FINANCIAL CYCLES WEEKLY UPDATE #0348 – November 30 – December 6, 2003 with TIM BOST

COMMENT: We commented last week that “In general, stocks move up near Mars/Pluto squares, but about 80% of the time, the waxing Mars/Pluto square has brought U.S. stocks down for a few weeks following the square, while the waning Mars/Pluto square has brought prices up about 75% of the time. In this case, we have a waxing Mars/Pluto square in the works, so we’re looking for declining equity prices to continue.” As it turned out, however, the actual market action proved to be the exception to the rule, and stocks continued to rally amid positive economic announcements in a low-volume trading week. So even the declining prices that had led into last week didn’t give us the corrective action we have been looking for.
Unfortunately, however, we did see the other typical manifestation of Mars/Pluto squares, “increased levels of violence and bloodshed.” The biggest battle since the fall of Baghdad broke out in Iraq, and the guerilla killings spread to Japanese and Spanish nationals, as well as to employees of the Halliburton subsidiaries who have secured lucrative contracts for reconstructing the country.
But what about the markets? At times we feel like the Boy Who Cried Wolf, with our expectation of a major correction being deferred again and again. There’s increasing evidence that the economy is improving, in spite of the fact that employment remains a tough nut to crack and the euro is pushing toward new record highs against the dollar. Even so, we need to remember that positive economic developments are not necessarily the same as a positive environment for stocks, since the market is always pricing equities in line with future expectations.
The “Misery Index,” which is the combination of the unemployment rate and the prevailing interest rate, is still around 8.2 percent, compared to its standing at 6.7 percent in October, 1999, which was one of the lowest readings since the mid-1960s. It will take a considerable shift in the employment picture, as well as a more realistic approach to inflation, to bring this number back down significantly. And whether the market responds to the trends in the Misery Index or simply reacts to the astrological dynamics behind the scenes, we are still firmly convinced that a big correction is waiting in the wings.


THE WEEK AHEAD

Earnings reports will remain at a virtual standstill this week, with only about 200 companies revealing their numbers. Among the most significant ones will be Dollar General (DG), National Semiconductor (NSM), and Albertson’s (ABS). The week’s economic reports will include November Auto and Truck Sales; the November ISM Manufacturing Index and Services Index; October Consumer Credit, Construction Spending, and Factory Orders; November Unemployment, Hourly Earnings, and Average Workweek; and a revised Q3 Productivity report.
The astrological dynamics at work this week include a Sun/Cupido conjunction, which is likely to keep spirits high as the week gets underway. Even so, we will also have Venus moving through the early degrees of Capricorn to form a square to Saturn. This is definitely a sobering influence on economic matters in general, and it may be just what it takes to get some of the extra air out of the market balloon.
As traders, we will be particularly cautious just prior to the closing bell on Thursday, December 4, when the Moon goes void-of-course to bring the trading day to a close. Have a wonderful week!


GLOBAL EQUITIES MARKETS LAST WEEK

Stocks markets across the globe moved from negative territory into positive price action last week, with the biggest turnaround coming from Hong Kong, where the Hang Seng Index gained nearly 4% on the heels of a 3% loss the week before.

Dow Jones Industrial Average – up 1.69%
Dow Jones Transportation Average – up 2.30%
Dow Jones Utilities Average – up 2.09%
S& P 500 – up 2.38%
NASDAQ Composite Index – up 4.16%
Russell 2000 – up 4.48%
London FTSE-100 – up 0.80%
Paris CAC-40 – up 3.02%
Frankfurt DAX – up 2.97%
Sydney All Ordinaries – up 0.09%
Tokyo Nikkei – up 2.38%
Hong Kong Hang Seng Index – up 3.98%
Singapore Straits Times Index – up 3.10%


FINANCIAL CYCLES MODEL PORTFOLIO


POSITIONS CLOSED DURING THE PREVIOUS WEEK: AKAM, CRDN, LSTR, SPLS, CYPB, PTEK.

We closed six portfolio positions during the previous week, with five winners and one loser producing a net profit of $2,030.00.

On November 24 we bought to cover 1,000 shares of Akamai Technologies Inc. (AKAM) at 11.55, taking a profit of $200.00 (a 1.70% gain in 6 trading days).

On November 24 we bought to cover 200 shares of Ceradyne Inc. (CRDN) at 39.75, taking a loss of $350.00 (a 4.61% loss in 2 trading days).

On November 24 we bought to cover 400 shares of Landstar System Inc. (LSTR) at 35.25, taking a profit of $900.00 (a 6.00% gain in 10 trading days).

On November 24 we bought to cover 400 shares of Staples, Inc. (SPLS) at 26.15, taking a profit of $440.00 (a 4.04% gain in 15 trading days).

On November 25 we bought to cover 600 shares of Cypress Bioscience Inc. (CYPB) at 13.55, taking a profit of $270.00 (a 3.21% gain in 11 trading days).

On November 25 we bought to cover 1,000 shares of PTEK Holdings Inc. (PTEK) at 8.68, taking a profit of $570.00 (a 6.16% gain in 11 trading days).

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POSITIONS ADDED TO THE PORTFOLIO DURING THE PREVIOUS WEEK: KOSP, AMKR, ASPT, RANGY, TECH.

We bought 300 shares of Kos Pharmaceuticals Inc. (KOSP) at 42.25 on 11/24/03, setting our initial stop at 40.40.

We bought 500 shares of Amkor Technology, Inc. (AMKR) at 19.00 on 11/26/03, setting our initial stop at 17.48.

We sold short 500 shares of Aspect Communications (ASPT) at 14.25 on 11/26/03, setting our initial buy stop at 15.35.

We sold short 500 shares of Randgold & Exploration Company Ltd. ADS (RANGY) at 16.50 on 11/26/03, setting our initial buy stop at 17.27.

We sold short 300 shares of Techne Corporation (TECH) at 36.25 on 11/26/03, setting our initial buy stop at 34.50.

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YEAR-IN-REVIEW MODEL PORTFOLIO ACTIVITY

Since the beginning of the year we have had a total of 156 completed trades, with 91 winners and 65 losers bringing us a total net profit of $51,801.00. The largest profit for a single trade has been $9,240.00; the largest single-trade loss has been $900.00; the average profit per trade has been $332.06. The mean duration of our trades has been 10.4 trading days.

During 2002 we had a total of 195 completed trades, with 119 winners, 74 losers, and 2 break-even trades bringing us a total net profit of $50,956.00. The largest profit for a single trade was $5,100.00; the largest single-trade loss was $1,055.00; the average profit per trade was $261.31. The mean duration of our trades was 12.7 trading days.

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CURRENT POSITIONS IN THE MODEL PORTFOLIO

Amkor Technology, Inc. (AMKR) – bought 500 shares at 19.00 on 11/26/03; currently 19.52. Raise stop to 18.50.

Aspect Communications (ASPT) – sold short 500 shares at 14.25 on 11/26/03; currently 14.72. Lower buy stop to 15.00.

Kos Pharmaceuticals Inc. (KOSP) – bought 300 shares at 42.25 on 11/24/03; currently 44.50. Raise stop to 42.00.

Marimba, Inc. (MRBA) – sold short 1,000 shares at 5.60 on 11/17/03; currently 5.10. Lower buy stop to 5.70.

Randgold & Exploration Company Ltd. ADS (RANGY) – sold short 500 shares at 16.50 on 11/26/03; currently 16.45. Lower buy stop to 16.75.

Strayer Education, Inc. (STRA) – bought 100 shares at 103.25 on 11/17/03; currently 111.73. Raise stop to 103.80.

Techne Corporation (TECH) – sold short 300 shares at 36.25 on 11/26/03; currently 35.94. Lower buy stop to 36.50.

USANA Health Science Inc. (USNA) – bought 300 shares at 33.25 on 11/17/03; currently 33.51. Raise stop to 32.50.

Witness Systems, Inc. (WITS) – bought 1,000 shares at 8.00 on 11/17/03; currently 9.00. Raise stop to 8.10.

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ECLIPSE PORTFOLIO

In response to requests from our readers, we have developed our Eclipse Portfolio as an experiment in working with longer-term positions in the stock market, as opposed to the more active trading positions in the Financial Cycles Model Portfolio, which we hold for an average of 10.4 trading days. Although a long-term, “buy and hold” strategy leaves us very concerned about capital preservation and portfolio safety given the current market conditions, we are always on the lookout for profitable investment strategies that require less time and energy than an active approach to trading.
The stocks in the Eclipse Portfolio all have First-Trade horoscopes featuring a Sun that was directly impacted by the November 23, 2003 solar eclipse. The portfolio includes only long positions, with stop-loss points set liberally to allow for broader price fluctuations while providing a safety net to protect the capital in the portfolio. When positions in the Eclipse Portfolio become sufficiently profitable we will raise our stops to lock in profits accordingly, but our intention is to let our winners run as long as possible.
All the stocks in the Eclipse Portfolio were purchased on November 24, 2003, with a total initial investment of $21,345.00. The current equity in the portfolio is $21,905.00, for a gain of 2.62% since the portfolio’s inception.

J. B. Hunt Transportation Services, Inc. (JBHT) – bought 200 shares at 25.25 on 11/24/03; currently 26.28. Raise stop to 23.56.

Medtronic, Inc. (MDT) – bought 100 shares at 44.25 on 11/24/03; currently 45.20. Raise stop to 42.85.

Network Appliance, Inc. (NTAP) – bought 200 shares at 22.25 on 11/24/03; currently 23.11. Raise stop to 19.65.

Silicon Storage Technology, Inc. (SSTI) – bought 300 shares at 13.00 on 11/24/03; currently 13.57. Raise stop to 11.87.

Teledyne Technologies, Inc. (TDY) – bought 200 shares at 17.60 on 11/24/03; currently 17.18. Raise stop to 15.70.

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STRONGEST MARKET SECTORS LAST WEEK

Silver; Printed Circuit Boards; Semiconductor Memory Chips; Generic Drugs; Sporting Goods Stores.

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WEAKEST MARKET SECTORS LAST WEEK

Air Services; Aerospace/Defense; Drug Manufacturers; Wholesale Auto Parts; Music & Video Stores.

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KEY ASTROLOGICAL EVENTS THIS WEEK

November 30
Heliocentric Earth trine Heliocentric Zeus 00:32 EST
Venus sesquiquadrate Admetos in right ascension 00:51 EST
Venus in 24th harmonic to Pluto 07:32 EST
Heliocentric Mercury semisextile Heliocentric Chiron 09:01 EST
Sun sesquiquadrate Vulcanus 09:22 EST
Heliocentric Earth sesquiquadrate Heliocentric Apollon 09:36 EST
True Lunar Node direct station 12:07 EST
Mars square Hades in right ascension 13:39 EST
Mars sesquiquadrate Poseidon 13:50 EST
Heliocentric Mercury sextile Heliocentric Pluto 17:10 EST
Sun sextile Zeus 20:04 EST
Sun semisquare Apollon in right ascension 22:34 EST
Sun conjunct Cupido 22:53 EST
Sun semisquare Apollon 22:59 EST
Heliocentric Earth opposition Heliocentric Cupido 23:02 EST
Heliocentric Venus conjunct Heliocentric Neptune 23:15 EST

December 1
Heliocentric Earth semisextile Heliocentric Saturn 00:57 EST
Sun conjunct Cupido in right ascension 02:34 EST
Venus sesquiquadrate True Lunar Node 03:25 EST
Cupido semisquare Apollon 04:30 EST
Heliocentric Mercury square Heliocentric Admetos 08:26 EST
Heliocentric Mercury quincunx Heliocentric Vulcanus 11:22 EST
Heliocentric Mercury trine Heliocentric Hades 12:06 EST
Heliocentric Mercury sesquiquadrate Heliocentric Zeus 12:21 EST
Mercury semisquare Neptune in right ascension 12:58 EST
Heliocentric Mercury trine Heliocentric Apollon 14:49 EST
Mars sextile Admetos 15:34 EST
Heliocentric Mercury sesquiquadrate Heliocentric Saturn 19:10 EST
Sun sextile Zeus in right ascension 19:50 EST
Venus sextile Poseidon 20:11 EST
Venus semisextile Cupido in right ascension 22:45 EST

December 2
Mercury sextile Uranus 00:57 EST
Venus sesquiquadrate Admetos 06:54 EST
Saturn parallel Hades in right ascension 07:34 EST
Venus square Zeus in right ascension 12:05 EST
Mercury enters Capricorn 16:36 EST
Void-of-Course Moon 16:39 – 17:56 EST
Heliocentric Mercury in 24th harmonic to Heliocentric Neptune 19:54 EST

December 3
Heliocentric Venus sesquiquadrate Heliocentric Kronos 00:19 EST
Heliocentric Mars sesquiquadrate Heliocentric Pluto 05:56 EST
Sun sextile Neptune 06:33 EST
Mercury in 24th harmonic to Chiron 09:33 EST
Mercury opposition Kronos in right ascension 11:17 EST
Mercury opposition Kronos 11:31 EST
Heliocentric Mercury enters Pisces 11:36 EST
Mars square Hades 12:26 EST
Venus square Zeus I5:17 EST
Heliocentric Mercury trine Heliocentric Kronos 16:04 EST
Sun sesquiquadrate Vulcanus in right ascension 16:39 EST
Heliocentric Venus in 24th harmonic to Heliocentric Uranus 18:31 EST
Venus semisextile Cupido 18:33 EST
Mercury sextile Uranus in right ascension 18:34 EST
Mars trine Vulcanus 18:51 EST
Heliocentric Mercury contraparallel Heliocentric Chiron 22:09 EST
Heliocentric Mercury conjunct Heliocentric Uranus 23:25 EST

December 4
Sun contraparallel Hades in right ascension 02:03 EST
Saturn parallel Hades 02:33 EST
Heliocentric Mercury in 24th harmonic to Heliocentric Venus 02:42 EST
Mars parallel Zeus in right ascension 03:54 EST
Sun contraparallel Hades 04:32 EST
Sun contraparallel Saturn in right ascension 04:34 EST
Sun contraparallel Saturn 04:40 EST
Sun quincunx Saturn 05:56 EST
Heliocentric Mercury semisquare Heliocentric Chiron 09:23
Mars parallel Zeus 10:23 EST
Uranus semisquare Chiron in right ascension 10:39 EST
Jupiter semisquare Poseidon in right ascension 15:16 EST
Void-of-Course Moon 15:52 – 17:30 EST
Mercury sesquiquadrate True Lunar Node in right ascension 18:37 EST
Heliocentric Venus semisextile Heliocentric Chiron 19:24 EST
Heliocentric Earth trine Heliocentric Neptune 21:21 EST
Heliocentric Mercury sextile Heliocentric Mars 22:05 EST
Heliocentric Mercury trine Heliocentric Poseidon 23:04 EST
Mars quincunx Apollon 23:14 EST

December 5
Venus semisextile Sun in right ascension 02:43 EST
Heliocentric Mars opposition Heliocentric Poseidon 04:54 EST
Heliocentric Mercury opposition Heliocentric Jupiter 06:17 EST
Heliocentric Mercury sesquiquadrate Heliocentric Vulcanus 08:32 EST
Heliocentric Mercury quincunx Heliocentric Zeus 09:27 EST
Mercury sextile Poseidon in right ascension 11:25 EST
Heliocentric Mercury sesquiquadrate Heliocentric Apollon 11:42 EST
Heliocentric Venus sextile Heliocentric Pluto 12:53 EST
Heliocentric Mercury square Heliocentric Cupido 15:02 EST
Venus semisextile Neptune 15:37 EST
Mars trine Vulcanus in right ascension 16:11 EST
Heliocentric Mercury trine Heliocentric Saturn 16:25 EST
Mercury sesquiquadrate Admetos in right ascension 18:07 EST
Pluto quincunx Admetos in right ascension 20:54 EST

December 6
Venus opposition Saturn in right ascension 03:26 EST
Venus opposition Saturn 07:03 EST
Mercury in 24th harmonic to Pluto 07:24 EST
Sun quincunx Saturn in right ascension 09:11 EST
True Lunar Node retrograde station 10:54 EST
Heliocentric Mercury semisextile Heliocentric Neptune 13:57 EST
Venus semisextile Neptune in right ascension 16:12 EST
Heliocentric Venus square Heliocentric Admetos 23:29 EST

December 7
Sun sextile Neptune in right ascension 01:40 EST
Mercury sesquiquadrate True Lunar Node 02:04 EST
Heliocentric Earth square Heliocentric Mercury 02:29 EST
Heliocentric Mars in 24th harmonic to Heliocentric Admetos 04:38 EST
Void-of-Course Moon 04:54 – 6:26 EST
Heliocentric Venus quincunx Heliocentric Vulcanus 06:11 EST
Heliocentric Venus trine Heliocentric Hades 07:58 EST
Heliocentric Venus sesquiquadrate Heliocentric Zeus 08:31 EST
Heliocentric Venus trine Heliocentric Apollon 14:15 EST
Heliocentric Mars trine Heliocentric Jupiter 14:30 EST
Heliocentric Mercury in 24th harmonic to Heliocentric Uranus 14:46 EST
Mercury sextile Poseidon 19:50 EST
Heliocentric Mercury sextile Heliocentric Chiron 23:50 EST
Mercury semisextile Cupido in right ascension 23:52 EST


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STOCKS TO WATCH: CELG, CMTL, PKTR, SGMA.

Celegene Corporation (CELG)
First Trade Date: 07/28/1987; 09:30 a.m.
Trading Strategy: Jupiter is crossing the CELG First-Trade Ascendant this week, and things are looking pretty good for the stock, which is currently about 6% below its 52-week high. Other astrological factors at work include transiting Mars in opposition to First-Trade Zeus, transiting Venus conjunct First-Trade Neptune, transiting Saturn conjunct First-Trade Vulcanus, and the Sun moving past it conjunction with transiting Cupido to conjoin First-Trade Saturn in another week. The anticipated action for CELG is mainly a Saturn story, however—a heliocentric 24 Saturn line has defined critical support in the past, and CELG hit some solid resistance on that line during its trading on Friday. Our plan is to sell CELG short for the Model Portfolio early this week, setting our initial buy stop at 47.31.

Comtech Telecommunications Corporation (CMTL)
First Trade Date: 01/20/1988; 09:30 a.m.
Trading Strategy: Jupiter is crossing the CMTL First-Trade Descendant this week, with Saturn conjunct First-Trade Vulcanus, Mercury conjunct First-Trade Saturn, and Hades conjunct the First-Trade IC. But the most interesting factor is Mars conjoining the CMTL First-Trade True Lunar Node. The Node has provided some significant support and resistance for this stock in recent months, and the trading for CMTL took it to a 35.45 geocentric North Node line in its most recent session. Although that may be enough to create a price pull-back this week, we think the outlook for CMTL is decidedly bullish. We plan to add a long position in this stock to the Model Portfolio this week, setting our initial stop at 30.18.

Packeteer Inc. (PKTR)
First Trade Date: 07/28/1999; 09:30 a.m.
Trading Strategy: This situation is tough to call. Transiting Cupido has been conjoining the PKTR First-Trade Pluto recently, adding some staying power to the stock’s price appreciation, which is also getting a boost from transiting Jupiter crossing the First-Trade Ascendant. Cupido will soon be moving out of orb, though, and Jupiter won’t stay on the angle long. In addition, the transiting North Lunar Node is now conjunct First-Trade Admetos, bringing a strong sense of price limits coming into play. In fact, a geocentric 50.25 Admetos line, corresponding with the First-Trade position, precisely defined the all-time high for this stock about a month ago. Our expectation is that the price of this stock will increase early this week as Jupiter crosses the First-Trade Ascendant; after that we anticipate a fairly sharp drop in the price of PKTR shares. Our plan is to add a short position to the Model Portfolio this week, setting our initial buy stop at 20.28.

Sigmatron International Inc. (SGMA)
First Trade Date: 02/09/1994; 09:30 a.m.
Trading Strategy: Saturn is crossing the SGMA First-Trade IC, which suggests that this stock should be putting in a bottom in its trading action. In fact, however, SGMA has put in an impressive showing recently. The stock gapped upward last week on a high volume day and came within a few cents of its September high. A Chiron cycle seems to be at work behind the scenes with this stock—a couple of weeks after Chiron formed a semisquare to First-Trade Saturn in June, SGMA broke out of a long basing period and shot up in price. Chiron was in retrograde motion at the time, however, and has since gone direct. It’s about to form that semisquare to First-Trade Saturn again, which suggests to us that the party’s over for SGMA. Some solid support/resistance from a geocentric 23.8 Pluto line and a geocentric 23.625 Cupido line reinforce this picture. We will thus sell SGMA short early this week, setting our initial buy stop at 27.25.


FINANCIAL CYCLES (ISSN 1055-8527) is published by Taylor-Bost Consulting and edited by Tim Bost at Post Office Box 1657, Sarasota, FL 34230-1657 USA. Phone: 941-953-3545. Fax: 941-953-3732. Email: timbost@pipeline.com. Entire contents copyright 2003 Timothy L. Bost. No portion of this Weekly Email Update or its printed version may be reproduced without the publisher's written permission. Subscriptions to FINANCIAL CYCLES are $39.00 per month for weekly updates by email or fax, payable by monthly billing to a major credit card. Advance payment options (by credit card, check, or money order) are $228 for 6 months, $432 for 1 year or $815 for two years. All subscriptions are payable in US funds only— Visa, MasterCard, American Express, Diners Club, and Discover/Novus accepted; please make checks or money orders payable to Taylor-Bost.

By providing a source of independent market analysis, the purpose of FINANCIAL CYCLES is to foster the growth of person-centered business and investment astrology; to enhance the development and dissemination of financial literacy and prosperity consciousness; and to explore the use of technical analysis and financial astrology in promoting an esoteric spiritual understanding of economic trends, geocosmic cycles, geopolitical events, and market movements. FINANCIAL CYCLES is a general interest publication which is prepared from astrological information, news reports, cycle projections, and market observations which are believed to be accurate and reliable, but which cannot be guaranteed. Portfolio and trading reports in this publication do not include taxes and transaction fees, which should be taken into consideration by prospective traders and investors. Even with accurate information, past performance is no guarantee of future results. Speculation in securities and commodities involves considerable financial risk, and readers who plan to invest or speculate in securities or commodities mentioned in FINANCIAL CYCLES have the complete responsibility for making themselves fully aware of all the risks involved before they invest. The editor may or may not have positions in the securities and commodities discussed in this newsletter, and the information in FINANCIAL CYCLES should in no way be understood or construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any products or securities, nor should the material published in this newsletter be considered buy/sell advice.

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posted by Tim Bost @ 11/30/2003 11:45:16 PM