FINANCIAL CYCLES WEEKLY UPDATE #0409 – February 29 – March 6, 2004 with TIM BOST

COMMENT: “Don’t pay any attention to that man behind the curtain.” That was the admonition to Dorothy and her traveling companions in The Wizard of Oz. The technique is a simple and ancient one—focus your attention over here, so you’re obliged to ignore what’s going on elsewhere. The craft of politics, like the art of a skilled prestidigitator, is often more about misdirection than about actually dealing with issues.
That principle was very much in evidence early last week when President Bush announced his support for an amendment to the U.S. Constitution which would ban gay marriage. His statement provoked a predictable array of accolades and protests, and provided some fodder for the week’s debate among the presidential contenders from the Democratic Party. They were all painfully polite to each other in the debate, all apparently agreeing that any one of them would make a great President. But the issue of gay marriage gave them something to talk about in an effort to help voters have clear choices.
It was left to the Reverend Al Sharpton, however, who never has much trouble standing out in the diminishing crowd of candidates, to be the first to peek behind the curtain. “The issue is not who you go to bed with,” he declared. “The issue is whether or not either one of you have a job when you wake up in the morning.”
The continuing employment crisis is naturally something the current administration would prefer to ignore, of course, but it’s not the only thing. The week saw some interesting posturing in foreign affairs as well, with President Bush announcing that the U.S. had no right to intervene in Haiti unilaterally, but had to be a part of action by an international coalition—a fascinating contrast to his “we’ll go it alone no matter what our allies say” stance in invading Iraq a year ago.
But the real secret behind the curtain is the new U.S. Budget. No doubt to enhance its entertainment value, it features no fewer than 27 full-color photographs of the president doing things that make him look presidential. While it certainly lays out the president’s primary policy goals—big increases in defense spending, more tax cuts for wealthy individuals, and substantial cutbacks in domestic services—it features deficit forecasts, cost estimates, and other analytical assumptions that can most charitably be called misleading.
For one thing, the budget provides spending and revenue numbers just for 2005 to 2009, yet its own numbers reveal that 87% of the 10-year revenue costs of the president’s proposals come after 2009! And, while the budget declares that “long-term change is needed” to fix the revenue problems created by the Alternative Minimum Tax, it fails to offer any long-term solution, which conveniently ignoring the fact that any real solution would add billions of dollars to the already skyrocketing deficit.
Of course, there are a few features in the budget that could be attributed to poor communication skills or bad graphic design, but that also serve to keep things hidden behind the curtain. For example, a table on the cost of the president’s proposals only looks at revenue costs, even though footnotes mention the fact that there will be tens of billions in outlay costs as well. And details on the specific programs impacted by the budget, normally a standard part of government budget proposals, were somehow omitted, making it necessary for analysts and reporters to leaf through a massive computer printout from the Office of Management and Budget to try to figure out what it all means. That printout is 999 pages long, which, conspiracy theorists and other zealots will no doubt note, is 666 upside down.
And, we should note, the Rev. Sharpton wasn’t the only one who dared to peek last week. He was accompanied by none other than the venerable Alan Greenspan, who had somehow managed to make sense out of the confusing budget document. His conclusion was blunt and direct: if the government is going to manage money in the way this budget proposes, then social security benefits will have to be cut.
The market wasn’t particularly glad to hear that, but after all, what else is left? Credit expansion has clearly reached its limit in terms of its ability to stimulate the economy, and as even the confusing budget reveals, that man behind the curtain can only stay hidden so long.


OUR NEW WEBSITE IS OPEN FOR BUSINESS

Something we don’t want to hide is our new website at www.TimBost.com, which opened up on Friday afternoon last week. It’s not only got a new look and feel; it’s also packed with information we hope you’ll find useful and entertaining. Please take a look, bookmark the page, and come back often!


THE WEEK AHEAD

The earnings calendar is starting to slow down quite a bit this week—we’re looking for fewer than 400 earnings reports to be released. The most significant ones will be from Cablevision (CVC), Biogen (BIIB), Costco (COST), Autozone (AZO), Staples (SPLS), Vornado (VNO), and Amdocs (DOX).
The calendar of economic reports, on the other hand, is packed this week. We’re scheduled for the Personal Income and Personal Spending reports for January; Construction Spending and Factory Orders for January; the January Consumer Credit Report; the February ISM Manufacturing and Services numbers; February Auto and Truck Sales; the February Unemployment Rate along with Nonfarm Payrolls, Average Hourly Earnings and Average Workweek; and the revised Q4 Productivity report.
The astrological factors at work this week combine to suggest a positive trend for stock prices. We’re moving toward the Full Moon this weekend, which tends to elevate prices slightly, but even more important is Wednesday’s Mercury/Jupiter opposition. That phenomenon has brought stock prices up just prior to the opposition about 67% of the time, and it’s accompanied this week by a Venus/Uranus contraparallel (with prices up after the aspect 61% of the time) and a heliocentric Mercury/Uranus conjunction (prices up after the aspect 57% of the time). We’ll also get a direct station by Saturn next weekend. Historically, the Dow has tended to move up going into Saturn direct stations about 59% of the time, and then move after the station into a brief volatile period resolving into a downward trend. So in short, this looks like it will be a week on the plus side for share prices.
Have a great week!

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GLOBAL EQUITIES MARKETS LAST WEEK

Except for Singapore, the bourses in the Pacific managed to post gains for the week, with Tokyo leading the way, although at a somewhat slower pace than the Nikkei has demonstrated recently. Gains weren’t the norm in Europe, however, or in the U.S. either, with both the Dow and the NASDAQ losing ground for the week.

Dow Jones Industrial Average – down 0.33%
Dow Jones Transportation Average – up 0.35%
Dow Jones Utilities Average – up 2.50%
S& P 500 – up 0.07%
NASDAQ Composite Index – down 0.40%
Russell 2000 – up 0.98%
London FTSE-100 – down 0.50%
Paris CAC-40 – down 0.21%
Frankfurt DAX – down 1.35%
Sydney All Ordinaries – up 0.39%
Tokyo Nikkei – up 0.88%
Hong Kong Hang Seng Index – up 0.28%
Singapore Straits Times Index – down 0.17%


FINANCIAL CYCLES MODEL PORTFOLIO


POSITIONS CLOSED DURING THE PREVIOUS WEEK: DCN, LAKE, BBX, MTSC.

We closed four portfolio positions during the previous week, with one winner and three losers producing a net loss of $609.00.

On February 23 we sold 400 shares of Dana Corporation (DCN) at 20.99, taking a loss of $504.00 (a 5.66% loss in 9 trading days).

On February 23 we sold 600 shares of Lakeland Industries, Inc. (LAKE) at 16.41, taking a loss of $54.00 (a 0.55% loss in 9 trading days).

On February 25 we sold 500 shares of BankAtlantic Bancorp Class A (BBX) at 17.20, taking a loss of $95.00 (a 1.09% loss in 5 trading days).

On February 26 we bought to cover 400 shares of M T S Corporation (MTSC) at 27.01, taking a profit of $44.00 (a 0.41% gain in 5 trading days).

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POSITIONS ADDED TO THE PORTFOLIO DURING THE PREVIOUS WEEK: ANF, AKAM, MXO, MERQ, TKTX, WSFS.

We added four long positions and two short positions during the previous week.

We bought 400 shares of Abercrombie and Fitch Company (ANF) at 29.25 on 02/23/25, setting our initial stop at 29.24.

We bought 600 shares of Akamai Technologies, Inc. (AKAM) at 14.10 on 02/24/04, setting our initial stop at 13.38.

We bought 1,000 shares of Maxtor Corporation (MXO) at 9.30 on 02/24.04, setting our initial stop at 8.82.

We bought 200 shares of Mercury Interactive Corporation (MERQ) at 47.20 on 02/24/04, setting our initial stop at 46.08.

We sold short 500 shares of Transkaryotic Therapies (TKTX) at 12.20 on 02/24/04, setting our initial buy stop at 13.44.

We sold short 200 shares of W S F S Financial Corporation (WSFS) at 48.85 on 02/24/04, setting our initial buy stop at 50.88.

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YEAR-IN-REVIEW MODEL PORTFOLIO ACTIVITY

Based on the Model Portfolio’s composition at the beginning of 2004, featuring positions with an acquisition cost basis of $53,947.50 ($66,022.50 in long positions less short liabilities of $12,075.00), we reduced our cash holdings in the Model Portfolio to $46,052.50 on January 1. This returned the total portfolio value to $100.000.00 as we began trading in 2004.

So far this year we have had a total of 32 completed trades, with 10 winners and 22 losers bringing us a total net loss of $280.50. The largest profit for a single trade has been $1,522.50; the largest single-trade loss has been $504.00; the average loss per trade has been $8.77. The mean duration of our trades has been 9.2 trading days.

During 2003 we had a total of 176 completed trades, with 99 winners and 77 losers bringing us a total net profit of $51,717.00. The largest profit for a single trade was $9,240.00; the largest single-trade loss was $1,170.00; the average profit per trade was $293.85. The mean duration of our trades was 10.1 trading days.

During 2002 we had a total of 195 completed trades, with 119 winners, 74 losers, and 2 break-even trades bringing us a total net profit of $50,956.00. The largest profit for a single trade was $5,100.00; the largest single-trade loss was $1,055.00; the average profit per trade was $261.31. The mean duration of our trades was 12.7 trading days.

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CURRENT POSITIONS IN THE MODEL PORTFOLIO

Abercrombie and Fitch Company (ANF) – bought 400 shares at 29.25 on 02/23/04; currently 31.53. Raise stop to 30.65.

Akamai Technologies, Inc. (AKAM) – bought 600 shares at 14.10 on 02/24/04; currently 15.08. Raise stop to 14.70.

Centex Corporation (CTX) – bought 100 shares at 94.50 on 02/05/04; currently 106.80. Raise stop to 98.90.

Inter Parfums Inc. (IPAR) – bought 300 shares at 27.20 on 02/11/04; currently 28.00. Raise stop to 27.10.

Linens N Things Inc. (LIN) – bought 300 shares at 33.35 on 02/18/04; currently 33.90. Raise stop to 33.45.

Maxtor Corporation (MXO) – bought 1,000 shares at 9.30 on 02/24/03; currently 10.25. Raise stop to 9.50.

Mercury Interactive Corporation (MERQ) – bought 200 shares at 47.20 on 02/24/04; currently 48.54. Raise stop to 47.25.

Transkaryotic Therapies (TKTX) – sold short 500 shares at 12.20 on 02/24/04; currently 12.04. Lower buy stop to 12.15.

W S F S Financial Corporation (WSFS) – sold short 200 shares at 48.85 on 02/24/04; currently 48.46. Lower buy stop to 48.79.

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ECLIPSE PORTFOLIO

With the sale of our last remaining stock position last week, we closed trading in our Eclipse Portfolio, which was an experiment in longer-term stock market positions.
The stocks in the Eclipse Portfolio all had First-Trade horoscopes featuring a Sun that was directly impacted by the November 23, 2003 solar eclipse. The portfolio included only long positions.
All the stocks in the Eclipse Portfolio were purchased on November 24, 2003, with a total initial investment of $21,345.00. On December 9, 2003, we closed two losing positions that hit our stops—Network Appliance, Inc. (NTAP – bought at 22.25; sold at 19.65) and Silicon Storage Technology, Inc. (SSTI – bought at 13.00; sold at 11.87); on December 16, 2003, we closed our position in J. B. Hunt Transportation Services, Inc. (JBHT – bought at 25.25; sold at 25.75); and on February 5, 2004, we closed our position in Medtronic, Inc. (MDT – bought at 44.25; sold at 47.50). On February 23, 2004, we closed our final position in Teledyne Technologies (TDY – bought at 17.50; sold at 20.46). After closing all our positions, we wound up with a net profit of $138.00, for a gain of 0.65% in approximately three months.

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STRONGEST MARKET SECTORS LAST WEEK

Recreational Goods; Wholesale Computers; Residential Construction; Heavy Construction; Computer Peripherals.

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WEAKEST MARKET SECTORS LAST WEEK

Education & Training Services; Long-Term Care Facilities; Sporting Activities; Auto Parts; Major Diversified Aerospace & Defense.

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KEY ASTROLOGICAL EVENTS THIS WEEK

February 29
Mercury semisquare Chiron in right ascension 04:16 EST
Void-of-Course Moon 05:08 – 17:12 EST
Mercury sesquiquadrate Vulcanus 05:20 EST
Venus trine Pluto in right ascension 05:25 EST
Venus opposition Apollon in right ascension 05:31 EST
Cupido sesquiquadrate Vulcanus in right ascension 05:50 EST
Heliocentric Venus parallel Heliocentric Jupiter 05:57 EST
Sun square Cupido 07:36 EST
Pluto sextile Apollon in right ascension 10:19 EST
Heliocentric Mercury enters Pisces 10:50 EST
Heliocentric Mars semisextile Heliocentric Vulcanus 10:51 EST
Heliocentric Venus semisquare Heliocentric Admetos 12:03 EST
Heliocentric Mercury contraparallel Heliocentric Chiron 13:16 EST
Heliocentric Mercury trine Heliocentric Kronos 16:21 EST
Mercury contraparallel Venus 17:13 EST
Mercury contraparallel Venus in right ascension 17:16 EST
Heliocentric Venus in 24th harmonic to Heliocentric Vulcanus 18:27 EST
Mercury quincunx Zeus 21:01 EST
Heliocentric Venus square Heliocentric Zeus 21:38 EST
Heliocentric Mars conjunct Heliocentric Hades 21:39 EST
Heliocentric Venus in 24th harmonic to Heliocentric Hades 21:48 EST
Heliocentric Venus in 24th harmonic to Heliocentric Mars 21:52 EST
Sun contraparallel Jupiter 23:19 EST
Sun contraparallel Jupiter in right ascension 23:22 EST

March 1
Mercury sesquiquadrate Apollon 02:45 EST
Mercury sextile True North Node in right ascension 03:19 EST
Mercury semisquare Chiron 04:00 EST
Heliocentric Mercury conjunct Heliocentric Uranus 04:28 EST
Venus sesquiquadrate Cupido 07:43 EST
Heliocentric Mars trine Heliocentric Apollon 13:15 EST
Heliocentric Venus quincunx Heliocentric Cupido 13:54 EST
Heliocentric Mercury semisquare Heliocentric Chiron 20:01 EST
Venus contraparallel Uranus 21:28 EST
Venus contraparallel Uranus in right ascension 21:28 EST
Heliocentric Mercury trine Heliocentric Poseidon 23:00 EST
Mercury square Cupido 23:23 EST

March 2
Venus square Vulcanus in right ascension 00:37 EST
Venus sesquiquadrate Cupido in right ascension 01:07 EST
Heliocentric Earth sextile Heliocentric Saturn 02:17 EST
Mars semisquare Kronos in right ascension 02:52 EST
Mercury parallel Apollon 07:27 EST
Mercury parallel Apollon in right ascension 07:41 EST
Heliocentric Mercury sesquiquadrate Heliocentric Vulcanus 08:33 EST
Mars parallel Admetos in right ascension 09:30 EST
Heliocentric Mercury quincunx Heliocentric Zeus 09:50 EST
Mars parallel Admetos 10:51 EST
Heliocentric Mercury sesquiquadrate Heliocentric Apollon 11:50 EST
Heliocentric Mercury square Heliocentric Cupido 16:14 EST
Venus square Chiron in right ascension 19:32 EST
Void-of-Course Moon begins 22:42 EST
Mercury semisquare Venus 22:45 EST

March 3
Sun conjunct Mercury in right ascension 00:28 EST
Heliocentric Earth quincunx Heliocentric Neptune 02:16 EST
Void-of-Course Moon ends 04:18 EST
Sun sextile True Lunar Node 06:53 EST
Mars trine Jupiter in right ascension 07:50 EST
Heliocentric Mercury trine Heliocentric Venus 08:58 EST
Heliocentric Mercury trine Heliocentric Saturn 10:47 EST
Mercury sextile True Lunar Node 12:55 EST
Heliocentric Venus conjunct Heliocentric Saturn 13:41 EST
Heliocentric Mercury semisextile Heliocentric Neptune 16:10 EST
Jupiter quincunx Neptune 19:11 EST
Heliocentric Earth opposition Heliocentric Mercury 20:23 EST
Sun conjunct Mercury 20:40 EST
Mercury opposition Jupiter in right ascension 21:04 EST
Heliocentric Mercury opposition Heliocentric Jupiter 21:10 EST
Venus in 24th harmonic to True Lunar Node 21:21 EST
Mercury opposition Jupiter 22:34 EST
Mercury semisextile Neptune 22:52 EST
Heliocentric Earth conjunct Heliocentric Jupiter 23:59 EST

March 4
Sun opposition Jupiter 00:05 EST
Sun semisextile Neptune 00:55 EST
Heliocentric Venus quincunx Heliocentric Neptune 03:49 EST
Jupiter perigee 04:22 EST
Mercury contraparallel Jupiter 06:24 EST
Mercury sextile Mars in right ascension 06:25 EST
Mercury contraparallel Jupiter in right ascension 06:28 EST
Mercury semisextile Neptune in right ascension 06:35 EST
Mars square Neptune in right ascension 06:54
Hades direct station in right ascension 11:17 EST
Sun opposition Jupiter in right ascension 12:44 EST
Venus sesquiquadrate Jupiter 13:17 EST
Heliocentric Venus sextile Heliocentric Jupiter 18:00 EST
Hades direct station 18:31 EST
Heliocentric Mercury in 24th harmonic to Heliocentric Uranus 19:11 EST

March 5
Heliocentric Mercury square Heliocentric Pluto 08:03 EST
Heliocentric Mercury sextile Heliocentric Chiron 09:24 EST
Sun semisextile Neptune in right ascension 09:33 EST
Heliocentric Mercury sesquiquadrate Heliocentric Poseidon 11:45 EST
Void-of-Course Moon 12:13 – 12:18 EST
Venus enters Taurus 13:12 EST
Venus sextile Kronos 14:33 EST
Mercury sextile Admetos in right ascension 17:33 EST
Heliocentric Mercury sextile Heliocentric Admetos 17:58 EST
Mercury sesquiquadrate Poseidon in right ascension 19:42 EST
Heliocentric Mercury trine Heliocentric Vulcanus 20:14 EST
Heliocentric Earth sextile Heliocentric Venus 20:56 EST
Heliocentric Mercury square Heliocentric Hades 21:28 EST
Heliocentric Venus in 24th harmonic to Heliocentric Kronos 22:02 EST
Heliocentric Mercury quincunx Heliocentric Apollon 23:09 EST

March 6
Mercury in 24th harmonic to Uranus 08:05 EST
Heliocentric Mercury square Heliocentric Mars 12:10 EST
Full Moon 18:14 EST
Mercury square Hades in right ascension 21:21 EST

March 7
Heliocentric Mercury semisquare Heliocentric Neptune 00:49 EST
Void-of-Course Moon 03:49 – 17:31 EST
Heliocentric Venus sesquiquadrate Heliocentric Uranus 04:11 EST
Mercury quincunx Apollon in right ascension 08:42 EST
Sun parallel Mercury 10:04 EST
Sun parallel Mercury in right ascension 10:06 EST
Saturn direct station in right ascension 10:21 EST
Heliocentric Mercury enters Aries 10:39 EST
Mercury square Pluto in right ascension 10:39 EST
Saturn direct station 11:52 EST
Mars semisquare Saturn 12:18 EST
Heliocentric Mercury square Heliocentric Kronos 15:12 EST
Venus contraparallel Poseidon in right ascension 16:20 EST
Venus contraparallel Poseidon 16:46 EST
Mars conjunct Admetos 18:39 EST
Mercury sextile Admetos 20:00 EST
Mercury sesquiquadrate Poseidon 20:23 EST
Mercury sextile Mars 20:40 EST
Sun sextile Mars in right ascension 21:12 EST
Mercury square Hades 23:00 EST

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STOCKS TO WATCH: AMTD, ADI, GLK, FLSH, PETM.

Ameritrade Holding Corporation (AMTD)
NASDAQ; Optionable
First Trade Date: 03/04/1997; 09:30 a.m.
Trading Strategy: AMTD has put in a very strong performance in recent months, thanks in part to transiting Jupiter spending much of January hovering around the First-Trade IC. Jupiter is currently in opposition to the First-Trade Sun, making things look positive once again, but this time Jupiter is on the move, and that particular aspect won’t last long. The transiting Saturn/Admetos combination is getting ready to slam First-Trade Saturn, and Pluto, Hades and Poseidon are all about to gang up on First-Trade Uranus, so we’re ready to take a short position in this stock. We’ll wait to our position until late in the week, when we expect a brief pop upward in the price. Our initial buy stop will be set at 17.01.

Analog Devices (ADI)
NYSE; Optionable
First Trade Date: 04/03/1979; 10:00 a.m.
Trading Strategy: This is one of the stocks we highlighted in our monograph on Strategies for Creating Personal Wealth in 2004. Right now, with Saturn getting ready to retrograde back over the ADI First-Trade Ascendant, we will add a long position in the stock to the Model Portfolio. Our initial stop will be set at 47.20.

Great Lakes Chemical (GLK)
NYSE; Optionable
First Trade Date: 04/26/1988; 09:30 a.m.
Trading Strategy: Here’s a second candidate from the Strategies for Creating Personal Wealth in 2004 monograph. GLK has been responding quite predictably to the transit of Saturn to its First-Trade Ascendant; the price of its shares has pulled back more than 9% from its 52-week high in January. A geocentric Kronos line at 7.92 is operative here. With the Sun crossing its First-Trade Midheaven, Neptune conjunct it First-Trade Mars, and Jupiter crossing the First-Trade IC in May, GLK looks like a confirmed buying opportunity. We will add a long position to the Model Portfolio this week, setting our initial stop at 24.07.

M-Systems Flash Disk Pioneers (FLSH)
NASDAQ; Optionable
First Trade Date: 03/04/1993; 09:30 a.m.
Trading Strategy: FLSH made a double-top pattern on the technical charts in late October and January, and right now it looks like it’s ready for another run at that same resistance zone, thanks to transiting Jupiter in opposition to the FLSH First-Trade Sun. We’re going to play this one as a short-term trade, provided we get a little more technical confirmation in the light of active planetary lines for heliocentric 24 Cupido and geocentric 29.05 Neptune. If we get two consecutive closes above 20.09, we will be taking a long position this week and setting our initial stop at 18.25.

Petsmart (PETM)
NASDAQ; Optionable
First Trade Date: 07/23/1993; 09:30 a.m.
Trading Strategy: Jupiter will be aspecting all of the angles in the PETM First-Trade horoscope during March, and Saturn will be keeping out of the way, so it looks like a fairly straightforward short-term play for price appreciation. We will add a long position in PETM to the Model Portfolio this week, setting our initial stop at 24.99.



FINANCIAL CYCLES (ISSN 1055-8527) is published by Taylor-Bost Consulting and edited by Tim Bost at 2831 Ringling Boulevard, Suite B-108, Sarasota, FL 34237 USA. Phone: 941-953-3545. Fax: 941-953-3732. Web: http://www.TimBost.com. Entire contents copyright 2004 Timothy L. Bost. No portion of this Weekly Email Update or its printed version may be reproduced without the publisher's written permission. Subscriptions to FINANCIAL CYCLES are $39.00 per month for weekly updates by email, payable by monthly billing to a major credit card. Advance payment options (by credit card, check, or money order) are $228 for 6 months, $432 for 1 year or $815 for two years. All subscriptions are payable in US funds only— Visa, MasterCard, American Express, Diners Club, and Discover/Novus accepted; please make checks or money orders payable to Taylor-Bost. PayPal is also accepted for online orders; send payment to PayPal@TimBost.com.

By providing a source of independent market analysis, the purpose of FINANCIAL CYCLES is to foster the growth of person-centered business and investment astrology; to enhance the development and dissemination of financial literacy and prosperity consciousness; and to explore the use of technical analysis and financial astrology in promoting an esoteric spiritual understanding of economic trends, geocosmic cycles, geopolitical events, and market movements. FINANCIAL CYCLES is a general interest publication which is prepared from astrological information, news reports, cycle projections, and market observations which are believed to be accurate and reliable, but which cannot be guaranteed. Portfolio and trading reports in this publication do not include taxes and transaction fees, which should be taken into consideration by prospective traders and investors. Even with accurate information, past performance is no guarantee of future results. Speculation in securities and commodities involves considerable financial risk, and readers who plan to invest or speculate in securities or commodities mentioned in FINANCIAL CYCLES have the complete responsibility for making themselves fully aware of all the risks involved before they invest. The editor may or may not have positions in the securities and commodities discussed in this newsletter, and the information in FINANCIAL CYCLES should in no way be understood or construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any products or securities, nor should the material published in this newsletter be considered buy/sell advice.

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posted by Tim Bost @ 2/29/2004 10:21:03 PM