FINANCIAL CYCLES WEEKLY UPDATE #0345 – November 9-15, 2003 with TIM BOST

COMMENT: Last week we warned our readers that due to the Uranus station and the Lunar Eclipse, it would be prudent to “Take precautions in and out of the markets” and to “Be on the lookout for sudden explosions and/or big surprises that can shake things up considerably.”
Explosions were definitely the order of the day during the past week, with U.S. troops suffering heavy casualties when Iraqi resistance fighters shot down helicopters and with suicide bombers wreaking extensive devastation in Saudi Arabia. In the markets, stocks pushed to surprising new highs, but then began to pull back hesitantly.
Ostensibly, the market advances were due to economic reports that came in with much better results than anyone expected. A series of positive surprises suggested that perhaps there is much more economic resilience at work than has been apparent in recent months. Even Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan was unusually optimistic in his assessment, saying that in spite of his serious concerns about the staggering budget deficit (which is likely to hit half a trillion dollars), it actually looks like some jobs may be created soon. And sure enough, the day after Mr. Greenspan made his remarks, the Labor Department reported that the unemployment rate dropped in October. However, the “drop” of 0.1% was due to an upward revision of September’s numbers, and given the statistical margin of error and the fact that the October numbers are only preliminary and subject to revision, it’s entirely possible that the drop was actually an increase.
Of course, with the economy heating up, it also means that interest rates are likely to move up as well. As soon as that happens, we start to walk an economic tight rope, as business activity slows down with the rising cost of borrowing. Tighter money also means less enthusiasm for the stock market, so the good economic news that’s pumping up the market now could very easily wind up provoking a sharp market correction.
The bottom line here is that there’s still a considerable need for caution as we move ahead in the stock market. The full impact of the weekend’s Uranus station has yet to be played out, and we are on our way to a Solar Eclipse on November 23. We were pleased to reap some nice profits from the Model Portfolio during the past week, but as we look at the opportunities ahead, most of them are weighted toward the short side. As always, our underlying strategy is heavily slanted toward effective money management and long-term capital preservation—we would rather miss out on a few profitable moves than wind up being sorry because we acted hastily or because we got too greedy.


THE WEEK AHEAD

More than 1200 companies will report earnings this week, including Wal-Mart (WMT), Target (TGT), Univision (UVN), Starbucks (SBUX), Echostar (DISH), May Department Stores (MAY), TJX Companies (TJX), Applied Materials (AMAT), Federated (FD), Dell Computer (DELL), Medtronic (MDT), PG&E (PCG), and Kohl’s (KSS).
On the economic front, we’re looking for October Export & Import Prices, September Trade Balance, and Retail Sales, Industrial Production, and Capacity Utilization for October, as well as the October Producer Price Index and the latest report from the University of Michigan on Consumer Confidence.
Eclipses and planetary stations are the two most powerful astrological market movers, and during the first part of this week we are likely to see some residual effect from the action in that department that took place over the weekend. We’re also on our way to a Solar Eclipse in a couple of weeks, one which could have a particularly big impact on the London Stock Exchange and the New York markets as well.
In the meantime, we have the Sun moving toward an opposition with the transneptunian planet Admetos on November 14. Admetos acts like a super-charged Saturn, so this may mark a point in which plans (and market trends) “run into a brick wall,” with a major trend reversal. Along the way, we have a particularly interesting day coming up on November 12, with a heliocentric Mars/Vulcanus square (a huge blast of power and coercion) and a geocentric Mars/Venus square taking place as Mercury changes signs and triggers the 11/23 Solar Eclipse energy in advance. And all this takes place against the backdrop of an intraday Void-of-Course Moon!
In other words, we’re looking for a pretty exciting week in the markets, without a lot of clarity about trends and directions, but loaded with upsets, rumors, and the potential for over-reaction. If ever there was a time to be cool, calm and collected, this is it! Have a great week!


GLOBAL EQUITIES MARKETS LAST WEEK

Although stock markets around the world moved into higher territory during the first part of the week, they gave back much of the ground they gained before the week came to an end.

Dow Jones Industrial Average – up 0.09%
Dow Jones Transportation Average – up 2.27%
Dow Jones Utilities Average – down 1.02%
S& P 500 – up 0.24%
NASDAQ Composite Index – up 1.99%
Russell 2000 – up 2.79%
London FTSE-100 – up 2.08%
Paris CAC-40 – up 2.37%
Frankfurt DAX – up 3.46%
Sydney All Ordinaries – down 0.51%
Tokyo Nikkei – up 0.66%
Hong Kong Hang Seng Index – up 0.21%
Singapore Straits Times Index – up 2.63%


FINANCIAL CYCLES MODEL PORTFOLIO


POSITIONS CLOSED DURING THE PREVIOUS WEEK: LIFC, RSLN, STCR, NWRE.

We closed four portfolio positions during the previous week, with four winners producing a net profit of $4,085.00.

On November 3 we bought to cover 1,000 shares of Lifecell Corporation (LIFC) at 6.36, taking a profit of $580.00 (an 8.36% profit in 14 trading days).

On November 3 we sold 500 shares of Roslyn Bancorp at 27.05, taking a profit of $1,775.00 (a 15.11% profit in 24 trading days).

On November 3 we sold 400 shares of Starcraft Corporation (STCR) at 40.45, taking a profit of $1,680.00 (an 11.59% profit in 5 trading days).

On November 5 we bought to cover 500 shares of Neoware Systems, Inc. (NWRE) at 18.40, taking a profit of $50.00 (a 0.54% profit in 6 trading days).

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POSITIONS ADDED TO THE PORTFOLIO DURING THE PREVIOUS WEEK: APCC, INFA, PETM, SPLS, AMTD.

We bought 500 shares of American Power Conversion (APCC) at 20.50 on 11/03/03, setting our initial stop at 18.40.

We sold short 1,000 shares of Informaticia Corporation (INFA) at 10.70 on 11/03/03, setting our initial buy stop at 11.15.

We sold short 400 shares of Petsmart Inc. (PETM) at 25.75 on 11/03/03, setting our initial buy stop at 26.55.

We sold short 400 shares of Staples, Inc. (SPLS) at 27.25 on 11/03/03, setting our initial buy stop at 27.39.

We bought 800 shares of Ameritrade Holding Company, Inc. (AMTD) at 12.50 on 11/05/03, setting our initial stop at 12.25.

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YEAR-IN-REVIEW MODEL PORTFOLIO ACTIVITY

Since the beginning of the year we have had a total of 143 completed trades, with 83 winners and 60 losers bringing us a total net profit of $48,271.00. The largest profit for a single trade has been $9,240.00; the largest single-trade loss has been $900.00; the average profit per trade has been $337.56. The mean duration of our trades has been 10.5 trading days.

During 2002 we had a total of 195 completed trades, with 119 winners, 74 losers, and 2 break-even trades bringing us a total net profit of $50,956.00. The largest profit for a single trade was $5,100.00; the largest single-trade loss was $1,055.00; the average profit per trade was $261.31. The mean duration of our trades was 12.7 trading days.

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CURRENT POSITIONS IN THE MODEL PORTFOLIO

Ameritrade Holding Company, Inc. (AMTD) – bought 800 shares at 12.50 on 11/05/03; currently 12.81. Stop set at 12.25.

American Power Conversion (APCC) – bought 500 shares at 20.50 on 11/03/03; currently 22.26. Raise stop to 20.25.

Commercial Capital Bancorp (CCBI) – bought 600 shares at 17.15 on 10/20/03; currently 21.00. Raise stop to 18.70.

Informaticia Corporation (INFA) – sold short 1,000 shares at 10.70 on 11/03/03; currently 10.36. Lower buy stop to 10.95.

Petsmart Inc. (PETM) – sold short 400 shares at 25.75 on 11/03/03; currently 25.74. Buy stop set at 26.55.

Qlogic Corporation (QLGC) – bought 200 shares at 51.15 on 10/14/03; currently 57.49. Raise stop to 56.10.

Staples, Inc. (SPLS) – sold short 400 shares at 27.25 on 11/03/03; currently 27.08 Buy stop set at 27.39.

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STRONGEST MARKET SECTORS LAST WEEK

Long-Term Care Facilities; Marketing Services; Shipping; Copper; Aerospace/Defense Products & Services.

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WEAKEST MARKET SECTORS LAST WEEK

Music & Video Stores; Diversified Investments; Domestic Telecom Services; Data Storage Devices; Residential REITs.

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KEY ASTROLOGICAL EVENTS THIS WEEK

November 9
Heliocentric Venus opposition Heliocentric Saturn 00:35 EST
Venus conjunct Cupido 01:52 EST
Venus contraparallel Hades in right ascension 03:11 EST
Venus contraparallel Hades 04:38 EST
Venus sesquiquadrate Vulcanus 04:38 EST
Sun trine Saturn in right ascension 04:39 EST
Mars semisextile Neptune in right ascension 05:01 EST
Venus sextile Zeus 05:36 EST
True Lunar Node direct station 05:45 EST
Venus conjunct Cupido in right ascension 06:47 EST
Venus semisquare Apollon 07:51 EST
Venus semisquare Apollon in right ascension 10:00 EST
Heliocentric Venus semisextile Heliocentric Cupido 10:35 EST
Sun sextile Chiron in right ascension 18:00 EST
Void-of-Course Moon begins 21:59 EST

November 10
Void-of-Course Moon ends 00:14 EST
Heliocentric Earth quincunx Heliocentric Mercury 03:26 EST
Venus sextile Zeus in right ascension 03:37 EST
Venus opposition 05/31/03 Solar Eclipse Point 04:52 EST
Mars parallel Apollon 05:42 EST
Mars parallel Apollon in right ascension 06:19 EST
Heliocentric Mercury semisextile Heliocentric Chiron 07:56 EST
Mercury parallel Cupido in right ascension 09:51 EST
Mercury parallel Cupido 10:31 EST
Mercury trine Vulcanus in right ascension 10:41 EST
Heliocentric Earth trine Heliocentric Chiron 15:54 EST
Mercury sesquiquadrate Saturn 19:04 EST
Heliocentric Mercury conjunct Heliocentric Pluto 21:20 EST

November 11
Venus sextile Neptune 03:30 EST
Sun semisextile Pluto 05:57 EST
Heliocentric Mercury semisquare Heliocentric Poseidon 08:14 EST
Mercury square Uranus 09:04 EST
Sun sextile Jupiter in right ascension 09:24 EST
Sun sesquiquadrate Kronos in right ascension 11:25 EST
Mercury semisquare Chiron 15:04
Heliocentric Mercury trine Heliocentric Mars 18:13 EST
Heliocentric Mercury quincunx Heliocentric 18:15 EST
Heliocentric Mars semisextile Heliocentric Admetos 18:22 EST
Heliocentric Mercury quincunx Heliocentric Vulcanus 22:07 EST
Heliocentric Venus semisextile Heliocentric Neptune 22:11 EST
Mars trine Saturn in right ascension 22:23 EST
Heliocentric Mercury opposition Heliocentric Hades 22:51 EST
Venus sesquiquadrate Vulcanus in right ascension 23:26 EST
Mars square 12/04/02 Solar Eclipse Point 23:26 EST

November 12
Mercury enters Sagittarius 02:19 EST
Heliocentric Mercury sextile Heliocentric Apollon 02:42 EST
Mercury contraparallel Vulcanus in right ascension 03:44 EST
Sun parallel Neptune in right ascension 03:48 EST
Sun parallel Neptune 03:51 EST
Mercury contraparallel Vulcanus 04:31 EST
Heliocentric Earth quincunx Heliocentric Pluto 04:32 EST
Mercury square 04/19/04 Solar Eclipse Antiscion 05:12 EST
Heliocentric Mercury in 24th harmonic to Heliocentric Cupido 07:18 EST
Venus conjunct 12/04/02 Solar Eclipse Point 07:43 EST
Void-of-Course Moon 10:57 – 13:10 EST
Heliocentric Mars square Heliocentric Vulcanus 12:06 EST
Venus square Mars 12:27 EST
Heliocentric Mars sextile Heliocentric Hades 15:33 EST
Mercury conjunct 11/23/03 Solar Eclipse Point 21:41 EST
Mercury quincunx Kronos 22:12 EST

November 13
Mercury sesquiquadrate Saturn in right ascension 00:24 EST
Sun opposition True Lunar Node 01:16 EST
Sun contraparallel True Lunar Node 01:20 EST
True Lunar Node retrograde station 01:23 EST
Sun contraparallel True Lunar Node in right ascension 02:12 EST
Sun opposition True Lunar Node in right ascension 02:12 EST
Venus quincunx Saturn 02:19 EST
Heliocentric Mars opposition Heliocentric Apollon 09:11 EST
Sun semisextile Pluto in right ascension 12:25 EST
Sun in 24th harmonic to Poseidon 14:16 EST
Mercury semisquare Chiron in right ascension 14:44 EST
Mercury enters Sagittarius in right ascension 15:52 EST
Mercury contraparallel Saturn in right ascension 16:34 EST
Mercury contraparallel Saturn 16:39 EST
Heliocentric Mercury semisquare Heliocentric Neptune 17:24 EST
Cupido sesquiquadrate Vulcanus 19:28 EST
Mercury contraparallel Hades in right ascension 23:44 EST

November 14
Mars trine Saturn 00:24 EST
Mercury contraparallel Hades 00:43 EST
Heliocentric Mars sesquiquadrate Heliocentric Cupido 06:28 EST
Mars sextile Chiron in right ascension 06:53 EST
Venus sextile Neptune in right ascension 07:10 EST
Venus semisextile Chiron 07:58 EST
Void-of-Course Moon begins 08:39 EST
Mercury square Uranus in right ascension 11:46 EST
Mercury quincunx Kronos in right ascension 12:31 EST
Mercury in 24th harmonic to Pluto 13:15 EST
Heliocentric Earth conjunct Heliocentric Admetos 13:36 EST
Sun opposition Admetos 13:44 EST
Sun contraparallel Admetos in right ascension 13:45 EST
Sun opposition Admetos in right ascension 13:46 EST
Sun contraparallel Admetos 14:47 EST
Heliocentric Mercury enters Capricorn 15:56 EST
Heliocentric Venus semisquare Heliocentric Uranus 16:05 EST
Heliocentric Mercury opposition Heliocentric Kronos 21:53 EST
Venus contraparallel Kronos in right ascension 22:29 EST
Venus square Jupiter 22:34 EST
Venus quincunx Saturn in right ascension 23:22 EST

November 15
Heliocentric Earth sextile Heliocentric Vulcanus 00:11 EST
Venus contraparallel Kronos 00:33 EST
Void-of-Course Moon ends 00:48 EST
Heliocentric Earth semisextile Heliocentric Hades 02:19 EST
Heliocentric Earth sesquiquadrate Heliocentric Zeus 03:29 EST
Heliocentric Mercury sextile Heliocentric Uranus 06:47 EST
Heliocentric Earth quincunx Heliocentric Apollon 12:46 EST
Heliocentric Venus conjunct Heliocentric Chiron 13:44 EST
Heliocentric Earth semisquare Heliocentric Saturn 15:07 EST
Sun trine Vulcanus 15:25 EST
Sun quincunx Hades 15:47 EST
Sun in 24th harmonic to Cupido 16:50 EST
Heliocentric Mercury in 24th harmonic to Heliocentric Chiron 18:58 EST
Sun semisquare Zeus 19:32 EST
Venus semisextile Chiron in right ascension 20:30 EST
Sun semisextile Apollon 22:16 EST
Mercury semisextile Poseidon in right ascension 23:41 EST

November 16
Mercury semisextile Poseidon 01:22 EST
Heliocentric Mercury in 24th harmonic to Heliocentric Venus 01:35 EST
Mars in 24th harmonic to Uranus 04:55
Heliocentric Mercury in 24th harmonic to Heliocentric Pluto 07:19 EST
Venus square Mars in right ascension 10:32 EST
Heliocentric Venus semisextile Heliocentric Pluto 11:48 EST
Sun semisquare Apollon in right ascension 13:36 EST
Heliocentric Mercury trine Heliocentric Jupiter 16:01 EST
Heliocentric Mercury sextile Heliocentric Poseidon 17:41 EST
True Lunar Node direct station 22:06 EST

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STOCKS TO WATCH: AACE, AKAM, CYPB, LSTR, PTEK.

Ace Cash Express Inc. (AACE)
First Trade Date: 12/02/1992; 09:30 a.m.
Trading Strategy: With retrograde Saturn backing up over the AACE First-Trade Descendant during the coming week, we may be in store for a price pull-back on this stock. In our book, that’s a buying opportunity. Right now AACE is hovering near a heliocentric Cupido line at 20.05; if it closes below that line it will provide us with the buy signal we’re looking for. Our plan is to add a long position in this stock to the Model Portfolio, setting our initial stop at 17.65.

Akamai Technologies Inc. (AKAM)
First Trade Date: 10/29/1999; 09:30 a.m.
Trading Strategy: Here’s a stock that was a high flyer when it began trading as a part of the dot-com boom, but which has been struggling to get out of the basement in more recent times. In the last 12 months it has shown considerable strength, and it has a broad following as Jupiter gets ready to move over its First-Trade Midheaven this week. We wouldn’t be surprised to see AKAM squeak out a little bit more to the upside during the next couple of weeks. As Jupiter passes out of the picture, however, we’re convinced that this stock will be headed south for the next few months. Our plan is to sell AKAM short either late this week or early next week; if we get a closing price above 11.33 we will re-evaluate that strategy—otherwise, that price level will become our initial buy stop.
Cypress Bioscience Inc. (CYPB)
First Trade Date: 01/11/1984; 10:00 a.m.
Trading Strategy: A geocentric Jupiter line at 26.875 has precisely defined resistance zones for this stock in the past; during last week’s trading CYPB made a high on an increment of the line on Wednesday, then penetrated the line on Thursday, and then used the line as support on Friday. With transiting Pluto hovering near the First-Trade Midheaven, plus Mars moving across the First-Trade Ascendant and Jupiter crossing the First-Trade Descendant, there’s a good likelihood that this stock will get short-term support for further price advances. The situation is likely to change quite rapidly, however. Mars and Jupiter won’t stay on First-Trade angles for long, and CYPB will have to break through some heavy resistance created by heliocentric Pluto and Zeus in the 24th harmonic. Rather than adding a long position in CYPB to the Model Portfolio this week; we will take a contrarian’s stance and sell this stock short. Our initial buy stop will be set at 14.32.

Landstar System Inc. (LSTR)
First Trade Date: 03/05/1993; 09:30 a.m.
Trading Strategy: This stock has had an impressive run-up recently, but we suspect that it’s about to come to an end after transiting Jupiter forms its opposition to the LSTR First-Trade Sun this week, just as the stock undergoes a 2-for-1 split. While LSTR has good longer-term potential, with a good likelihood of significant price appreciation after the first of the year, our plan is to sell this stock short to see if we can reap some more immediate profits. We will be setting our initial buy stop at 77.04.

PTEK Holdings Inc. (PTEK)
First Trade Date: 03/05/1996; 09:30 a.m.
Trading Strategy: Jupiter and Saturn both come into play with PTEK this week. Transiting Saturn will be in opposition to the PTEK First-Trade Jupiter, and transiting Jupiter will be in opposition to the PTEK First-Trade Sun. This suggests that the stock’s efforts to move higher will get stalled. What makes the situation even more interesting, however, is the fact that PTEK also has a Mars return coming up. Mars adds a lot of extra energy to the picture, and in this case it’s energy to bring the stock price down! Our plan is to sell PTEK short this week, setting our initial buy stop at 9.87.

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FINANCIAL CYCLES (ISSN 1055-8527) is published by Taylor-Bost Consulting and edited by Tim Bost at Post Office Box 1657, Sarasota, FL 34230-1657 USA. Phone: 941-953-3545. Fax: 941-953-3732. Email: timbost@pipeline.com. Entire contents copyright 2003 Timothy L. Bost. No portion of this Weekly Email Update or its printed version may be reproduced without the publisher's written permission. Subscriptions to FINANCIAL CYCLES are $39.00 per month for weekly updates by email or fax, payable by monthly billing to a major credit card. Advance payment options (by credit card, check, or money order) are $228 for 6 months, $432 for 1 year or $815 for two years. All subscriptions are payable in US funds only— Visa, MasterCard, American Express, Diners Club, and Discover/Novus accepted; please make checks or money orders payable to Taylor-Bost.

By providing a source of independent market analysis, the purpose of FINANCIAL CYCLES is to foster the growth of person-centered business and investment astrology; to enhance the development and dissemination of financial literacy and prosperity consciousness; and to explore the use of technical analysis and financial astrology in promoting an esoteric spiritual understanding of economic trends, geocosmic cycles, geopolitical events, and market movements. FINANCIAL CYCLES is a general interest publication which is prepared from astrological information, news reports, cycle projections, and market observations which are believed to be accurate and reliable, but which cannot be guaranteed. Portfolio and trading reports in this publication do not include taxes and transaction fees, which should be taken into consideration by prospective traders and investors. Even with accurate information, past performance is no guarantee of future results. Speculation in securities and commodities involves considerable financial risk, and readers who plan to invest or speculate in securities or commodities mentioned in FINANCIAL CYCLES have the complete responsibility for making themselves fully aware of all the risks involved before they invest. The editor may or may not have positions in the securities and commodities discussed in this newsletter, and the information in FINANCIAL CYCLES should in no way be understood or construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any products or securities, nor should the material published in this newsletter be considered buy/sell advice.

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posted by Tim Bost @ 11/09/2003 10:19:09 PM