Financial Cycles
January 4, 2004
FINANCIAL CYCLES WEEKLY UPDATE #0401 – January 4 - 10, 2004 with TIM BOST
COMMENT: With a New Year underway, we are pleased to report that our trading activities during the previous year were again successful, outperforming all of the major market averages. During 2003, the Dow Industrials were up 25.32%, the S&P 500 was up 26.38%, the Russell 2000 was up 45.37%, and the NASDAQ was up 50.01%, while the Financial Cycles Model Portfolio was up 51.72%.
Last year’s gain in the Model Portfolio was consistent with its gain during the bear market year of 2002—it seems that our astrologically-based approach to trading has begun to bring in fairly steady returns, regardless of the prevailing market conditions. What did change during 2003, however, was the efficiency of our trading. During 2003, we took 9.74% fewer trades than in 2002, thus reducing the underlying transaction costs. We also held our trades for a period that was 20.47% shorter in duration than the previous year. Yet on the average each trade we made in 2003 was 12.45% more profitable than the average trade in 2002.
The closing days of 2003 brought a couple of cases of the flu to our household, obliging us to slow down a bit and extending the time available for end-of-the-year reflection. We weren’t able to stop thinking about astrology, though—we couldn’t help but recall that the “flu” is actually “influenza,” a disease quite literally named after (and originally attributed to) the influence of the heavenly bodies on human affairs.
The transition from one year to another brings a good share of optimism with it, but it certainly hasn’t been particularly easy for everyone. A spate of bank robberies during the final days of 2003 underscored the strain of expensive holiday shopping in a difficult economy—New York City had a 64% annual increase in bank robberies in 2003. In spite of some bright spots on the economic horizon, the Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index dropped much more than expected in December, while existing home sales backed up October’s 4.9% drop with a 4.6% decline in November, and the Consumer Confidence Index fell 1.2 points down to 91.3. Mortgage applications hit their lowest level since June, 2002, and the euro finished the year with an overall 19.8% gain against the dollar.
Last week we noted some of the catastrophic activity taking place around the globe, including the earthquake in Iran. But the 6.6 quake there, which killed over 30,000 people, was just one of an unusually high number of earthquakes that rocked the globe. On December 27, a 7.3 earthquake hit south of the Loyalty Islands, east of Australia. In Indonesia, a 6.1 quake brought damage and injuries to Lombok and Bali. A 5.3 earthquake and a 5.0 aftershock rumbled through the Mexican state of Guerrero on the Pacific coast. Taiwan was rocked by a 5.9 Richter undersea quake. Five tremors of up to 3.8 on the Richter scale hit the Dead Sea area in Jordan on New Year’s Eve and New Year’s Day. And central California experienced 21 earthquakes in a single day.
Earthquakes are very complicated phenomena, of course, but there do seem to be correlations between astrological dynamics and seismic activity. And sometimes the celestial influences are obvious even when the earth isn’t shaking—that was the case this weekend in northern Spain, for example, when hundreds of people from Valencia to Santiago de Compostela heard big explosions and watched fireballs fall from the sky.
And what do the current celestial influences portend for the year ahead in the markets? In the first place, it’s helpful to remember that there are societal forces at work striving to mold public consciousness and direct mass psychology in and out of the market context: economic disruption is clearly a goal of some of the terrorists at work in the world, while economic restoration and an extension of the bull market are the order of the day during a presidential election year. In the face of these conflicting forces, our expectation is that the trend toward bullishness will outweigh the terrorist impact during the year ahead, but there’s plenty of potential for conflict and confusion here.
Financial astrologers and cycles analysts across the spectrum have been weighing in with their forecasts for 2004. Here’s a sampling of their opinions.
Carol Mull of The Astro-Investor (mullpublishing@aol.com) projects a Dow trending upward for the year, with significant peaks in mid-June and late October and troughs in late April and early August.
Henry Weingarten of AFUND in New York City (www.afund.com) cites pressure on the dollar, the strains of a wartime economy, and the bursting of the real estate bubble as reasons for staying bearish. “Don’t buy and hold,” he says. “The stock market is living on borrowed time. I advise keeping a balanced and diversified portfolio. Eliminate margin debt and be cash rich.”
Jeanne Long, author of The Universal Clock and the developer of the Galactic Trader software (www.galacticinvestor.com), says that “We are now in a similar market phase to 1990-1999 and expect to see a gradual rise in the market until it peaks in June-December 2009. This period gives a wonderful opportunity to all those who lost much of their worth in the bear market. It is a financial reprieve—take advantage of it.”
Grace K. Morris, in her How to Choose Stocks to Outperform the Market 2004 ($80.00 from www.astroeconomics.com), identifies autos & auto parts, drug based retailers, textiles & apparel, footwear, healthcare providers, biotechnology, pharmaceuticals, industrial equipment, communications equipment, utilities, transportation equipment, and consumer services as positive market sectors in 2004.
Raymond A. Merriman, in his Forecasts 2004 book ($39.95 from Seek-It Publications at www.mmacycles.com), says that we can “Look for the USA economy and stock market to perform well through much of 2004—at least the first half.” He adds that the positive market sectors through September will include health care, medical supplies, assisted living companies, and the service industries, while the closing months of the year favor accounting, cosmetics, fashion, jewelry, apparel, sugar and refining, and law. Forecasts 2004 also features sections on T-Bonds, the Swiss franc, the euro, the Japanese yen, gold and silver markets, crude oil, grain markets, and much more.
The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast (www.elliottwave.com), on the other hand, identifies 2004 as the “Year of the Bear.” The current issue comments on “investors’ almost unfathomable detachment from history” and notes that “The incredible thing about the consensus of economists is that as the economy continually falls short of their projections, they seem to make up the difference by raising their expectations, like an extension ladder that keeps getting pushed higher as it sinks into the mud.”
THE WEEK AHEAD
With the New Year comes a new Earnings Season and the first of the reports for the quarter are due out this week. We expect to be hearing from the likes of Alcoa, inc. (AA), Walgreen’s (WAG), Monsanto (MON), Accenture (ACN), Seagate Technology (STX), MGIC Investments (MTG), and State Street (STT). There will also be a pretty busy economic calendar, with reports including the ISM Index, the Auto and Truck Sales numbers for December. November Construction Spending, Factory Orders, Consumer Credit and Wholesale Orders will also come in, along with the ISM indexes.
Hot on the heels of last week’s Jupiter station, we get two more planetary stations this week: Mercury returning to direct motion on January 6 and Zeus making a retrograde station on January 7. Either or both of these could be enough to trigger a short-term trend reversal in equities. Our strategy thus remains one of cautious optimism—we continue to identify specific opportunities on the long side, but are not ready to eliminate short positions, either.
Have a wonderful week as we get a prosperous New Year underway!
GLOBAL EQUITIES MARKETS LAST WEEK
The final week of 2003 was an outstanding one for stocks around the world. In Germany, the Frankfurt DAX climbed to a close above 4,000—the first time it has hit that price level since the summer of 2002. The London markets echoed Frankfurt, with the FTSE-100 closing above 4500 for the week. All the other markets that we track regularly were also winners for the week.
Dow Jones Industrial Average – up 1.06%
Dow Jones Transportation Average – up 0.60%
Dow Jones Utilities Average – up 0.64%
S& P 500 – up 1.32%
NASDAQ Composite Index – up 1.90%
Russell 2000 – up 1.54%
London FTSE-100 – up 1.47%
Paris CAC-40 – up 2.46%
Frankfurt DAX – up 2.95%
Sydney All Ordinaries – up 1.19%
Tokyo Nikkei – up 2.94%
Hong Kong Hang Seng Index – up 2.77%
Singapore Straits Times Index – up 3.79%
FINANCIAL CYCLES MODEL PORTFOLIO
POSITION CLOSED DURING THE PREVIOUS WEEK: CINF, PKTR, JBHT, NEOG.
We closed four portfolio positions during the previous week, with two winners and two losers producing a net profit of $1,657.00.
On December 29 we bought to cover 300 shares of Cincinnati Financial (CINF) at 41.60, taking a profit of $15.00 (a 0.12% gain in 5 trading days).
On December 29 we bought to cover 500 shares of Packeteer Inc. (PKTR) at 17.56, taking a profit of $1,970.00 (an 18.35% gain in 19 trading days).
On December 31 we bought to cover 400 shares of J. B. Hunt Transportation Services Inc. (JBHT) at 27.50, taking a loss of $100.00 (a 0.92% loss in 2 trading days).
On December 31 we sold 400 shares of Neogen Corporation (NEOG) at 24.38, taking a loss of $228.00 (a 2.28% loss in 1 trading day).
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POSITIONS ADDED TO THE PORTFOLIO DURING THE PREVIOUS WEEK: BSTE, CSGP, JBHT, HRBT, NEOG.
We bought 400 shares of Biosite, Inc. (BSTE) at 27.50 on 12/29/03, setting our initial stop at 23.45.
We bought 300 shares of Costar Group, Inc. (CSGP) at 41.05 on 12/29/03, setting our initial stop at 38.10.
We sold short 400 shares of J. B. Hunt Transportation Services, Inc. (JBHT) at 27.25 on 12/29/03, setting our initial buy stop at 27.50.
We sold short 300 shares of Hudson River Bancorp, Inc. (HRBT) at 40.25 on 12/30/03, setting our initial buy stop at 40.55.
We bought 400 shares of Neogen Corporation (NEOG) at 24.95 on 12/30/03, setting our initial stop at 24.38.
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YEAR-IN-REVIEW MODEL PORTFOLIO ACTIVITY
Based on the Model Portfolio’s composition at the beginning of 2004, featuring positions with an acquisition cost basis of $53,947.50 ($66,022.50 in long positions less short liabilities of $12,075.00), we reduced our cash holdings in the Model Portfolio to $46,052.50 on January 1. This returns the total portfolio value to $100.000.00 as we begin our trading for the New Year.
During 2003 we had a total of 176 completed trades, with 99 winners and 77 losers bringing us a total net profit of $51,717.00. The largest profit for a single trade was $9,240.00; the largest single-trade loss was $1,170.00; the average profit per trade was $293.85. The mean duration of our trades was 10.1 trading days.
During 2002 we had a total of 195 completed trades, with 119 winners, 74 losers, and 2 break-even trades bringing us a total net profit of $50,956.00. The largest profit for a single trade was $5,100.00; the largest single-trade loss was $1,055.00; the average profit per trade was $261.31. The mean duration of our trades was 12.7 trading days.
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CURRENT POSITIONS IN THE MODEL PORTFOLIO
Alcoa Inc. (AA) – bought 300 shares at 37.10 on 12/26/03; currently 37.55. Raise stop to 36.60.
Biosite, Inc. (BSTE) – bought 400 shares at 27.50 on 12/29/03; currently 29.07. Raise stop to 26.50.
Costar Group, Inc. (CSGP) – bought 300 shares at 41.05 on 12/29/03; currently 42.15. Raise stop to 40.00.
General Motors (GM) – bought 200 shares at 52.25 on 12/22/03; currently 53.64. Raise stop to 50.30.
Hudson River Bancorp, Inc. (HRBT) – sold short 300 shares at 40.25 on 12/30/03; currently 39.25. Lower buy stop to 40.30.
United Technologies (UTX) – bought 100 shares at 94.25 on 12/22/03; currently 94.36. Raise stop to 92.50.
Yellow Roadway Corporation (YELL) – acquired 350 shares at a cost basis of 32.65 on 12/15/03 through the merger of Roadway and Yellow Freight; currently 36.35. Raise stop to 35.50 on a closing basis.
ECLIPSE PORTFOLIO
Our Eclipse Portfolio is an experiment in longer-term positions in the stock market, as opposed to the more active trading positions in the Financial Cycles Model Portfolio, which we are currently holding for an average of 10.1 trading days. Although a long-term, “buy and hold” strategy leaves us very concerned about capital preservation and portfolio safety given current market conditions, we are always seeking profitable investment strategies requiring less time and energy than an active approach to trading.
The stocks in the Eclipse Portfolio all have First-Trade horoscopes featuring a Sun that was directly impacted by the November 23, 2003 solar eclipse. The portfolio includes only long positions, with stop-loss points set liberally to allow for broader price fluctuations while protecting the capital in the portfolio. When positions in the Eclipse Portfolio become sufficiently profitable we raise our stops to lock in profits accordingly, but our intention is to let our winners run as long as possible.
All the stocks in the Eclipse Portfolio were purchased on November 24, 2003, with a total initial investment of $21,345.00. On December 9, 2003, we closed two losing positions that hit our stops—Network Appliance, Inc. (NTAP – bought at 22.25; sold at 19.65) and Silicon Storage Technology, Inc. (SSTI – bought at 13.00; sold at 11.87); on December 16, 2003, we closed a third position in J. B. Hunt Transportation Services, Inc. (JBHT – bought at 25.25; sold at 25.75). In closing these positions, we took a net loss of $759.00 on the trades and added $12,641.00 cash to the portfolio.
Only two of our original five positions are thus currently still active in the portfolio. The current equity in the Eclipse Portfolio is $21,231.00, for a loss of 0.53% since the portfolio’s inception. Here are our current positions:
Medtronic, Inc. (MDT) – bought 100 shares at 44.25 on 11/24/03; currently 48.42. Raise stop to 46.00.
Teledyne Technologies, Inc. (TDY) – bought 200 shares at 17.60 on 11/24/03; currently 18.74. Raise stop to 17.75.
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STRONGEST MARKET SECTORS LAST WEEK
Silver; Computer Based Systems; Long Distance Carriers; Radio Broadcasting; Drug Delivery.
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WEAKEST MARKET SECTORS LAST WEEK
Industrial Electrical Equipment; Wholesale Drugs; Residential Construction; Southeastern Regional Banks; Meat Products.
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KEY ASTROLOGICAL EVENTS THIS WEEK
January 4
Heliocentric Mercury semisextile Heliocentric Vulcanus 01:34 EST
Venus quincunx Jupiter in right ascension 02:04 EST
Heliocentric Mercury sextile Heliocentric Hades 02:16 EST
Heliocentric Mercury semisquare Heliocentric Zeus 02:22 EST
Heliocentric Mercury square Heliocentric Mars 03:14 EST
Mars square Saturn in right ascension 03:49 EST
Heliocentric Mercury sextile Heliocentric Apollon 04:03 EST
Venus sextile Pluto in right ascension 04:44 EST
Cupido sextile Zeus in right ascension 07:18 EST
Venus parallel Neptune 08:24 EST
Venus parallel Neptune in right ascension 08:27 EST
Heliocentric Venus semisquare Heliocentric Admetos 08:37 EST
Heliocentric Mercury in 24th harmonic to Heliocentric Jupiter 10:19 EST
Heliocentric Mars quincunx Heliocentric Apollon 10:55 EST
Heliocentric Mercury semisquare Heliocentric Saturn 12:43 EST
Saturn quincunx Cupido 14:28 EST
Heliocentric Venus opposition Heliocentric Zeus 17:51 EST
January 5
Mars sextile Neptune 04:05 EST
Venus trine Hades in right ascension 04:16 EST
Heliocentric Venus semisquare Heliocentric Mars 05:56 EST
Jupiter trine Chiron 07:40 EST
Heliocentric Venus trine Heliocentric Cupido 09:01 EST
Venus quincunx Jupiter 10:09 EST
Venus semisextile Chiron 10:22 EST
Heliocentric Earth semisquare Heliocentric Mercury 11:22 EST
Venus trine Apollon in right ascension 12:59 EST
Heliocentric Mercury enters Virgo 13:00 EST
Venus square True Lunar Node 15:04 EST
Heliocentric Mercury sextile Heliocentric Kronos 16:53 EST
Heliocentric Mercury parallel Heliocentric Chiron 18:31 EST
Heliocentric Venus quincunx Heliocentric Jupiter 21:32 EST
January 6
Heliocentric Mercury opposition Heliocentric Uranus 00:13 EST
Sun semisquare Uranus 02:14 EST
Sun trine True Lunar Node in right ascension 03:25 EST
Heliocentric Venus square Heliocentric Saturn 04:32 EST
Venus sesquiquadrate Zeus in right ascension 06:06 EST
Mercury direct station in right ascension 08:41 EST
Mercury direct station 08:45 EST
Heliocentric Mercury sesquiquadrate Heliocentric Chiron 10:00 EST
Heliocentric Earth in 24th harmonic to Heliocentric Kronos 14:01 EST
Chiron trine True Lunar Node 14:24 EST
Heliocentric Mercury sextile Heliocentric Poseidon 18:07 EST
Zeus retrograde station in right ascension 21:32 EST
Venus sextile Pluto 21:43 EST
Sun contraparallel Saturn 22:49 EST
Sun contraparallel Saturn in right ascension 23:03 EST
January 7
Sun semisquare Uranus in right ascension 01:53 EST
Heliocentric Mercury semisquare Heliocentric Vulcanus 02:14 EST
Heliocentric Mercury semisextile Heliocentric Zeus 03:08 EST
Heliocentric Mercury semisquare Heliocentric Apollon 04:59 EST
Heliocentric Mercury square Heliocentric Cupido 08:15 EST
Zeus retrograde station 09:02 EST
Jupiter trine True Lunar Node 10:27 EST
Venus quincunx Vulcanus in right ascension 11:20 EST
Venus square Admetos 11:43 EST
Heliocentric Mercury conjunct Heliocentric Jupiter 13:06 EST
Heliocentric Mercury sextile Heliocentric Saturn 15:10 EST
Mars parallel Jupiter in right ascension 20:10 EST
Heliocentric Venus sextile Heliocentric Neptune 22:05 EST
Venus sesquiquadrate Saturn in right ascension 22:22 EST
Mars parallel Jupiter 22:37 EST
January 8
Venus parallel Chiron 00:45 EST
Venus parallel Chiron in right ascension 00:46 EST
Heliocentric Earth sesquiquadrate Heliocentric Uranus 01:40 EST
Heliocentric Mars semisquare Heliocentric Saturn 02:20 EST
Venus trine Hades 02:32 EST
Heliocentric Mercury quincunx Heliocentric Neptune 05:21 EST
Sun trine Admetos in right ascension 06:55 EST
Venus quincunx Vulcanus 09:56 EST
Heliocentric Mercury quincunx Heliocentric Venus 09:13 EST
January 9
Sun conjunct Chiron in right ascension 03:09 EST Sun contraparallel Hades 04:03 EST
Sun trine True Lunar Node 06:30 EST
Venus sesquiquadrate Zeus 06:31 EST
Sun contraparallel Hades in right ascension 6:37 EST
Mercury sextile Venus in right ascension 10:11 EST
Sun trine Jupiter in right ascension 10:19 EST
Venus trine Apollon 10:53 EST
Sun trine Jupiter 13:59 EST
Mercury semisquare Neptune 14:17 EST
Heliocentric Earth sextile Heliocentric Mercury 14:30 EST
Venus sesquiquadrate Saturn 14:46 EST
Heliocentric Mercury trine Heliocentric Chiron 17:10 EST
Sun semisextile Pluto in right ascension 18:31 EST
Heliocentric Mercury square Heliocentric Pluto 20:30 EST
January 10
Sun conjunct Chiron 01:44 EST
Heliocentric Mercury semisquare Heliocentric Poseidon 01:50 EST
Heliocentric Earth opposition Heliocentric Chiron 01:53 EST
Heliocentric Mercury trine Heliocentric Admetos 08:20 EST
Heliocentric Mercury sextile Heliocentric Vulcanus 10:47 EST
Heliocentric Mercury square Heliocentric Hades 11:41 EST
Heliocentric Mercury in 24th harmonic to Heliocentric Zeus 11:46 EST
Heliocentric Mercury semisextile Heliocentric Apollon 13:51 EST
Sun quincunx Hades in right ascension 14:26 EST
Mercury parallel Cupido in right ascension 15:24 EST
Heliocentric Earth quincunx Heliocentric Pluto 15:51 EST
Mercury parallel Cupido 17:25 EST
Heliocentric Venus semisquare Heliocentric Uranus 19:34 EST
Uranus trine Kronos 22:17 EST
January 11
Heliocentric Mercury in 24th harmonic to Heliocentric Jupiter 00:35 EST
Venus parallel Pluto 01:24 EST
Venus parallel Pluto in right ascension 01:29 EST
Sun square Apollon in right ascension 02:33 EST
Mars semisquare Uranus 04:00 EST
Heliocentric Mercury trine Heliocentric Mars 12:12 EST
Sun semisextile Pluto 13:43 EST
Heliocentric Mercury sesquiquadrate Heliocentric Neptune 17:12 EST
Mars sextile Neptune in right ascension 18:47 EST
Venus semisquare Mars in right ascension 20:48 EST
Jupiter trine Chiron in right ascension 03:59 EST
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STOCKS TO WATCH: CATY, COP, ELUX, PKSI.
Cathay General Bancorp (CATY)
First Trade Date: 12/14/1990; 09:30 a.m.
Trading Strategy: With Hades currently opposing the CATY First-Trade Sun, the astrological outlook for this stock is anything but positive. We’ve been watching a geocentric 82.25 Hades line at work with this stock; it should provide resistance next at about 57.52. Our plan is to short this stock near the end of this week, setting our initial buy stop at 57.62.
Conocophillips (COP)
First Trade Date: 05/27/1920; 10:00 a.m.
Trading Strategy: We tracked this stock for a possible trade last week, but it didn’t behave the way we expected it to. The Cupido line that we expected to provide resistance failed to hold; COP traded through that level during the session on Monday, December 29. Instead of shorting COP, our plan is now to put on a long position early this week, setting our initial stop at 64.40.
Electrolux AB ADR (ELUX)
First Trade Date: 07/01/1987; 09:30 a.m.
Trading Strategy: Saturn is currently conjoining the ELUX First-Trade Sun, so the price of this stock should be ready to advance further in the months ahead. The hypothetical transneptunians figure prominently in this situation, too, with Admetos semisquare the First-Trade True Lunar Node, Vulcanus semisquare the First-Trade Moon, and Hades sesquiquadrate First-Trade Pluto. Our plan is add a long position to the Model Portfolio early this week, setting our initial stop at 43.00.
Primus Knowledge Solutions (PKSI)
First Trade Date: 07/01/1999; 09:30 a.m.
Trading Strategy: This stock began the New Year by gapping upward, jumping across a heliocentric-24 Jupiter line to begin trading at a higher level. The interesting thing was that this price action took place with transiting Saturn conjoining the PKSI First-Trade Sun; this suggests that a foundation is being laid for more positive price action to come, and thanks to transiting Jupiter’s current station sesquiquadrate the PKSI First-Trade Neptune, a positive move could gain a lot of favorable attention, adding even more momentum. For the time being, though, there’s a little bit of Admetos to contend with. A geocentric 5.0 Admetos line defines the support/resistance structure for this stock, and because of its action we anticipate a bit of a price pull-back for PKSI during the week ahead. If we can get this stock at 6.25 or less by the end of the week, we will add a long position to the Model Portfolio, setting our initial stop at 5.10.
FINANCIAL CYCLES (ISSN 1055-8527) is published by Taylor-Bost Consulting and edited by Tim Bost at 2831 Ringling Boulevard, Suite B-108, Sarasota, FL 34237 USA. Phone: 941-953-3545. Fax: 941-953-3732. Email: timbost@pipeline.com. Entire contents copyright 2004 Timothy L. Bost. No portion of this Weekly Email Update or its printed version may be reproduced without the publisher's written permission. Subscriptions to FINANCIAL CYCLES are $39.00 per month for weekly updates by email or fax, payable by monthly billing to a major credit card. Advance payment options (by credit card, check, or money order) are $228 for 6 months, $432 for 1 year or $815 for two years. All subscriptions are payable in US funds only— Visa, MasterCard, American Express, Diners Club, and Discover/Novus accepted; please make checks or money orders payable to Taylor-Bost.
By providing a source of independent market analysis, the purpose of FINANCIAL CYCLES is to foster the growth of person-centered business and investment astrology; to enhance the development and dissemination of financial literacy and prosperity consciousness; and to explore the use of technical analysis and financial astrology in promoting an esoteric spiritual understanding of economic trends, geocosmic cycles, geopolitical events, and market movements. FINANCIAL CYCLES is a general interest publication which is prepared from astrological information, news reports, cycle projections, and market observations which are believed to be accurate and reliable, but which cannot be guaranteed. Portfolio and trading reports in this publication do not include taxes and transaction fees, which should be taken into consideration by prospective traders and investors. Even with accurate information, past performance is no guarantee of future results. Speculation in securities and commodities involves considerable financial risk, and readers who plan to invest or speculate in securities or commodities mentioned in FINANCIAL CYCLES have the complete responsibility for making themselves fully aware of all the risks involved before they invest. The editor may or may not have positions in the securities and commodities discussed in this newsletter, and the information in FINANCIAL CYCLES should in no way be understood or construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any products or securities, nor should the material published in this newsletter be considered buy/sell advice.
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