FINANCIAL CYCLES WEEKLY UPDATE #0412 – March 21-27, 2004 with TIM BOST

COMMENT: This is clearly a tough time for democracy. The attempts to establish representative government in Iraq, which have been marred by bombing, assassinations, and other disruptions, have been far from successful. The recent bombings in Spain clearly impacted the Spanish elections, creating a major shift in the geopolitical balance. In Taiwan President Chen Shui-bian survived an assassination attempt on the eve of the election, and squeaked through to a narrow victory in a vote that is now being hotly disputed in a scene reminiscent of the Bush-Gore debacle in the U.S. four years ago. South Korea’s impeachment of its president looked more like a barroom brawl than a parliamentary procedure. And the Israeli assassination of the founder of Hamas sent a clear message that violence is still the preferred way to handle disputes with neighbors.
In each case, acts of real or implicit violence have taken the place of reasoned debate and have become springboards for shifts in popular opinion. The same kind of thing can easily happen in the U.S. or in other western democracies as well, and whether the violence has a foreign or a domestic source ultimately seems to be irrelevant. Either way, the lives of innocent victims are shattered or ended, and the direction of social institutions get altered sharply.
The message here is that the violence is more likely to continue than to abate, especially with the upcoming Pluto station, Mars/Uranus square, and Sun/Saturn square. And the directions of countries and international institutions are the only things that can get changed in the process—the markets become more volatile, too!
No matter what your politics are, and no matter how removed you currently feel from the world’s violent outbreaks, it’s wise to be prepared for disruptions to the normal market flow. Remember that the markets typically tend to absorb such turbulence rather quickly, and be sure to pay attention to the real message that the prices are giving you, rather than to your emotions or opinions, when you consider your trading positions.
Next week’s issue will include a report on the Astro-Economics Conference which was just held this past weekend at Marco Island, Florida. Also be sure to check the “Latest News” section of our website at www.TimBost.com each day. We’re updating it daily now, with a recap of the day’s astro-calendar and a summary of the trades we’ve taken. It’s information you won’t want to miss, especially if you’re tracking the stocks in our Model Portfolio and Watch List on a daily basis.


THE WEEK AHEAD

It’s going to be a fairly inconsequential week for earnings reports, with not quite 400 companies scheduled to put out numbers. Among the notable ones will be Micron Technology (MU), Carnival Cruise Lines (CCL), ConAgra (CAG), Red Hat (RHAT), Sharper Image (SHRP), Goldman Sachs (GS), Family Dollar Stores (FDO), and Walgreen (WAG). During the next couple of weeks, however, we should start to get an increasing number of earnings preannouncements, as industry spin doctors try to keep analysts and investors looking at the bright side or work to soften the blow of upcoming bad news.
The economic reports scheduled for this week have a much bigger potential for impacting market action. We’ll get the Q4 GDP, February Durable Goods Orders, February New and Existing Home Sales, February Personal Spending and Personal Income, and the latest word from the University of Michigan on Consumer Confidence.
The astrological action for the week is where we get a much stronger sense of drama. Monday featured a void-of-course Moon starting at about 45 minutes into the trading day; we won’t be entering any new trades that day. The energy picks up sharply on Tuesday with two eclipse contacts and a heliocentric Mercury/Mars conjunction, but it’s only a precursor to Wednesday’s Pluto retrograde station—a major market mover. We’re expecting this station to pull U.S. equities down, but trading it will be quite difficult, especially with another lunar void on Thursday morning. On Friday a Sun/Saturn square also works to bring negative energy to stock prices, particularly because it is intensified by Saturday’s lunar apogee and Mars simultaneously parallel Hades and square Uranus (with the Moon at maximum declination) later in the weekend. We wouldn’t be surprised to see share prices significantly lower by the end of the week.
Hold on to your hats, and have a great week!

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GLOBAL EQUITIES MARKETS LAST WEEK

Share prices were up last week in Sydney, Tokyo, and Singapore, but most of the rest of the world continued to lose ground. The NASDAQ and the Dow Transports were among the indexes hit most heavily.

Dow Jones Industrial Average – down 0.52%
Dow Jones Transportation Average – down 2.66%
Dow Jones Utilities Average – up 1.57%
S& P 500 – down 0.96%
NASDAQ Composite Index – down 2.23%
Russell 2000 – down 2.08%
London FTSE-100 – down 1.11%
Paris CAC-40 – down 1.32%
Frankfurt DAX – down 2.46%
Sydney All Ordinaries – up 0.81%
Tokyo Nikkei – up 2.29%
Hong Kong Hang Seng Index – down 1.10%
Singapore Straits Times Index – up 0.22%


FINANCIAL CYCLES MODEL PORTFOLIO


POSITIONS CLOSED DURING THE PREVIOUS WEEK: GTK, AMTD, FLSH, LIOX

We closed four portfolio positions during the previous week, with two winners and two losers producing a net loss of $105.00.

On March 15 we sold 200 shares of Gtech Holdings Corporation (GTK) at 57.35, taking a profit of $20.00 (a 0.17% gain in 2 trading days).

On March 17 we bought to cover 500 shares of Ameritrade Holding Corporation (AMTD) at 15.25, taking a profit of $875.00 (a 10.29% gain in 9 trading days).

On March 19 we sold 500 shares of M-Systems Flash Disk Pioneers (FLSH) at 19.00, taking a loss of $750.00 (a 7.32% loss in 9 trading days).

On Mach 19 we bought to cover 1,000 shares of Lionbridge Technologies Inc. (LIOX) at 9.60, taking a loss of $250.00 (a 2.67% loss in 3 trading days).


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POSITIONS ADDED TO THE PORTFOLIO DURING THE PREVIOUS WEEK: CCBI, PTNR, SHRP, DNA, HRS, LIOX.

We added two long and four short positions to the Model Portfolio during the previous week.

We bought 500 shares of Commercial Capital Bancorp (CCBI) at 20.35 on 03/15/04, setting our initial stop at 19.44.

We sold short 600 shares of Partner Communications (PTNR) at 8.60 on 03/15/04, setting our initial buy stop at 8.75.

We sold short 300 shares of Sharper Image Corporation (SHRP) at 34.87 on 03/15/04, setting our initial buy stop at 37.38.

We bought 100 shares of Genentech Inc. (DNA) at 102.74 on 03/16/04, setting our initial stop at 99.99.

We sold short 200 shares of Harris Corporation (HRS) at 44.88 on 03/16/04, setting our initial buy stop at 49.27.

We sold short 1,000 shares of Lionbridge Technologies Inc. (LIOX) at 9.35 on 03/16/04, setting our initial buy stop at 9.60.

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YEAR-IN-REVIEW MODEL PORTFOLIO ACTIVITY

Based on the Model Portfolio’s composition at the beginning of 2004, featuring positions with an acquisition cost basis of $53,947.50 ($66,022.50 in long positions less short liabilities of $12,075.00), we reduced our cash holdings in the Model Portfolio to $46,052.50 on January 1. This returned the total portfolio value to $100.000.00 as we began trading in 2004.

So far this year we have had a total of 47 completed trades, with 20 winners and 27 losers bringing us a total net profit of $1,658.50. The largest profit for a single trade has been $1,522.50; the largest single-trade loss has been $750.00; the average profit per trade has been $35.29. The mean duration of our trades has been 8.7 trading days.

During 2003 we had a total of 176 completed trades, with 99 winners and 77 losers bringing us a total net profit of $51,717.00. The largest profit for a single trade was $9,240.00; the largest single-trade loss was $1,170.00; the average profit per trade was $293.85. The mean duration of our trades was 10.1 trading days.

During 2002 we had a total of 195 completed trades, with 119 winners, 74 losers, and 2 break-even trades bringing us a total net profit of $50,956.00. The largest profit for a single trade was $5,100.00; the largest single-trade loss was $1,055.00; the average profit per trade was $261.31. The mean duration of our trades was 12.7 trading days.

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CURRENT POSITIONS IN THE MODEL PORTFOLIO

Centex Corporation (CTX) – bought 100 shares at 94.50 on 02/05/04; split 2-for-1 on 03/15/04; currently 200 shares at 54.34. Raise stop to 54.15.

Commercial Capital Bancorp (CCBI) – bought 500 shares at 20.35 on 03/15/04; currently 21.82. Raise stop to 20.75.

ConMed Corporation (CNMD) – bought 400 shares at 28.64 on 03/10/04; currently 28.18. Raise stop to 27.90.

Genentech Inc. (DNA) – bought 100 shares at 102.74 on 03/16/04; currently 104.85. Raise stop to 103.15.

Harris Corporation (HRS) – sold short 200 shares at 44.88 on 03/16/04; currently 46.00. Lower buy stop to 46.47.

Medical Action Industries, Inc. (MDCI) – bought 500 shares at 20.00 on 03/10/04; currently 19.80. Raise stop to 19.45.

Partner Communications (PTNR) – sold short 600 shares at 8.60 on 03/15/04; currently 8.38. Lower buy stop to 8.57.

Sharper Image Corporation (SHRP) – sold short 300 shares at 34.87 on 03/15/04; currently 33.90. Lower buy stop to 34.35.

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STRONGEST MARKET SECTORS LAST WEEK

Silver; Gold; Steel & Iron; Computer Based Systems; Small Tools & Accessories.

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WEAKEST MARKET SECTORS LAST WEEK

Trucking; Housewares & Accessories; Broadline Semiconductors; Cement; Catalog & Mail Order Houses.

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KEY ASTROLOGICAL EVENTS THIS WEEK

March 21
Heliocentric Earth square Heliocentric Kronos 00:28 EST
Mercury perihelion 00:39 EST
Heliocentric Mercury in 24th harmonic to Heliocentric Mars 02:24 EST
Mars enters Gemini 02:39 EST
Mars semisextile Kronos 04:52 EST
Moon at 0° north declination 05:12 EST
Mercury semisextile Venus 05:46 EST
Sun trine Jupiter in right ascension 07:41 EST
Mars square 04/19/04 Solar Eclipse Antiscion 09:31 EST
Heliocentric Mercury opposition Heliocentric Pluto 12:15 EST
Heliocentric Mercury quincunx Heliocentric Chiron 14:07 EST
Heliocentric Mercury sesquiquadrate Heliocentric Poseidon 14:32 EST
Venus perihelion 17:11 EST
Heliocentric Mars trine Heliocentric Uranus 17:35 EST
Heliocentric Mercury semisextile Heliocentric Admetos 19:02 EST
Heliocentric Mercury semisextile Heliocentric Vulcanus 20:40 EST
Heliocentric Mercury conjunct Heliocentric Hades 21:37 EST
Mercury square 12/04/02 Solar Eclipse Antiscion 22:11 EST
Heliocentric Mercury trine Heliocentric Apollon 22:46 EST

March 22
Jupiter trine True Lunar Node 00:28 EST
Sun semisquare Neptune in right ascension 07:42 EST
Mercury parallel Jupiter in right ascension 09:51 EST
Mercury parallel Jupiter 09:54 EST
Void-of-Course Moon begins 10:13 EST
Heliocentric Venus semisextile Heliocentric Saturn 11:50 EST
Mercury sextile Neptune in right ascension 12:23 EST
Venus semisquare Kronos in right ascension 14:44 EST
Heliocentric Mercury in 24th harmonic to Heliocentric Saturn 16:30 EST
Heliocentric Venus opposition Heliocentric Neptune 17:08 EST
Heliocentric Mercury sesquiquadrate Heliocentric Neptune 17:51 EST
Heliocentric Mercury semisquare Heliocentric Venus 18:05 EST
Mercury semisquare Uranus 19:23 EST

March 23
Heliocentric Mercury enters Cancer 00:49 EST
Mars opposition 11/23/03 Solar Eclipse Point 00:51 EST
Void-of-Course Moon ends 01:09 EST
Mercury contraparallel Apollon in right ascension 03:51 EST
Mercury contraparallel Apollon 04:08 EST
Heliocentric Mercury conjunct Heliocentric Kronos 04:25 EST
Heliocentric Earth quincunx Heliocentric Uranus 05:08 EST
Heliocentric Mercury trine Heliocentric Uranus 12:44 EST
Mercury square 05/31/03 Solar Eclipse Antiscion 14:03 EST
Heliocentric Earth square Heliocentric Mercury 14:10 EST
Heliocentric Mercury conjunct Heliocentric Mars 16:18 EST
Heliocentric Mercury trine Heliocentric Poseidon 23:48 EST

March 24
True Lunar Node direct station 00:54 EST
Mercury semisextile Admetos in right ascension 01:42 EST
Heliocentric Venus semisextile Heliocentric Jupiter 03:34 EST
Heliocentric Mercury semisquare Heliocentric Admetos 04:21 EST
Mercury semisextile Admetos 05:08 EST
Heliocentric Mercury in 24th harmonic to Heliocentric Vulcanus 06:00 EST
Pluto retrograde station in right ascension 06:29 EST
Heliocentric Mercury square Heliocentric Zeus 06:53 EST
Heliocentric Mercury in 24th harmonic to Heliocentric Hades 06:59 EST
Mercury sextile Hades 07:43 EST
Mars parallel Vulcanus in right ascension 08:25 EST
Mercury square Vulcanus 10:01 EST
Heliocentric Venus semisquare Heliocentric Kronos 10:06 EST
Pluto retrograde station 10:09 EST
Mars parallel Vulcanus 10:34 EST
Heliocentric Mercury quincunx Heliocentric Cupido 11:15 EST
Sun quincunx Poseidon in right ascension 12:11 EST
Venus square Neptune in right ascension 14:23 EST
Heliocentric Earth square Heliocentric Mars 14:32 EST
Uranus sesquiquadrate Apollon in right ascension 15:39 EST
Mercury trine Pluto 15:47 EST
Sun semisextile Uranus 15:54 EST
Sun semisquare Admetos in right ascension 16:02 EST
Mars enters Gemini in right ascension 17:21 EST
Void-of-Course Moon begins 17:29 EST
Mars semisextile Kronos in right ascension 20:11 EST

March 25
Mercury contraparallel Uranus in right ascension 01:16 EST
Mercury contraparallel Uranus 01:25 EST
Heliocentric Mercury conjunct Heliocentric Saturn 02:35 EST
Heliocentric Mercury quincunx Heliocentric Neptune 03:40 EST
Mercury opposition Apollon 11:55 EST
Void-of-Course Moon ends 12:35 EST
Heliocentric Mercury sextile Heliocentric Jupiter 13:08 EST
Heliocentric Mercury in 24th harmonic to Heliocentric Kronos 14:28 EST
Mercury sextile Hades in right ascension 14:36 EST
Chiron semisquare Cupido 17:49 EST
Venus semisquare Saturn 19:55 EST
Venus conjunct Admetos 20:23 EST
Heliocentric Mercury sesquiquadrate Heliocentric Uranus 23:10 EST
Venus contraparallel Cupido in right ascension 23:52 EST

March 26
Venus semisextile Hades 00:03 EST
Venus contraparallel Cupido 00:48 EST
Heliocentric Mercury semisextile Heliocentric Venus 00:51 EST
Heliocentric Earth semisextile Heliocentric Poseidon 02:52 EST
Venus sextile Vulcanus 03:04 EST
Heliocentric Mercury in 24th harmonic to Heliocentric Mars 07:49 EST
Heliocentric Mercury quincunx Heliocentric Pluto 08:11 EST
Heliocentric Mercury opposition Heliocentric Chiron 10:24 EST
Sun quincunx Poseidon 11:17 EST
Venus quincunx Pluto 11:18 EST
Heliocentric Mercury sextile Heliocentric Admetos 15:12 EST
Saturn semisquare Admetos 15:21 EST
Heliocentric Mercury conjunct Heliocentric Vulcanus 16:56 EST
Heliocentric Mercury semisextile Heliocentric Hades 17:59 EST
Sun semisquare Admetos 18:10 EST
Sun square Saturn 18:15 EST
Heliocentric Mercury square Heliocentric Apollon 19:11 EST
Mercury sesquiquadrate Cupido 21:51 EST
Heliocentric Mercury sesquiquadrate Heliocentric Cupido 22:28 EST
Mercury square Chiron 23:07 EST

March 27
Lunar apogee 02:00 EST
Venus sesquiquadrate Zeus 02:06 EST
Heliocentric Venus trine Heliocentric Pluto 04:16 EST
Heliocentric Earth sesquiquadrate Heliocentric Admetos 07:36 EST
Heliocentric Venus semisquare Heliocentric Mars 10:55 EST
Heliocentric Venus quincunx Heliocentric Chiron 12:49 EST
Mercury sesquiquadrate Jupiter 14:45 EST
Heliocentric Mercury in 24th harmonic to Heliocentric Saturn 14:46 EST
Venus quincunx Apollon 14:53 EST
Heliocentric Mars trine Heliocentric Poseidon 17:03 EST
Void-of-Course Moon begins 17:44 EST
Venus parallel Vulcanus 22:49 EST
Heliocentric Mercury enters Leo 23:00 EST
Heliocentric Earth conjunct Heliocentric Zeus 23:41 EST
Sun opposition Zeus 23:49 EST
Sun contraparallel Zeus 23:59 EST

March 28
Void-of-Course Moon ends 01:23 EST
Heliocentric Mercury semisquare Heliocentric Jupiter 02:19 EST
Heliocentric Mercury semisextile Heliocentric Kronos 02:56 EST
Mercury in 24th harmonic to True Lunar Node 04:50 EST
Heliocentric Venus square Heliocentric Admetos 06:13 EST
Heliocentric Earth in 24th harmonic to Heliocentric Apollon 07:33 EST
Mars parallel Hades 08:54 EST
Heliocentric Mercury quincunx Heliocentric Uranus 12:06 EST
Heliocentric Venus semisextile Heliocentric Vulcanus 12:34 EST
Mars square Uranus 12:39 EST
Moon at maximum north declination 14:55 EST
Heliocentric Venus semisquare Heliocentric Zeus 16:01 EST
Heliocentric Venus sextile Heliocentric Hades 16:25 EST
True Lunar Node retrograde station 18:14 EST
Heliocentric Venus sextile Heliocentric Apollon 20:48 EST
Heliocentric Mercury sesquiquadrate Heliocentric Pluto 21:41 EST


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STOCKS TO WATCH: FULT, MATW, QLTI, TRMB.

Fulton Financial Corporation (FULT)
NASDAQ
First Trade Date: 09/03/1985; 10:00 a.m.
Trading Strategy: FULT has transiting Jupiter conjunct its First-Trade Sun and transiting Apollon on its First-Trade Ascendant—a very positive combination! Support and resistance for this stock are nicely defined by an Admetos geocentric 4.2 line. We plan to add a long position in FULT to the Model Portfolio this week, setting our initial stop at 21.97 on a closing basis.

Matthews International Corporation Class A (MATW)
NASDAQ
First Trade Date: 07/20/1994; 9:30 a.m.
Trading Strategy: The First-Trade horoscope for MATW is getting lots of action right now. Transiting Jupiter is conjunct the MATW First-Trade Ascendant, Chiron is conjunct First-Trade Uranus, Poseidon is conjunct First-Trade Jupiter, Saturn is conjunct First-Trade Mercury, and Venus is conjunct First-Trade Admetos. A geocentric 71.6 Mars line has been carrying the price up, with geocentric Chiron at 15.82 providing support. MATW is busy working its way through geocentric lines for Saturn at 34.15 and Cupido at 23.42; as it does so it should gain fresh upward momentum. Our plan is to add a long position in this stock to the Model Portfolio this week, setting our initial stop at 31.13. If, however, we get a close below the 71.6 Mars line (running roughly between 31.85 and 32.00 this week) we will sell MATW short, setting our initial buy stop at 32.70.


QLT Inc. (QLTI)
NASDAQ; Optionable
First Trade Date: 10/25/1988; 09:30 a.m.
Trading Strategy: With Jupiter conjunct the First-Trade Midheaven and transiting Mars just having crossed over the First-Trade Descendant, it’s no wonder that QLTI gapped upward in late January to begin trading in a higher range. Saturn is currently conjoining the QLTI First-Trade Chiron, however, which is likely to keep a cap on this stock’s price run for the short term. OLTI is currently trading in a channel defined by a geocentric 26.81 Uranus line, with additional support from a geocentric 17.6 Zeus line and a geocentric 19.375 Apollon line. If the price of this stock dips intraday to as low as 22.75 we will add a long position, setting our initial stop at 22.27.

Trimble Navigation Ltd. (TRMB)
NASDAQ; Optionable
First Trade Date: 07/20/1990; 09:30 a.m.
Trading Strategy: Jupiter is on the First-Trade Ascendant for this stock, but there’s lots of other much heavier stuff going on, too! Transiting Hades is conjoining First-Trade Kronos, transiting Kronos is conjoining First-Trade Venus, and transiting Saturn is conjoining the First-Trade Moon. This is anything but a happy combination, and TRMB has been struggling lately, trying to break resistance at a geocentric 69.9 Hades price line. We think that resistance will hold, so our plan is to sell TRMB short early this week. We’ll set our initial buy stop at 22.88.



FINANCIAL CYCLES (ISSN 1055-8527) is published by Taylor-Bost Consulting and edited by Tim Bost at 2831 Ringling Boulevard, Suite B-108, Sarasota, FL 34237 USA. Phone: 941-953-3545. Fax: 941-953-3732. Web: http://www.TimBost.com. Entire contents copyright 2004 Timothy L. Bost. No portion of this Weekly Email Update or its printed version may be reproduced without the publisher's written permission. Subscriptions to FINANCIAL CYCLES are $39.00 per month for weekly updates by email, payable by monthly billing to a major credit card. Advance payment options (by credit card, check, or money order) are $228 for 6 months, $432 for 1 year or $815 for two years. All subscriptions are payable in US funds only— Visa, MasterCard, American Express, Diners Club, and Discover/Novus accepted; please make checks or money orders payable to Taylor-Bost. PayPal is also accepted for online orders; to subscribe go to http://www.TimBost.com/newsletter/subscribe.html.

By providing a source of independent market analysis, the purpose of FINANCIAL CYCLES is to foster the growth of person-centered business and investment astrology; to enhance the development and dissemination of financial literacy and prosperity consciousness; and to explore the use of technical analysis and financial astrology in promoting an esoteric spiritual understanding of economic trends, geocosmic cycles, geopolitical events, and market movements. FINANCIAL CYCLES is a general interest publication which is prepared from astrological information, news reports, cycle projections, and market observations which are believed to be accurate and reliable, but which cannot be guaranteed. Portfolio and trading reports in this publication do not include taxes and transaction fees, which should be taken into consideration by prospective traders and investors. Even with accurate information, past performance is no guarantee of future results. Speculation in securities and commodities involves considerable financial risk, and readers who plan to invest or speculate in securities or commodities mentioned in FINANCIAL CYCLES have the complete responsibility for making themselves fully aware of all the risks involved before they invest. The editor may or may not have positions in the securities and commodities discussed in this newsletter, and the information in FINANCIAL CYCLES should in no way be understood or construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any products or securities, nor should the material published in this newsletter be considered buy/sell advice.

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posted by Tim Bost @ 3/21/2004 11:05:09 PM