FINANCIAL CYCLES WEEKLY UPDATE #0341 – October 12-18, 2003 with TIM BOST

COMMENT: This week’s issue of our newsletter is a bit briefer than usual due to travel commitments—during the past week I’ve been in Anaheim, California for a conference hosted by the International Society for Astrological Research (ISAR). It has been a remarkable gathering of astrologers from around the world, including major contingents attending from eastern Europe and Latin America.
The conference began with a full day workshop on financial astrology. As one of the speakers on the program, I talked about the Hidden Factors in Financial Astrology, including my latest research on the impact of the transneptunian planet Poseidon on the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Other highlights from the conference included a presentation by Ray Merriman on the S&P 500’s response to Venus retrograde periods, comments by Stan Harley on cycles in the stock market (“We won’t trade substantially above the record highs of recent years for at least another 15 to 20 years,”) some innovative work by Manfred Zimmel on the role of the Galactic Center in financial astrology, and a very interesting presentation by Orest Taraban on planetary cycles and price patterns in the markets.
The event featured dozens of lectures about all sort of astrological topics, and the crowd that gathered in Anaheim was quite diverse. But throughout the week it was clear that there is a huge interest in financial astrology. The application of astrological knowledge to the financial markets is still a new notion in some parts of the world, but with the word spreading about its enormous potential for enhancing profitable trading and investing, it won’t stay a secret for long!
It was certainly interesting to be in California while the gubernatorial elections were showcasing Government as Entertainment. It added a fresh perspective to the current internal battles going on between the White House, the Department of Defense, the CIA and the State Department—lack of clarity in leadership seems to be the order of the day.
Not that California or Washington have an absolute corner on confusion. Speaking in Moscow, European Central Bank President Wim Duisenberg announced that the world’s foreign exchange markets were all confused about last month's statement from the Group of Seven richest nations which tried to encourage greater flexibility in global exchange rates. The G7 statement triggered dollar dumping around the globe, while the euro soared. Although Duisenberg refused to comment on the euro's current exchange rate, he did hint that pumping up the euro at the dollar’s expense was not exactly what the G7 participants had in mind.
Also in Moscow, Energy Minister Igor Usufov said that Russia won’t be falling in line with OPEC’s plan for keeping oil prices high. Since Russia is the world’s second-largest oil exporter, the move could force global oil prices down. That might be good news for U.S. consumers, but it’s unlikely to be greeted with much enthusiasm by the big oil companies.
The economy has been trying hard to get moving again, but jobs remain a core issue. With the pharmaceutical sector picking up some steam, we are starting to see some announcements of planned IPOs in biotechnology, with more than a dozen on the calendar between now and the end of the year. Foreign oil stocks and the airlines have also been gaining some strength, while furniture manufacturing and retail furniture stocks have started to show some weakness—apparently furniture sales just aren’t keeping pace with housing starts.


THE WEEK AHEAD

It’s a very busy week for earnings reports and for economic news, too. We should get reports this week from Bank of America (BAC), BB&T (BBT), Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB), First Data (FDC), General Motors (GM), Gannett (GCI), Intel (INTC), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Merrill Lynch (MER), Motorola (MOT), FleetBoston (FBF), Allstate (ALL), Kraft Foods (KFT), IBM (IBM), Wachovia (WB), Ford (F), Coca-Cola (KO), Altria (MO), Caterpillar (CAT), Honeywell (HON), Fannie Mae (FNM), MBNA (KRB), Nextel (NTXL), and United Technologies (UTX), along with many others.
The economic news should include September Retail Sales, Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization, Housing Starts, and Building Permits, as well as the September Consumer Price Index, August Business Inventories, the Empire State Index, and the preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Confidence numbers for October.
The astrological picture is not nearly as intense this week as has been the case recently, but that doesn’t necessarily mean that things will calm down in the markets. For example, one the planetary aspects this week is a Mercury/Chiron square. This dynamic has sent the stock market up roughly 70% of the time during the past couple of decades. There’s thus a good likelihood that some bullishness will continue in the market for this week, but there are growing signs that the situation is getting dangerously toppy. It looks like the market will start heading down forcefully as we move into late October and early November.
Have a great week!


GLOBAL EQUITIES MARKETS LAST WEEK

Except for Japan, the Pacific Rim markets surged last week, with Singapore and Sydney leading the advance. In Europe and the U.S., however, the momentum in the equities markets slowed down, with the Paris CAC-40 and the S&P 500 ending the week virtually unchanged and the Dow Utilities starting to lose ground.

Dow Jones Industrial Average – up 1.07%
Dow Jones Transportation Average – up 1.39%
Dow Jones Utilities Average – down 0.07%
S& P 500 – up 0.80%
NASDAQ Composite Index – up 1.85%
Russell 2000 – up 1.32%
London FTSE-100 – up 0.87%
Paris CAC-40 – up 0.30%
Frankfurt DAX – up 1.53%
Sydney All Ordinaries – up 1.89%
Tokyo Nikkei – up 0.80%
Hong Kong Hang Seng Index – up 2.93%
Singapore Straits Times Index – up 4.53%


FINANCIAL CYCLES MODEL PORTFOLIO


POSITIONS CLOSED DURING THE PREVIOUS WEEK: SSYS, TUES, IVGN.

We closed three portfolio positions during the previous week, with two winners and one loser producing a net profit of $480.00.

On October 6 we bought to cover 200 shares of Stratasys Inc. (SSYS) at 48.00, taking a profit of $850.00 (a 8.13% gain in 10 trading days).

On October 7 we bought to cover 300 shares of Tuesday Morning Corporation (TUES) at 30.47, taking a profit of $144.00 (a 1.55% gain in 11 trading days).

On October 10 we bought to cover 200 shares of Invitrogren Corporation (IVGN) at 61.07, taking a loss of $514.00 (a 4.39% loss in 6 trading days).

*****


POSITIONS ADDED TO THE PORTFOLIO DURING THE PREVIOUS WEEK: SNIC, UPFC, ABMD, ORLY.

We bought 500 shares of Sonic Solutions (SNIC) at 18.00 on 10/06/03, setting our initial stop at 16.50.

We sold short 500 shares of United PanAm Financial Corporation (UPFC) at 19.25 on 10/06/03, setting our initial buy stop at 20.05.

We sold short 1,000 shares of Abiomed Inc. (ABMD) at 8.75 on 10/07.03, setting our initial buy stop at 9.61.

We bought 200 shares of O’Reilly Automotive Inc..(ORLY) at 39.17 on 10/09/03, setting our initial stop at 36.50.

*****


YEAR-IN-REVIEW MODEL PORTFOLIO ACTIVITY

Since the beginning of the year we have had a total of 131 completed trades, with 77 winners and 54 losers bringing us a total net profit of $44,420.00. The largest profit for a single trade has been $9,240.00; the largest single-trade loss has been $900.00; the average profit per trade has been $339.08. The mean duration of our trades has been 10.8 trading days.

During 2002 we had a total of 195 completed trades, with 119 winners, 74 losers, and 2 break-even trades bringing us a total net profit of $50,956.00. The largest profit for a single trade was $5,100.00; the largest single-trade loss was $1,055.00; the average profit per trade was $261.31. The mean duration of our trades was 12.7 trading days.

*****


CURRENT POSITIONS IN THE MODEL PORTFOLIO

Abiomed Inc. (ABMD) – sold short 1,000 shares at 8.75 on 10/07.03; currently 8.62. Lower buy stop to 9.01.

N I C Inc. (EGOV) – bought 1,000 shares at 4.79 on 10/02/03; currently 4.97. Raise stop to 4.51.

O’Reilly Automotive Inc..(ORLY) – bought 200 shares at 39.17 on 10/09/03; currently 39.26. Raise stop to 38.25.

Roslyn Bancorp (RSLN) – bought 500 shares at 23.50 on 09/30/03; currently 24.20. Raise stop to 24.00.

Sonic Solutions (SNIC) – bought 500 shares at 18.00 on 10/06/03; currently 18.60. Raise stop to 17.50.

United PanAm Financial Corporation (UPFC) – sold short 500 shares at 19.25 on 10/06/03; currently 18.44. Lower buy stop to 19.40.

*****


STRONGEST MARKET SECTORS LAST WEEK

Diagnostic Substances, Major Airlines, Internet Information Providers, Other Air Services, Toy & Hobby Stores.

*****


WEAKEST MARKET SECTORS LAST WEEK

Packaging & Containers, Photographic Equipment & Supplies, Manufactured Housing, Processed & Packaged Goods, Insurance Brokers.

*****


KEY ASTROLOGICAL EVENTS THIS WEEK

October 12
Heliocentric Venus in 24th harmonic to Cupido 01:48 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury quincunx Neptune 04:19 EDT
Venus trine Uranus in right ascension 12:56 EDT
Venus trine Kronos in right ascension 13:16 EDT
Sun sextile Pluto in right ascension 14:17 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury contraparallel Uranus 19:02 EDT
Mercury trine Neptune 21:53 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury parallel Jupiter 22:44 EDT
Heliocentric Earth trine Pluto 23:31 EDT

October 13
Venus parallel Uranus 05:08 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury trine Chiron 08:16 EDT
Venus semisquare Pluto in right ascension 08:23 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury in 24th harmonic to Jupiter 11:18 EDT
Mercury parallel Zeus 14:44 EDT
Void-of-Course Moon 17:02 – 18:45 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury square Pluto 19:10 EDT
Sun in 24th harmonic to Venus 19:11 EDT
Mercury in 24th harmonic to Jupiter in right ascension 20:51 EDT
Venus conjunct Poseidon in right ascension 23:19 EDT

October 14
Heliocentric Earth quincunx Mercury 01:00 EDT
Heliocentric Venus contraparallel Admetos 02:49 EDT
Venus conjunct Poseidon 02:53 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury semisquare Poseidon 02:55 EDT
Sun in 24th harmonic to Poseidon 04:53 EDT
Mars parallel Pluto 04:55 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury contraparallel Apollon 05:12 EDT
Mercury square Chiron 06:49 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury trine Admetos 09:16 EDT
Mercury square Saturn 10:49 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury sextile Vulcanus 11:46 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury square Hades 12:02 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury in 24th harmonic to Zeus 12:25 EDT
Mercury trine Neptune in right ascension 13:19 EDT
Heliocentric Earth parallel Mercury 14:03 EDT
Sun quincunx North Lunar Node in right ascension 15:19 EDT
Mercury square Chiron in right ascension 19:36 EDT

October 15
Mercury sesquiquadrate Uranus 00:50 EDT
Sun quincunx Admetos in right ascension 03:50 EDT
Venus parallel Poseidon 05:49 EDT
Mercury square Saturn in right ascension 09:22 EDT
Sun quincunx North Lunar Node 10:04 EDT
Sun contraparallel Jupiter 15:37 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury sesquiquadrate Neptune 15:49 EDT
Venus trine Mars in right ascension 22:10 EDT
Sun sesquiquadrate Mars in right ascension 22:17 EDT
Sun quincunx Admetos 22:27 EDT
Venus in 24th harmonic to Apollon 22:51 EDT
Apollon retrograde station 23:18 EDT
Sun semisquare Cupido 23:43 EDT
Heliocentric Earth square Vulcanus 23:46 EDT

October 16
Venus in 24th harmonic to Cupido in right ascension 00:14 EDT
Sun semisquare Cupido in right ascension 00:57 EDT
Heliocentric Earth sextile Hades 01:00 EDT
Venus parallel Mars 02:04 EDT
Void-of-Course Moon 05:54 – 07:41 EDT
Heliocentric Venus enters Sagittarius 06:01 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury enters Libra 08:22 EDT
Sun in 24th harmonic to Zeus 08:31 EDT
Heliocentric Mars quincunx Poseidon 08:52 EDT
Venus sesquiquadrate Hades 09:03 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury sextile Venus 09:53 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury square Kronos 12:09 EDT
Mars square Cupido in right ascension 12:11 EDT
Sun conjunct Apollon 12:16 EDT
Sun conjunct Apollon in right ascension 12:17 EDT
Heliocentric Earth opposition Apollon 12:23 EDT
Sun parallel Apollon 12:40 EDT
Heliocentric Earth contraparallel Apollon 12:47 EDT
Jupiter quincunx Neptune 14:48 EDT
Heliocentric Venus quincunx Kronos 15:36 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury quincunx Uranus 16:53 EDT
Sun square Vulcanus 17:41 EDT
Heliocentric Saturn semisquare Admetos 18:18 EDT
Venus parallel Pluto 18:36 EDT
Mercury sesquiquadrate Uranus in right ascension 20:31 EDT
Heliocentric Earth sesquiquadrate Cupido 23:49 EDT

October 17
Apollon direct station 00:41 EDT
Sun trine Hades 00:44 EDT
Mercury sesquiquadrate Mars 01:29 EDT
Heliocentric Venus square Uranus 03:20 EDT
Venus in 24th harmonic to Zeus in right ascension 03:52 EDT
Mercury sextile Pluto 04:27 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury contraparallel Zeus 08:01 EDT
Mercury sextile Pluto in right ascension 13:58 EDT
Venus sesquiquadrate Hades in right ascension 18:49 EDT
Heliocentric Venus semisquare Chiron 19:55 EDT
Venus square Neptune 23:42 EDT

October 18
Heliocentric Mercury parallel Mars 02:28 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury opposition Mars 02:42 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury sesquiquadrate Admetos 03:05 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury square Saturn 03:24 EDT
Heliocentric Mars semisquare Admetos 05:03 EDT
Venus sextile Jupiter 05:32 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury conjunct Zeus 06:39 EDT
Heliocentric Mars square Saturn 07:11 EDT
Sun trine Hades in right ascension 07:41 EDT
Void-of-Course Moon 08:31 – 18:41 EDT
Heliocentric Venus square Jupiter 08:35 EDT
Mars parallel Poseidon 09:07 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury in 24th harmonic to Apollon 09:11 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury sextile Cupido 12:11 EDT
Mercury quincunx North Lunar Node in right ascension 13:44 EDT
Mars sesquiquadrate Apollon in right ascension 16:23 EDT
Mercury quincunx Admetos in right ascension 23:45 EDT

October 19
Heliocentric Venus in 24th harmonic to Pluto 00:42 EDT
Heliocentric Mars opposition Zeus 03:01 EDT
Mercury quincunx North Lunar Node 08:09 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury trine Neptune 13:20 EDT
Mercury semisquare Cupido in right ascension 14:06 EDT
Sun semisquare Jupiter 14:42 EDT
Mercury quincunx Admetos 17:40 EDT
Mercury semisquare Cupido 20:07 EDT
Mercury conjunct Apollon in right ascension 20:22 EDT

*****


STOCKS TO WATCH: CCRT, GDYS, LIFC, QLGC.

Compucredit Corporation (CCRT)
First Trade Date: 04/23/1999; 09:30 a.m.
Trading Strategy: We have been looking for CCRT to close above the Chiron/Poseidon resistance zone between 19.11 and 19.17 to confirm a breakout; during the past week it traded through that zone but failed to close there. We’re leaving it on the Watch List this week. When CCRT does close above the Chiron/Poseidon resistance zone, we will add a long position to the Model Portfolio, setting our initial stop at 16.70.

Goody’s Family Clothing Inc. (GDYS)
First Trade Date: 10/25/1991; 09:30 a.m.
Trading Strategy: With transiting Jupiter currently conjoining First-Trade Jupiter at the First-Trade Midheaven, it’s not at all surprising that GDYS has seen a nice price run-up lately. But it won’t take long for Jupiter to move on along its way, leaving not much behind to hold the price up. In fact, since late August this stock has repeatedly met resistance along a geocentric Jupiter line at 15.85, corresponding with the First-Trade Jupiter position. We’re going to short this stock this week, setting our initial buy stop at 11.50.

Lifecell Corporation (LIFC)
First Trade Date: 02/28/1992; 9:30 a.m.
Trading Strategy: We were watching LIFC last week, when we noted that “this stock is on our list of candidates for a possible short position—Jupiter’s current transit to the First-Trade Sun/Jupiter opposition won’t last long, and Saturn is inexorably working its way toward the First-Trade IC. If we don’t get a breakout above 7.12 by the end of this week, we will sell LIFC short, setting our initial buy stop at 7.41. If the breakout comes, however, we will add a long position, with an initial stop at 6.10.” As it turned out, that breakout didn’t come, so our plan is to initiate our short position early this week.

Qlogic Corporation (QLGC)
First Trade Date: 02/28/1994; 09:30 a.m.
Trading Strategy: This stock’s price movements have been structured nicely along a geocentric Uranus line corresponding with that planet’s position in the First-Trade horoscope. The transits to that chart are quite interesting right now, with Jupiter in opposition to the First-Trade Sun and the transiting Nodal axis exactly aligning with the First-Trade Ascendant axis. Transiting Mars is getting ready to activate the First-Trade Sun and Venus, and we expect more positive price action as a result. Our plan is to add a long position in QLGC to the Model Portfolio this week, setting our initial stop at 46.56.


FINANCIAL CYCLES (ISSN 1055-8527) is published by Taylor-Bost Consulting and edited by Tim Bost at Post Office Box 1657, Sarasota, FL 34230-1657 USA. Phone: 941-953-3545. Fax: 941-953-3732. Email: timbost@pipeline.com. Entire contents copyright 2003 Timothy L. Bost. No portion of this Weekly Email Update or its printed version may be reproduced without the publisher's written permission. Subscriptions to FINANCIAL CYCLES are $39.00 per month for weekly updates by email or fax, payable by monthly billing to a major credit card. Advance payment options (by credit card, check, or money order) are $228 for 6 months, $432 for 1 year or $815 for two years. All subscriptions are payable in US funds only— Visa, MasterCard, American Express, Diners Club, and Discover/Novus accepted; please make checks or money orders payable to Taylor-Bost.

By providing a source of independent market analysis, the purpose of FINANCIAL CYCLES is to foster the growth of person-centered business and investment astrology; to enhance the development and dissemination of financial literacy and prosperity consciousness; and to explore the use of technical analysis and financial astrology in promoting an esoteric spiritual understanding of economic trends, geocosmic cycles, geopolitical events, and market movements. FINANCIAL CYCLES is a general interest publication which is prepared from astrological information, news reports, cycle projections, and market observations which are believed to be accurate and reliable, but which cannot be guaranteed. Portfolio and trading reports in this publication do not include taxes and transaction fees, which should be taken into consideration by prospective traders and investors. Even with accurate information, past performance is no guarantee of future results. Speculation in securities and commodities involves considerable financial risk, and readers who plan to invest or speculate in securities or commodities mentioned in FINANCIAL CYCLES have the complete responsibility for making themselves fully aware of all the risks involved before they invest. The editor may or may not have positions in the securities and commodities discussed in this newsletter, and the information in FINANCIAL CYCLES should in no way be understood or construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any products or securities, nor should the material published in this newsletter be considered buy/sell advice.

*****

posted by Tim Bost @ 10/12/2003 08:15:12 PM