without a clearly defined trend. Since we are now trying to reestablish a bullish direction after a sell-off for a few weeks, our expectation this time around is that we will see increasing choppiness in the markets and much more uncertainty in trading trends while Mercury is retrograde. This is not an easy market to trade, and because we are currently holding a number of positions in the Model Portfolio, we run the risk of getting stopped out of trades a bit sooner than we would like under ideal circumstances. But that’s a risk we’re more than willing to take—we would rather get stopped out of trades with relatively small losses than suffer more extensive damage to our capital in the event of broader price swings.
Have a great week!

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GLOBAL EQUITIES MARKETS LAST WEEK

Stocks posted a strongly positive week around the globe, with the Nikkei hitting its highest level in two years, Paris and Frankfurt both up more than 4%, the Hang Seng pulling out of a four-week nosedive, and the Dow Industrials closing above their 50-day moving average for the first time since March 5.

Dow Jones Industrial Average – up 2.52%
Dow Jones Transportation Average – up 4.61%
Dow Jones Utilities Average – up 1.57%
S& P 500 – up 3.05%
NASDAQ Composite Index – up 4.96%
Russell 2000 – up 5.33%
London FTSE-100 – up 2.48%
Paris CAC-40 – up 4.11%
Frankfurt DAX – up 4.85%
Sydney All Ordinaries – up 0.39%
Tokyo Nikkei – up 0.38%
Hong Kong Hang Seng Index – up 1.99%
Singapore Straits Times Index – up 2.39%


FINANCIAL CYCLES MODEL PORTFOLIO


POSITIONS CLOSED DURING THE PREVIOUS WEEK: MATW.

We closed one portfolio position during the previous week, with one loser producing a net loss of $75.00.

On March 29 we bought to cover 300 shares of Matthews International Corporation Class A (MATW) at 32.25, taking a loss of $75.00 (a 0.78% loss in 4 trading days).


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POSITIONS ADDED TO THE PORTFOLIO DURING THE PREVIOUS WEEK: CAT, HOLX, IPAR, RCKY, SWKS, GDYS.

We added five long and one short positions to the Model Portfolio during the previous week.

We bought 100 shares of Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) at 78.50 on 03/30/04; setting our initial stop at 75.55.

We bought 500 shares of Hologic Inc. (HOLX) at 19.95 on 03/30/04, setting our initial stop at 18.78.

We bought 400 shares of Inter Parfums Inc. (IPAR) at 22.60 on 03/30/04, setting our initial stop at 21.84.

We sold short 400 shares of Rocky Shoes & Boots Inc. (RCKY) at 24.00 on 03/30/04, setting our initial buy stop at 28.53.

We bought 800 shares of Skyworks Solutions Inc. (SWKS) at 11.50 on 03/30/04, setting our initial stop at 10.37.

We bought 600 shares of Goodys Family Clothing (GDYS) at 14.25 on 03/31/04, setting our initial stop at 13.23.

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YEAR-IN-REVIEW MODEL PORTFOLIO ACTIVITY

Based on the Model Portfolio’s composition at the beginning of 2004, featuring positions with an acquisition cost basis of $53,947.50 ($66,022.50 in long positions less short liabilities of $12,075.00), we reduced our cash holdings in the Model Portfolio to $46,052.50 on January 1. This returned the total portfolio value to $100.000.00 as we began trading in 2004.

So far this year we have had a total of 56 completed trades, with 24 winners and 32 losers bringing us a total net profit of $1,853.50. The largest profit for a single trade has been $1,522.50; the largest single-trade loss has been $750.00; the average profit per trade has been $33.10. The mean duration of our trades has been 8.7 trading days.

During 2003 we had a total of 176 completed trades, with 99 winners and 77 losers bringing us a total net profit of $51,717.00. The largest profit for a single trade was $9,240.00; the largest single-trade loss was $1,170.00; the average profit per trade was $293.85. The mean duration of our trades was 10.1 trading days.

During 2002 we had a total of 195 completed trades, with 119 winners, 74 losers, and 2 break-even trades bringing us a total net profit of $50,956.00. The largest profit for a single trade was $5,100.00; the largest single-trade loss was $1,055.00; the average profit per trade was $261.31. The mean duration of our trades was 12.7 trading days.

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CURRENT POSITIONS IN THE MODEL PORTFOLIO

Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) – bought 100 shares at 78.50 on 03/30/04; currently 81.20. Raise stop to 78.35.

Fulton Financial Corporation (FULT) – bought 400 shares at 22.81 on 03/23/04; currently 22.55. Raise stop to 21.85 on a closing basis.

Goodys Family Clothing (GDYS) – bought 600 shares at 14.25 on 03/31/04; currently 14.45. Raise stop to 14.04.

Hologic Inc. (HOLX) – bought 500 shares at 19.95 on 03/30/04; currently 20.55. Raise stop to 19.55.

Inter Parfums Inc. (IPAR) – bought 400 shares at 22.60 on 03/30/04; currently 25.19. Raise stop to 23.00.

Partner Communications (PTNR) – sold short 600 shares at 8.60 on 03/15/04; currently 8.14. Lower buy stop to 8.25.

QLT Inc. (QLTI) – bought 400 shares at 22.75 on 03/22/04; currently 27.80. Raise stop to 24.25.

Rocky Shoes & Boots Inc. (RCKY) – sold short 400 shares at 24.00 on 03/30/04; currently 24.95. Lower buy stop to 25.75.

We bought 800 shares of Skyworks Solutions Inc. (SWKS) – bought 800 shares at 11.50 on 03/30/04; currently 11.89. Raise stop to 11.26.

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STRONGEST MARKET SECTORS LAST WEEK

Consumer Services; Diversified Communications Services; Internet Information Providers; Specialty Eateries; Information & Delivery Services.

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WEAKEST MARKET SECTORS LAST WEEK

Closed End Debt Funds; Midwest Regional Banks; Home Health Care; Department Stores; Dairy Products.

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KEY ASTROLOGICAL EVENTS THIS WEEK

April 4
Heliocentric Venus opposition Heliocentric Uranus 01:33 EST
Daylight Saving Time begins 02:00 EST
Heliocentric Mercury semisquare Heliocentric Vulcanus 03:09 EDT
Void-of-Course Moon ends 03:52 EDT
Sun sextile Neptune 04:06 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury semisextile Heliocentric Zeus 04:22 EDT
Mars trine Zeus in right ascension 05:30 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury semisquare Heliocentric Apollon 06:00 EDT
Mars square Uranus in right ascension 08:00 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury square Heliocentric Cupido 10:13 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury sextile Heliocentric Mars 14:02 EDT
Moon at 0° declination 15:37 EDT
Mars conjunct 5/31/2003 Solar Eclipse Point 17:40 EDT
Venus opposition 11/23/2003 Solar Eclipse Point 18:31 EDT
Mercury semisextile Venus in right ascension 21:59 EDT
Mars semisextile Saturn in right ascension 23:32 EDT

April 5
Heliocentric Mercury parallel Heliocentric Venus 04:22 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury quincunx Heliocentric Neptune 08:22 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury sextile Heliocentric Saturn 08:45 EDT
Mercury semisextile Venus 09:52 EDT
Heliocentric Earth contraparallel Heliocentric Jupiter 16:26 EDT
Void-of-Course Moon begins 17:26 EDT
Jupiter contraparallel Apollon in right ascension 18:22 EDT
Heliocentric Earth semisextile Heliocentric Jupiter 18:23 EDT
Heliocentric Venus sextile Heliocentric Poseidon 19:25 EDT
Jupiter contraparallel Apollon 22:10 EDT
Heliocentric Venus sesquiquadrate Heliocentric Chiron 22:14 EDT

April 6
Vulcanus direct station 00:09 EDT
Mars opposition Cupido 00:14 EDT
Mars square Jupiter 01:16 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury conjunct Heliocentric Jupiter 01:45 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury contraparallel Heliocentric Uranus 01:48 EDT
Heliocentric Earth semisextile Heliocentric Mercury 03:41 EDT
Sun in 24th harmonic to Mercury 05:05 EDT
Void-of-Course Moon ends 06:24 EDT
Jupiter square Cupido 10:12 EDT
Mars semisquare Vulcanus in right ascension 11:11 EDT
Mars opposition Cupido in right ascension 11:53 EDT
Mercury at maximum declination 14:05 EDT
Venus semisextile Kronos in right ascension 15:54 EDT
Mercury retrograde station 16:28 EDT
Mars semisextile True Lunar Node in right ascension 19:09 EDT
Heliocentric Venus semisquare Heliocentric Vulcanus 19:17 EDT
Mars sesquiquadrate Chiron 21:50 EDT
Heliocentric Venus semisextile Heliocentric Zeus 22:50 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury square Heliocentric Pluto 23:49 EDT

April 7
True Lunar Node direct station 01:53 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury contraparallel Heliocentric Apollon 02:20 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury semisquare Heliocentric Poseidon 02:43 EDT
Heliocentric Venus semisquare Heliocentric Apollon 03:33 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury trine Heliocentric Chiron 03:55 EDT
Void-of-Course Moon begins 07:06 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury trine Heliocentric Admetos 09:22 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury sextile Heliocentric Vulcanus 11:45 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury in 24th harmonic to Heliocentric Zeus 13:08 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury square Heliocentric Hades 13:19 EDT
Heliocentric Earth sesquiquadrate Heliocentric Uranus 14:48 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury semisextile Heliocentric Apollon 14:58 EDT
Heliocentric Venus square Heliocentric Cupido 15:56 EDT
Hades semisextile Vulcanus 17:29 EDT
Mars semisextile True Lunar Node 20:03 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury in 24th harmonic to Heliocentric Venus 22:17 EDT
Lunar Perigee 22:24 EDT
Heliocentric Earth contraparallel Heliocentric Mercury 23:32 EDT

April 8
Heliocentric Venus contraparallel Heliocentric Uranus 03:37 EDT
Cupido sesquiquadrate Vulcanus in right ascension 05:04 EDT
Sun sextile Neptune in right ascension 06:26 EDT
Void-of-Course Moon ends 07:50 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury parallel Heliocentric Jupiter 11:17 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury sesquiquadrate Heliocentric Neptune 20:35 EDT

April 9
U.S. markets closed for Good Friday holiday
Venus square Uranus 05:52 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury enters Libra 06:52 EDT
Mars parallel Kronos in right ascension 11:42 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury square Heliocentric Kronos 12:42 EDT
Heliocentric Venus sextile Heliocentric Mars 13:55 EDT
Mars parallel Kronos 15:25
Sun semisquare Uranus 16:44 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury in 24th harmonic to Heliocentric Jupiter 17:33 EDT
Void-of-Course Moon begins 20:29 EDT
Heliocentric Earth sextile Heliocentric Pluto 21:15 EDT

April 10
Heliocentric Mercury quincunx Heliocentric Uranus 03:01 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury contraparallel Heliocentric Zeus 04:33 EDT
Venus quincunx Poseidon 06:17 EDT
Heliocentric Venus quincunx Heliocentric Neptune 06:51 EDT
Sun semisextile Admetos in right ascension 08:41 EDT
Void-of-Course Moon ends 09:33 EDT
Heliocentric Earth in 24th harmonic to Heliocentric Poseidon 09:38 EDT
Heliocentric Venus sextile Heliocentric Saturn 10:20 EDT
Venus quincunx Poseidon in right ascension 14:02 EDT
Mars sesquiquadrate Chiron in right ascension 15:04 EDT
Heliocentric Earth square Heliocentric Chiron 16:35 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury semisextile Heliocentric Poseidon 19:51 EDT
Moon at maximum south declination 20:48 EDT
Venus in 24th harmonic to Admetos 22:54 EDT
Heliocentric Earth in 24th harmonic to Heliocentric Mercury 23:25 EDT

April 11
Venus semisquare Vulcanus 01:10 EDT
Venus in 24th harmonic to Hades 02:10 EDT
Mars square Jupiter in right ascension 03:11 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury sesquiquadrate Heliocentric Admetos 03:22 EDT
Sun semisextile Admetos 05:03 EDT
Sun square Vulcanus 06:59 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury conjunct Heliocentric Zeus 07:36 EDT
Sun sextile Hades 07:56 EDT
Heliocentric Venus contraparallel Heliocentric Apollon 08:57 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury in 24th harmonic to Heliocentric Apollon 09:36 EDT
Sun trine Pluto 13:34 EDT
Heliocentric Earth quincunx Heliocentric Admetos 14:44 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury sextile Heliocentric Cupido 15:01 EDT
Venus semisextile Saturn 15:28 EDT
Mercury contraparallel Pluto 18:01 EDT
Mercury contraparallel Pluto in right ascension 18:28 EDT
Heliocentric Earth contraparallel Heliocentric Venus 20:04 EDT
Mercury semisquare Mars in right ascension 21:43 EDT
Venus trine Zeus 21:53 EDT
True Lunar Node retrograde station 23:40 EDT
Void-of-Course Moon begins 23:46 EDT

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STOCKS TO WATCH: CEPH, CHKP, OFIX,RIMM.


Cephalon Inc. (CEPH)
NASDAW; Optionable
First Trade Date: 04/25/1991; 09:30 a.m.
Trading Strategy: Saturn has recently completed its passage over the CEPH First-Trade Ascendant, and Jupiter is currently hitting the First-Trade IC. This combination creates a perfect set-up for a long trade, with additional enhancement coming from Jupiter’s upcoming station, which will be semisquare First-Trade Chiron. We will add a long position to the Model Portfolio early this week, setting our initial stop at 55.90, in tune with a 17.69 geocentric Zeus line.

Check Point Software Technologies Ltd. (CHKP)
NASDAQ; Optionable
First Trade Date: 06/28/1996; 9:30 a.m.
Trading Strategy: Transiting Saturn is currently conjoining the CHKP First-Trade Sun, just as this stock is pushing ahead to challenge the highs it set earlier this year. We believe that as Saturn moves past the conjunction and get out of the way, CHKP will be free to break out into new price territory—and with transiting Pluto in opposition to First-Trade Mercury, the positive move could be a big one! We’ll use a geocentric 24.08 Pluto line to set our initial stop at a 21.42 price level as we add a long position in CHKP to the Model Portfolio this week.

Orthofix International N.V. (OFIX)
NASDAQ
First Trade Date: 04/24/1992; 09:30 a.m.
Trading Strategy: The situation with OFIX is similar to the current transits to the CEPH First-Trade chart: Saturn has left the First-Trade Ascendant, while Jupiter is crossing the First-Trade IC. In the case of OFIX, however, there’s some dramatic extra energy during the next few months as transiting Uranus forms a semisquare to First-Trade Venus—a classic indicator of a positive price trend. With confirmation from the fact that this stock has just broken out above its 50-day moving average, we’ll add a long position in OFIX to the Model Portfolio this week. A geocentric 28.8 Uranus line has done a good job of articulating the trading range for this stock, so we’ll use its guidance in setting our intial stop at 48.00.

Research In Motion Ltd. (RIMM)
NASDAQ; Optionable
First Trade Date: 02/04/1999; 09:30 a.m.
Trading Strategy: We made a profitable trade in RIMM in early February when transiting Saturn was crossing the First-Trade IC. Now Saturn is back in the same position, so it’s time to put on another long position. It would have been nice to get back into this stock before last Friday’s big break-out move, but that move gave us an extra edge even so. RIMM closed on Friday exactly on the 24.31 geocentric Cupido line which has been repeatedly significant in this stock’s trading history—RIMM met resistance on this line last August, then broke out above it in September; in December it gapped through another increment of the same line. Friday’s close exactly on the line suggests that RIMM will either meet significance at this point and reverse back to the downside, or that it will penetrate the line with a lot of force and explode to even higher price levels. While we think the latter scenario will come to pass, we’re going to wait for confirmation from the stock itself. If RIMM closes above 104.38 on Monday, we will add a long position to the Model Portfolio, setting our initial stop at 92.00. If we get two consecutive closes below 104.14, however, we will sell RIMM short, setting our initial buy stop at 112.12.



FINANCIAL CYCLES (ISSN 1055-8527) is published by Taylor-Bost Consulting and edited by Tim Bost at 2831 Ringling Boulevard, Suite B-108, Sarasota, FL 34237 USA. Phone: 941-953-3545. Fax: 941-953-3732. Web: http://www.TimBost.com. Entire contents copyright 2004 Timothy L. Bost. No portion of this Weekly Email Update or its printed version may be reproduced without the publisher's written permission. Subscriptions to FINANCIAL CYCLES are $39.00 per month for weekly updates by email, payable by monthly billing to a major credit card. Advance payment options (by credit card, check, or money order) are $228 for 6 months, $432 for 1 year or $815 for two years. All subscriptions are payable in US funds only— Visa, MasterCard, American Express, Diners Club, and Discover/Novus accepted; please make checks or money orders payable to Taylor-Bost. PayPal is also accepted for online orders; to subscribe go to http://www.TimBost.com/newsletter/subscribe.html.

By providing a source of independent market analysis, the purpose of FINANCIAL CYCLES is to foster the growth of person-centered business and investment astrology; to enhance the development and dissemination of financial literacy and prosperity consciousness; and to explore the use of technical analysis and financial astrology in promoting an esoteric spiritual understanding of economic trends, geocosmic cycles, geopolitical events, and market movements. FINANCIAL CYCLES is a general interest publication which is prepared from astrological information, news reports, cycle projections, and market observations which are believed to be accurate and reliable, but which cannot be guaranteed. Portfolio and trading reports in this publication do not include taxes and transaction fees, which should be taken into consideration by prospective traders and investors. Even with accurate information, past performance is no guarantee of future results. Speculation in securities and commodities involves considerable financial risk, and readers who plan to invest or speculate in securities or commodities mentioned in FINANCIAL CYCLES have the complete responsibility for making themselves fully aware of all the risks involved before they invest. The editor may or may not have positions in the securities and commodities discussed in this newsletter, and the information in FINANCIAL CYCLES should in no way be understood or construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any products or securities, nor should the material published in this newsletter be considered buy/sell advice.

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posted by Tim Bost @ 4/04/2004 12:06:31 AM