FINANCIAL CYCLES WEEKLY UPDATE #0340 – October 5-11, 2003 with TIM BOST

COMMENT: In last week’s forecast we suggested that the “real news. . . should be the amount of volatility in the markets—watch for some wild swings ahead!” As things turned out, wild was certainly the right word for it—there was more than enough volatility to go around!
Things began innocently enough last week. The U.S. stock market managed to post modest gains on Monday, with the Dow Industrials up a little more than 67 points. On Tuesday, however, with the dollar plunging against the yen, the White House facing the possibility of a criminal investigation, and Mars triggering the antiscion of next spring’s solar eclipse against the backdrop of a Venus/Pluto sextile, stocks took a nosedive, with the Dow off over 100 points by the end of the trading day. We noted in our last issue that Wednesday’s retrograde station by the transneptunian planet Kronos was likely to bring “high stock prices,” and the market responded appropriately, sending the Dow up nearly 200 points. It was the beginning of an upward trend that held through the end of the week, finishing on Friday (when we had called for “an optimistic pop in stock prices as we close out the trading week” in response to the Venus/Apollon conjunction) with another strong move up, enabling the Dow to hit 9666 intraday, just 20 points shy of its high for the year, before closing up nearly 85 points on the day despite heavy profit-taking in the last 90 minutes of trading.
By the way, with last week’s Kronos station, we had also commented that since “Kronos is connected with things that happen at great heights,” we might see air travel figure prominently in the news. So it really wasn’t too much of a surprise when Pakistan successfully tested a Hatf III ballistic missile capable of carrying nuclear warheads. Nor was it a shock when KLM and Air France announced plans for a mega-merger. The new company, to be called Air France-KLM, would operate a fleet of 540 aircraft to serve 226 destinations around the world, employing about 106,000 people and generating annual revenues in excess of $22 billion.
As usual, the mainstream media failed to give much recognition to the astrological factors underlying market movements, and we saw no mention at all of the Venus/Apollon conjunction in connection with Friday’s market surge. Instead, the pundits attributed the rally to the Labor Department’s report on unemployment—for the first time in 8 months, the U.S. private sector actually added some new jobs in September—about 57,000 of them!
The number of U.S. workers who have been unemployed for six months or more is now at a 20-year high, so the addition of new jobs was something worth celebrating. Fundamentally, however, the perceived shift in the job market is bogus. The problem, of course, is that even with jobs suddenly being created, they aren’t enough to impact the unemployment situation. More than half of the jobs created last month were temporary ones, which indicates that employers are being very cautious with their hiring as the economy struggles to recover. It also suggests that these additional new jobs could quickly vanish. Even more important is the fact that the U.S. labor force grows by approximately 115,000 people every month. That means that at least 115,000 new jobs need to be added monthly, just for the unemployment numbers to tread water. So even though jobs were added, net unemployment actually got a little worse.
But on Wall Street, as in many other situations, the perception winds up becoming the reality, with or without the help of Venus and Apollon. Friday’s enthusiasm capped off a very positive week. It remains to be seen, however, whether or not that enthusiasm can be sustained as earnings season gets underway. Our bias favors more corrective action rather than a further push upward, but if the Dow puts in a couple of solid consecutive closes above 9600, we would expect price levels at 9840 to follow soon.
Nevertheless, as savvy traders we need to remember that things are not always as they seem, both in and out of the markets. That has certainly proven to be the case in the Czech Republic, where the new telephone books recently issued by Mediatel included a misprint of the phone number for the Ministry of Finance. The phone number listed in the phone book, instead of being the correct one for the ministry, was the number for the Bohunice Psychiatric Hospital. Bohuslav Sobotka, the Czech Minister of Finance, commented last week that the error demonstrated what was “truly a lack of seriousness by the publisher.”
The message for us as astro-traders is that profitable trading always requires us to be extremely forgiving of our mistakes—we have to respond to what the market actually does, rather than to what our forecasts and theories tell us. That means we must be willing to admit our errors quickly and without regret, rather than hanging on to losing trades in the vain hope that our positions will ultimately be vindicated.
That may imply a lack of seriousness on our part, but it’s the only way we can walk away with money in our pockets at the end of the trading day.


THE WEEK AHEAD

With a new Quarter underway, it’s time for earnings reports to crank up again. The consensus on Wall Street is that earning should be improving now, given the number of layoffs and cutbacks that most companies have made. We’ll be seeing a lot of reports during the next few weeks—this week we’ll be watching Pepsico (PEP), Alcoa (AA), Apollo (APOL), Abbott Labs (ABT), Accenture (ACN), Genentech (DNA), Costco (COST), Yahoo (YHOO), Suntrust Banks (STI), Marriott International (MAR), and General Electric (GE). The economists won’t be putting out a lot of numbers that will impact market conditions, but we will get August reports on Wholesale Inventories, Consumer Credit, and the Balance of Trade, as well as September Export/Import Price numbers and the September Producer Price Index.
The astrological dynamics in the coming week should keep the markets hopping! The major factors at work are a Full Moon and a Venus/Uranus trine, which adds a decidedly upbeat tone to traders’ expectations. The week begins with a heliocentric Venus/Neptune square as well, however, which suggests a little bit of apprehension within the positive halo. This is also a week of planets changing signs—Mercury enters Libra on Monday, heliocentric Mars moves into Aries on Tuesday, and Venus enters Scorpio on Thursday. This kind of action often indicates market turning points, so the positive mood on Wall Street may not last through the week—we are still looking for an additional move downward in stocks, and it may not take more than one or two earnings disappointments to push things in that direction. It will be hard to tell which direction the market is really going at the first of the week, however—on Monday we’re looking for lighter than normal trading volume, with the Yom Kippur holiday keeping many active traders on the sidelines. The trading day on Monday also gets underway with the Moon Void-of-Course, and a Void-of-Course Moon throughout the trading day on Wednesday will definitely be keeping us away from the market action.
Have a great week!


GLOBAL EQUITIES MARKETS LAST WEEK

Stock markets around the world turned positive last week, as the dollar declined against the euro for the sixth consecutive week. Japanese Finance Minister Sadakazu Tanigaki is promising “decisive action” to bring the yen back down; the Japanese currency has gained 7 percent against the dollar so far this year. Along with his announcement, the Nikkei brought its steep decline to a halt, after a loss of 9% during the past two weeks.

Dow Jones Industrial Average – up 2.78%
Dow Jones Transportation Average – up 4.54%
Dow Jones Utilities Average – up 1.68%
S& P 500 – up 3.31%
NASDAQ Composite Index – up 4.94%
Russell 2000 – up 5.56%
London FTSE-100 – up 2.81%
Paris CAC-40 – up 2.47%
Frankfurt DAX – up 2.83%
Sydney All Ordinaries – up 0.94%
Tokyo Nikkei – up 3.70%
Hong Kong Hang Seng Index – up 2.71%
Singapore Straits Times Index – up 2.63%


FINANCIAL CYCLES MODEL PORTFOLIO


POSITIONS CLOSED DURING THE PREVIOUS WEEK: CPWM, HELE, QTRN, CACH.

We closed four portfolio positions during the previous week, with three winners and one loser producing a net profit of $215.00.

On September 29 we sold 300 shares of Cost Plus Inc. (CPWM) at 38.35, taking a profit of $30.00 (a 0.26% gain in 10 trading days).

On September 29 we sold 400 shares of Helen of Troy, Ltd. (HELE) at 23.15, taking a loss of $640.00 (a 6.46% loss in 5 trading days).

On September 29 we took 600 shares of Quintiles Transnational (QTRN) off the portfolio books after a stockholder vote to accept a buyout of the stock at $14.50 a share. The buyout gives us a profit of $60.00 (a 0.69% gain in 5 trading days).

On September 30 we bought to cover 500 shares of Cache Inc. (CACH) at 19.65, taking a profit of $765.00 (a 7.22% profit in 18 trading days).

*****


POSITIONS ADDED TO THE PORTFOLIO DURING THE PREVIOUS WEEK: RSLN, IVGN, EGOV.

We bought 500 shares of Roslyn Bancorp (RSLN) at 23.50 on 09/30/03, with an initial stop set at 22.39.

We sold short 200 shares of Invitrogen Corporation (IVGN) at 58.50 on 10/02/03, with an initial buy stop set at 63.00.

We bought 1,000 shares of N I C Inc. (EGOV) at 4.79 on 10/02/03, with an initial stop set at 4.31.

*****


YEAR-IN-REVIEW MODEL PORTFOLIO ACTIVITY

Since the beginning of the year we have had a total of 128 completed trades, with 75 winners and 53 losers bringing us a total net profit of $43,940.00. The largest profit for a single trade has been $9,240.00; the largest single-trade loss has been $900.00; the average profit per trade has been $343.28. The mean duration of our trades has been 10.8 trading days.

During 2002 we had a total of 195 completed trades, with 119 winners, 74 losers, and 2 break-even trades bringing us a total net profit of $50,956.00. The largest profit for a single trade was $5,100.00; the largest single-trade loss was $1,055.00; the average profit per trade was $261.31. The mean duration of our trades was 12.7 trading days.

*****


CURRENT POSITIONS IN THE MODEL PORTFOLIO

Invitrogen Corporation (IVGN) – sold short 200 shares at 58.50 on 10/02/03; currently 58.87. Lower buy stop to 61.07.

N I C Inc. (EGOV) – bought 1,000 shares at 4.79 on 10/02/03; currently 4.75. Raise stop to 4.49.

Roslyn Bancorp (RSLN) – bought 500 shares at 23.50 on 09/30/03; currently 24.15. Raise stop to 23.25.

Stratasys Inc. (SSYS) – sold short 200 shares at 52.25 on 09/22/03; currently 45.40. Lower buy stop to 48.00.

Tuesday Morning Corporation (TUES) – sold short 300 shares at 30.95 on 09/22/03; currently 29.51. Lower buy stop to 30.00.

*****


STRONGEST MARKET SECTORS LAST WEEK

Wholesale Basic Materials, Memory Chips, Steel & Iron, Residential Construction, Staffing & Outsourcing Services.

*****


WEAKEST MARKET SECTORS LAST WEEK

Long Distance Carriers, Silver, General Contractors, Waste Management, Cement.

*****


KEY ASTROLOGICAL EVENTS THIS WEEK

October 5
Mercury contraparallel Zeus 00:08 EDT
Mercury sesquiquadrate Neptune in right ascension 01:13 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury square Poseidon 01:34 EDT
Heliocentric Venus square Neptune 01:47 EDT
Venus trine Hades in right ascension 03:31 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury in 24th harmonic to Vulcanus 08:15 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury semisquare Hades 08:24 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury sextile Zeus 08:42 EDT
Venus parallel Apollon 10:48 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury trine Cupido 12:20 EDT
Heliocentric Earth sextile Neptune 15:46 EDT
Heliocentric Venus parallel Pluto 17:32 EDT

October 6
Sun square Chiron 02:17 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury opposition Neptune 04:59 EDT
Venus contraparallel Jupiter 06:34 EDT
Heliocentric Earth trine Mercury 07:50 EDT
Void-of-Course Moon 09:06 – 10:20 EDT
Sun square Saturn 09:39 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury parallel Kronos 10:38 EDT
Mercury quincunx Uranus 11:55 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury square Venus 16:10 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury sesquiquadrate Mars 16:17 EDT
Heliocentric Venus sesquiquadrate Mars 16:47 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury semisquare Kronos 20:13 EDT
Venus square Vulcanus in right ascension 20:25 EDT
Mercury enters Libra 21:25 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury parallel Saturn 23:58 EDT

October 7
Heliocentric Mars enters Aries 02:18 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury quincunx Chiron 03:37 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury in 24th harmonic to Jupiter 04:34 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury parallel Hades 05:00 EDT
Heliocentric Venus sesquiquadrate Kronos 05:47 EDT
Mercury quincunx Mars 08:59 EDT
Mercury square Kronos in right ascension 10:38 EDT
Venus semisquare Jupiter in right ascension 10:54 EDT
Mercury quincunx Uranus in right ascension 11:55 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury trine Pluto 12:53 EDT
Sun trine Neptune in right ascension 13:32 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury parallel Vulcanus 13:41 EDT
Sun square Chiron in right ascension 17:12 EDT
Mercury square Kronos 18:20 EDT
Void-of-Course Moon begins 19:30 EDT
Sun sesquiquadrate Uranus 19:53 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury semisquare Saturn 23:12 EDT

October 8
Heliocentric Mercury square Admetos 00:38 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury contraparallel Cupido 01:07 EDT
Heliocentric Mars square Kronos 02:05 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury sextile Hades 02:53 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury semisquare Zeus 03:13 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury sextile Apollon 05:05 EDT
Heliocentric Venus sextile Chiron 07:05 EDT
Mercury in 24th harmonic to Poseidon in right ascension 11:14 EDT
Heliocentric Venus parallel Chiron 15:48 EDT
Sun square Saturn in right ascension 18:20 EDT
Void-of-Course Moon ends 19:07 EDT

October 9
Venus trine Uranus 00:47 EDT
Mercury quincunx Mars in right ascension 07:40 EDT
Mercury sesquiquadrate North Lunar Node in right ascension 09:47 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury parallel Admetos 09:59 EDT
Mercury sesquiquadrate Admetos in right ascension 13:43 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury enters Virgo 14:46 EDT
Venus enters Scorpio 14:55 EDT
Sun sesquiquadrate Mars 17:19 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury sextile Kronos 17:49 EDT
Heliocentric Earth sesquiquadrate Mercury 21:16 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury opposition Uranus 21:19 EDT
Heliocentric Earth semisquare Uranus 21:29 EDT
Mercury sextile Cupido in right ascension 23:21 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury quincunx Mars 23:36 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury contraparallel Neptune 23:51 EDT

October 10
Heliocentric Mercury sesquiquadrate Chiron 02:15 EDT
Mars square 11/23/2003 Solar Eclipse Point 03:13 EDT
Full Moon 03:27 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury conjunct Jupiter 04:06 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury contraparallel Venus 08:34 EDT
Heliocentric Venus in 24th harmonic to Poseidon 11:12 EDT
Venus trine Mars 16:32 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury sextile Poseidon 19:17 EDT
Venus trine Kronos 19:23 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury contraparallel Chiron 19:26 EDT
Mercury conjunct Zeus in right ascension 20:38 EDT
Jupiter square 05/31/2003 Solar Eclipse Point 22:11 EDT
Heliocentric Earth square Chiron 22:25 EDT
Mercury sesquiquadrate North Lunar Node 23:21 EDT

October 11
Heliocentric Mercury sextile Saturn 00:00 EDT
Heliocentric Earth in 24th harmonic to Mars 00:47 EDT
Heliocentric Venus sesquiquadrate Saturn 01:14 EDT
Mercury sextile Cupido 02:31 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury semisquare Vulcanus 03:19 EDT
Mercury sesquiquadrate Admetos 03:48 EDT
Heliocentric Venus opposition Admetos 04:18 EDT
Void-of-Course Moon 04:31 – 06:05 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury semisquare Apollon 05:56 EDT
Sun sextile Pluto 07:33 EDT
Mercury conjunct Zeus 07:36 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury square Cupido 08:16 EDT
Heliocentric Earth sesquiquadrate Jupiter 09:26 EDT
Jupiter contraparallel Apollon 09:51 EDT
Mercury in 24th harmonic to Apollon 09:53 EDT
Heliocentric Venus trine Vulcanus 11:02 EDT
Heliocentric Venus quincunx Hades 11:43 EDT
Mars trine Kronos 12:14 EDT
Heliocentric Venus semisquare Zeus 12:44 EDT
Sun sesquiquadrate Uranus in right ascension 14:14 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury contraparallel Pluto 14:35
Uranus trine Kronos in right ascension 14:44 EDT
Heliocentric Mars quincunx Jupiter 15:13 EDT
Heliocentric Venus parallel Neptune 18:18 EDT
Venus semisquare Pluto 19:59 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury contraparallel Poseidon 21:31 EDT

October 12
Heliocentric Venus in 24th harmonic to Cupido 01:48 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury quincunx Neptune 04:19 EDT
Venus trine Uranus in right ascension 12:56 EDT
Venus trine Kronos in right ascension 13:16 EDT
Sun sextile Pluto in right ascension 14:17 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury contraparallel Uranus 19:02 EDT
Mercury trine Neptune 21:53 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury parallel Jupiter 22:44 EDT
Heliocentric Earth trine Pluto 23:31 EDT

*****


STOCKS TO WATCH: ABMD, CCRT, LIFC, ORLY, SNIC, UPFC.

Abiomed Inc. (ABMD)
First Trade Date: 08/31/1992;09:30 a.m.
Trading Strategy: With Jupiter conjunct its First-Trade Sun and Saturn moving toward the First-Trade MC, this is a stock that easily commands our attention. It’s currently in a trading range defined by heliocentric Uranus; heliocentric 24th-harmonic Kronos and Hades are also significant in defining support and resistance. With transiting Uranus currently semisquare First-Trade Uranus for this stock, we expect resistance to hold at about 9.15. Our plan is to sell ABMD short this week, setting our initial buy stop at 9.61.

Compucredit Corporation (CCRT)
First Trade Date: 03/23/1999; 09:30 a.m.
Trading Strategy: With transiting Kronos conjunct the CCRT First-Trade Ascendant and transiting Jupiter getting ready to cross the First-Trade IC followed by Mars passing over the First-Trade Midheaven, this stock is ready for some positive action! The planetary energies behind the historical price movements for this stock are somewhat complex, with several Transneptunian planets actively involved. We’ve found that 24th harmonic heliocentric lines for Mars, Chiron, Cupido, Kronos and Poseidon define the trading boundaries pretty well. We are looking for CCRT to close above the Chiron/Poseidon resistance zone between 19.11 and 19.17 to confirm a breakout; when it does, we will add a long position to the Model Portfolio, setting our initial stop at 16.70.

Lifecell Corporation (LIFC)
First Trade Date: 02/28/1992; 9:30 a.m.
Trading Strategy: LIFC is a low-priced stock with high relative strength. Its price history demonstrates the potency of Jupiter and Pluto in its First-Trade horoscope; geocentric price lines corresponding to the First-Trade planetary positions, with Jupiter at 15.975 and Pluto at 23.3, present a good framework for understanding the trading action, with a Saturn line at 34.27 defining key areas of support and resistance. If this stock were to close above the next intersection of Jupiter and Pluto at 7.12, Lifecell could get quite lively! Unless that happens, however, this stock is on our list of candidates for a possible short position—Jupiter’s current transit to the First-Trade Sun/Jupiter opposition won’t last long, and Saturn is inexorably working its way toward the First-Trade IC. If we don’t get a breakout above 7.12 by the end of this week, we will sell LIFC short, setting our initial buy stop at 7.41. If the breakout comes, however, we will add a long position, with an initial stop at 6.10.

O’Reilly Automotive Inc. (ORLY)
First Trade Date: 04/23/1993; 09:30 a.m.
Trading Strategy: Just one planet is in play with ORLY at the present time—Jupiter. Jupiter is conjunct the First-Trade IC. In addition, since August 19, this stock has been moving in a trading range precisely defined by heliocentric Jupiter, except for one failed attempt at a breakout in late September. ORLY has just closed above this Jupiter zone again, so if we get two more closes above the current 24th-harmonic Jupiter line, we will feel confirmed in adding a long position to the Model Portfolio. We will set our initial stop at 36.50.

Sonic Solutions (SNIC)
First Trade Date: 02/10/1994; 09:30 a.m.
Trading Strategy: SNIC began trading at a New Moon, and its price action has been neatly defined by a 24th harmonic heliocentric Sun/Earth line and a 1st harmonic geocentric Moon line. Last week we noted that this stock had slipped below a Sun line trading channel that had provided support since the end of June, and with Saturn approaching its First-Trade IC we were looking for it to enter a period of potential price declines that could endure for several months as Saturn slows down for its retrograde station on October 25. We were ready to sell this stock short near the end of the trading week, but SNIC gapped up to 16.95 on Friday’s open, convincingly demonstrating that it would not be confined by the Sun/Earth line at 15.35, but instead has a short-term target of 19.95. With Neptune currently conjunct the SNIC First-Trade Mars and Uranus square the First-Trade North Lunar Node, followed by Mars conjoining First-Trade Saturn and Chiron crossing the First-Trade Midheaven, it looks like the current Saturn transit will simply help SNIC establish a solid base. We are thus reversing our strategy, and will be adding a long position to the Model Portfolio early this week, setting our initial stop at 16.50.

United PanAm Financial Corporation (UPFC)
First Trade Date: 04/24/1998; 09:30 a.m.
Trading Strategy: This is a stock that responds well to the classical astrological rulers of market action, Jupiter and Saturn. Heliocentric Jupiter clearly defined support on September 19 at 15.13; heliocentric Saturn is currently providing resistance at 19.25. With transiting Jupiter currently crossing the First-Trade IC, we expect the positive price action for this stock to continue through most of this week. After that, however, Jupiter’s influence should weaken considerably, at least until it opposes the UPFC First-Trade during its transiting station early next year. We thus plan to sell UPFC short this week, setting our initial buy stop at 20.05.


FINANCIAL CYCLES (ISSN 1055-8527) is published by Taylor-Bost Consulting and edited by Tim Bost at Post Office Box 1657, Sarasota, FL 34230-1657 USA. Phone: 941-953-3545. Fax: 941-953-3732. Email: timbost@pipeline.com. Entire contents copyright 2003 Timothy L. Bost. No portion of this Weekly Email Update or its printed version may be reproduced without the publisher's written permission. Subscriptions to FINANCIAL CYCLES are $39.00 per month for weekly updates by email or fax, payable by monthly billing to a major credit card. Advance payment options (by credit card, check, or money order) are $228 for 6 months, $432 for 1 year or $815 for two years. All subscriptions are payable in US funds only— Visa, MasterCard, American Express, Diners Club, and Discover/Novus accepted; please make checks or money orders payable to Taylor-Bost.

By providing a source of independent market analysis, the purpose of FINANCIAL CYCLES is to foster the growth of person-centered business and investment astrology; to enhance the development and dissemination of financial literacy and prosperity consciousness; and to explore the use of technical analysis and financial astrology in promoting an esoteric spiritual understanding of economic trends, geocosmic cycles, geopolitical events, and market movements. FINANCIAL CYCLES is a general interest publication which is prepared from astrological information, news reports, cycle projections, and market observations which are believed to be accurate and reliable, but which cannot be guaranteed. Portfolio and trading reports in this publication do not include taxes and transaction fees, which should be taken into consideration by prospective traders and investors. Even with accurate information, past performance is no guarantee of future results. Speculation in securities and commodities involves considerable financial risk, and readers who plan to invest or speculate in securities or commodities mentioned in FINANCIAL CYCLES have the complete responsibility for making themselves fully aware of all the risks involved before they invest. The editor may or may not have positions in the securities and commodities discussed in this newsletter, and the information in FINANCIAL CYCLES should in no way be understood or construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any products or securities, nor should the material published in this newsletter be considered buy/sell advice.

*****

posted by Tim Bost @ 10/05/2003 09:40:40 PM