FINANCIAL CYCLES WEEKLY UPDATE #0339 – September 28 – October 4, 2003 with TIM BOST

COMMENT: It has been a fairly turbulent week, both in and out of the markets. On Friday, just at moonrise, an enormous earthquake struck Japan. Measuring 8.0 on the Richter scale, it was one of the most powerful quakes in decades. Two days later the worst power blackout in Italy since World War II impacted virtually the entire country. Hot on the heels of the resignation of embattled New York Stock Exchange Chairman Richard Grasso, several board members of the NYSE announced that they were quitting, too, leaving many pundits worried about the future direction of the venerable institution. Huge demonstrations took place in England, France, Belgium, Austria, Greece, Poland, Turkey and Lebanon, with thousands of people taking to the streets to protest the U.S. occupation of Iraq. The largest crowd was in London, where more than 20,000 people gathered in opposition to Britain’s support of the American military action.
OPEC made a surprise announcement that it was cutting output quotas by 3.5%, a move which brought up the notion that increased output from Iraq could result in lower oil prices, especially if Russia opens up with more exports. The news certainly didn’t do anything to bring current oil prices up, but did help push gold prices to a seven-year high. Stock prices sank lower, with the Dow Industrials losing more than 330 points for the week. As we warned our readers last week, “caution is still very much in order in the stock market now.”
The market volatility, in combination with our conservative stop loss orders, took us out of a number of positions in the Model Portfolio. While we ended the week with more losing trades than winners, our money management strategies got us out of the losing positions quickly enough to result in a net profit for the week as a whole. We’re expecting the corrective action to continue this week, bringing prices lower for the week as a whole. The real news, however, should be the amount of volatility in the markets—watch for some wild swings ahead!


THE WEEK AHEAD

The Third Quarter ends this week, which means that we can expect a lot of portfolio shuffling as institutional investors and fund managers reevaluate their positions. That should add to trading volume and overall market volatility, which increases opportunities for short-term traders.
It will be a light week for earnings reports. The most significant ones we will be tracking are Walgreen (WAG), Pepsi Bottling (PBG), and Family Dollar Stores (FDO). There’s a fairly busy economic calendar, however. We will get reports on August Personal Income, Personal Spending, Construction Spending, and Factory Orders, on September Auto Sales, and on September Unemployment, Nonfarm Payrolls, Average Workweek, and Hourly Earnings. In addition, we should get the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Report, the Chicago PMI Report, and the ISM Manufacturing and Services Reports. With both Mercury and Mars back in direct motion, perhaps these economic projections will be a bit more intelligible than is sometimes the case, and with Venus in Libra there could even be some favorable news. The odds are, however, that there won’t be any big surprises in store, so all of the economic pronouncements may have little real impact on the stock market.
The coming week should bring a sense of relief after all the major, high-stress astrological dynamics we have seen during the past month or so. By comparison, there’s not much going on right now. That doesn’t mean that things will be entirely quiet, however. With the Moon at perigee, there’s plenty of emotional energy available to drive market action. On Tuesday Mars will trigger the antiscion of a solar eclipse coming up next spring; sometimes eclipses start acting up well before the actual date that they occur, so look for news that could impact stock prices as the month draws to a close. We also have a Venus/Pluto sextile in play (in celestial longitude on Monday and in right ascension on Tuesday), which will tend to emphasize personal/public contrasts in economic issues, as in “There’s a lot of money changing hands out there, so how come I’m not getting my share?” The Kronos station on Wednesday emphasizes legal and leadership issues, with possible challenges to bureaucratic legitimacy in the works. Kronos is also connected with things that happen at great heights, so tall buildings, mountaintops, and air travel (as well as high stock prices!) may also be in the news. With Venus conjoining Apollon at the end of the trading day on Friday, we’re likely to see an optimistic pop in stock prices as we close out the trading week.
It all brings us plenty of opportunities as astute traders, if we don’t get too caught up in our opinions or decide to be right instead of being flexible. There should be enough volatility to open up some very profitable possibilities. Have a great week!


GLOBAL EQUITIES MARKETS LAST WEEK

Stocks advanced last week—but only in the Pacific, where the Hang Seng and Singapore Straits Times indices showed considerable strength. Everywhere else, stocks turned down sharply. As we noted in our last issue, “we are inclined to view last week’s rallies as just the precursor to a major market correction.” That certainly seems to be what’s in the works at this point, especially with the Mercury retrograde upside counter-trend out of the way.

Dow Jones Industrial Average – down 3.44%
Dow Jones Transportation Average – down 4.68%
Dow Jones Utilities Average – down 0.45%
S& P 500 – down 3.81%
NASDAQ Composite Index – down 5.96%
Russell 2000 – down 6.71%
London FTSE-100 – down 2.35%
Paris CAC-40 – down 4.65%
Frankfurt DAX – down 7.09%
Sydney All Ordinaries – down 1.48%
Tokyo Nikkei – down 5.67%
Hong Kong Hang Seng Index – up 2.83%
Singapore Straits Times Index – up 2.37%


FINANCIAL CYCLES MODEL PORTFOLIO


POSITIONS CLOSED DURING THE PREVIOUS WEEK: CY, PSSI, SHPGY, SGMA, JBHT, TECH, TIF.

We closed seven portfolio positions during the previous week, with two winners and five losers producing a net profit of $493.00.

On September 22 we bought to cover 500 shares of Cypress Semiconductor (CY) at 18.75, taking a loss of $175.00 (a 1.90% loss in 2 trading days).

On September 23 we sold 1,000 shares of PSS World Medical, Inc. (PSSI) at 9.25, taking a loss of $400.00 (a 4.15% loss in 6 trading days).

On September 23 we bought to cover 500 shares of Shire Pharmaceuticals Group ADS (SHPGY) at 23.02, taking a loss of $10.00 (a 0.09% loss in 8 trading days).

On September 23 we bought to cover 500 shares of Sigmatron International (SGMA) at 25.30, taking a profit of $25.00 (a 0.21% gain in 6 trading days).

On September 26 we sold 600 shares of J. B. Hunt Transportation Services Inc. (JBHT) at 26.00, taking a profit of $1,650.00 (an 11.83% gain in 28 trading days).

On September 26 we sold 300 shares of Techne Corporation (TECH) at 32.65, taking a loss of $255.00 (a 2.54% loss in 9 trading days).

On September 26 we sold 200 shares of Tiffany & Company (TIF) at 37.54, taking a loss of $342.00 (a 4.36% loss in 4 trading days).

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POSITIONS ADDED TO THE PORTFOLIO DURING THE PREVIOUS WEEK: HELE, QTRN, SSYS, TIF, TUES.

We bought 400 shares of Helen of Troy, Ltd. (HELE) at 24.75 on 09/22/03, with an initial stop set at 22.50.

We bought 600 shares of Quintiles Transnational (QTRN) at 14.40 on 09/22/03, with an initial stop set at 13.50.

We sold short 200 shares of Stratasys Inc. (SSYS) at 52.25 on 09/22/03, with an initial buy stop set at 55.00.

We bought 200 shares of Tiffany & Company (TIF) at $39.25 on 09/22/03, with an initial stop set at 37.54.

We sold short 300 shares of Tuesday Morning Corporation (TUES) at 30.95 on 09/22/03, with an initial buy stop set at 35.15.

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YEAR-IN-REVIEW MODEL PORTFOLIO ACTIVITY

Since the beginning of the year we have had a total of 124 completed trades, with 72 winners and 52 losers bringing us a total net profit of $43,725.00. The largest profit for a single trade has been $9,240.00; the largest single-trade loss has been $900.00; the average profit per trade has been $352.62. The mean duration of our trades has been 10.8 trading days.

During 2002 we had a total of 195 completed trades, with 119 winners, 74 losers, and 2 break-even trades bringing us a total net profit of $50,956.00. The largest profit for a single trade was $5,100.00; the largest single-trade loss was $1,055.00; the average profit per trade was $261.31. The mean duration of our trades was 12.7 trading days.

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CURRENT POSITIONS IN THE MODEL PORTFOLIO

Cache Inc. (CACH) – sold short 500 shares at 21.18 on 09/04/04; currently 19.20. Lower buy stop to 19.65.

Cost Plus Inc. (CPWM) – bought 300 shares at 38.25 on 09/15/03; currently 38.38. Raise stop to 38.35.

Helen of Troy, Ltd. (HELE) – bought 400 shares at 24.75 on 09/22/03; currently 24.56. Raise stop to 23.15.

Quintiles Transnational (QTRN) – bought 600 shares at 14.40 on 09/22/03; currently 14.49. Raise stop to 14.39.

Stratasys Inc. (SSYS) – sold short 200 shares at 52.25 on 09/22/03; currently 42.96. Lower buy stop to 50.50.

Tuesday Morning Corporation (TUES) – sold short 300 shares at 30.95 on 09/22/03; currently 28.61. Lower buy stop to 31.75.

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STRONGEST MARKET SECTORS LAST WEEK

Sporting Activities, Lodging, Sporting Goods Stores, Meat Products, Foreign Utilities.

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WEAKEST MARKET SECTORS LAST WEEK

Silver, Catalog & Mail Order Houses, Healthcare Information Services, Photographic Equipment & Supplies, Information & Delivery Service.

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KEY ASTROLOGICAL EVENTS THIS WEEK

September 28
Heliocentric Mercury trine Apollon 00:07 EDT
Heliocentric Venus trine Uranus 06:03 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury square Mars 06:10 EDT
Mercury square Pluto 12:29 EDT
Lunar Perigee 01:35 EDT
Heliocentric Venus sextile Jupiter 15:15 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury sesquiquadrate Neptune 16:18 EDT
Sun sesquiquadrate Admetos in right ascension 21:41 EDT

September 29
Sun sesquiquadrate North Lunar Node in right ascension 03:05 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury enters Cancer 03:19 EDT
Heliocentric Earth quincunx Poseidon 03:43 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury conjunct Kronos 05:37 EDT
Sun sextile Cupido in right ascension 06:58 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury trine Uranus 07:59 EDT
Mercury trine Admetos in right ascension 09:31 EDT
Mercury contraparallel Venus 09:33 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury sextile Jupiter 10:31 EDT
Jupiter square Cupido 11:03 EDT
Mercury trine North Lunar Node in right ascension 13:06
Venus sextile Pluto 13:52 EDT
Heliocentric Earth square Saturn 16:32 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury trine Venus 16:51 EDT
North Lunar Node quincunx Apollon 19:57 EDT
Void-of-Course Moon 20:08 – 20:57 EDT
Heliocentric Jupiter contraparallel Uranus 20:54 EDT
Venus sesquiquadrate Uranus in right ascension 21:46 EDT

September 30
Heliocentric Mercury trine Poseidon 01:23 EDT
Mercury in 24th harmonic to Apollon in right ascension 02:16 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury conjunct Saturn 03:28 EDT
Heliocentric Venus semisquare Pluto 04:18 EDT
Mars opposition 04/19/2004 Solar Eclipse Antiscion 05:14 EDT
Heliocentric Earth square Mercury 05:26 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury semisquare Admetos 05:45 EDT
Venus sextile Pluto in right ascension 05:52 EDT
Heliocentric Earth semisquare Admetos 07:28 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury in 24th harmonic to Vulcanus 07:28 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury in 24th harmonic to Hades 07:36 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury square Zeus 07:53 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury quincunx Cupido 11:09 EDT
Sun sextile Cupido 11:58 EDT
Heliocentric Mars parallel Zeus 17:00 EDT
Mercury semisquare Poseidon 19:00 EDT
Heliocentric Earth contraparallel Mars 19:30 EDT
Sun conjunct Zeus 20:53 EDT
Sun conjunct Zeus in right ascension 20:55 EDT
Heliocentric Earth opposition Zeus 21:01 EDT
Sun sesquiquadrate Admetos 21:02 EDT
Sun parallel Zeus 21:03 EDT
Heliocentric Earth contraparallel Zeus 21:11 EDT
Sun sesquiquadrate North Lunar Node 23:49 EDT

October 1
Sun in 24th harmonic to Apollon 01:47 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury quincunx Neptune 02:02 EDT
Heliocentric Venus conjunct Poseidon 02:05 EDT
Zeus sesquiquadrate Admetos 02:48 EDT
Heliocentric Venus trine Saturn 10:53 EDT
Venus square Hades in right ascension 14:41 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury in 24th harmonic to Kronos 15:38 EDT
Heliocentric Venus contraparallel Jupiter 16:22 EDT
Kronos retrograde station 16:52 EDT
Venus sesquiquadrate Mars in right ascension 17:13 EDT
Heliocentric Earth trine Cupido 17:50 EDT
Heliocentric Venus parallel Uranus 18:03 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury sesquiquadrate Uranus 18:10 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury semisquare Jupiter 21:27 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury opposition Chiron 21:47 EDT
Void-of-Course Moon 22:25 – 23:21 EDT
Venus in 24th harmonic to Poseidon 22:36 EDT

October 2
Heliocentric Venus sesquiquadrate Hades 02:18 EDT
Mercury trine Admetos 04:23 EDT
Mercury in 24th harmonic to Zeus 04:51 EDT
Mercury trine North Lunar Node 05:21 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury quincunx Pluto 06:18 EDT
Mercury in 24th harmonic to Jupiter 07:38 EDT
Heliocentric Venus in 24th harmonic to Apollon 09:33 EDT
Jupiter semisquare Apollon 10:41 EDT
Heliocentric Mars semisquare Neptune 12:40 EDT
North Lunar Node parallel Admetos 14:15 EDT
Mercury sextile Vulcanus 14:26 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury in 24th harmonic to Saturn 14:32 EDT
Venus quincunx Admetos in right ascension 15:05
North Lunar Node sesquiquadrate Zeus 15:36 EDT
Venus quincunx North Lunar Node 15:59 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury sextile Admetos16:35 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury conjunct Vulcanus 18:23 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury square Apollon 20:28 EDT
Mercury square Hades 20:44 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury sesquiquadrate Cupido 22:15 EDT
Mercury sextile Vulcanus in right ascension 23:55 EDT

October 3
Venus semisquare Cupido in right ascension 00:18 EDT
Venus semisquare Cupido 06:59 EDT
Heliocentric Jupiter sesquiquadrate Chiron 09:20 EDT
Sun contraparallel Mercury 09:50 EDT
Venus conjunct Apollon in right ascension 10:52 EDT
Venus quincunx Admetos 12:51 EDT
Venus quincunx North Lunar Node 12:52 EDT
North Lunar Node conjunct Admetos 13:36 EDT
Venus in 24th harmonic to Zeus 14:07 EDT
North Lunar Node conjunct Admetos in right ascension 14:38 EDT
Jupiter semisquare Vulcanus in right ascension 14:51 EDT
Neptune in 24th harmonic to Chiron in right ascension 15:19 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury trine Mars 16:44 EDT
Venus conjunct Apollon 17:48 EDT
Void-of-Course Moon begins 18:40 EDT
Venus semisquare Jupiter 23:18 EDT
Sun trine Neptune 23:21 EDT

October 4
Venus square Vulcanus 01:15 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury enters Leo 01:30 EDT
Heliocentric Earth quincunx Venus 03:36 EDT
Void-of-Course Moon ends 03:45 EDT
Mercury sesquiquadrate Neptune 03:48 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury quincunx Uranus 06:45 EDT
Venus trine Hades 08:50 EDT
Sun in 24th harmonic to Jupiter in right ascension 10:07 EDT
Sun in 24th harmonic to Mercury 11:07 EDT
Jupiter semisquare Vulcanus 11:42 EDT
Heliocentric Venus parallel Poseidon 17:30 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury sesquiquadrate Pluto 19:31 EDT

October 5
Mercury contraparallel Zeus 00:08 EDT
Mercury sesquiquadrate Neptune in right ascension 01:13 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury square Poseidon 01:34 EDT
Heliocentric Venus square Neptune 01:47 EDT
Venus trine Hades in right ascension 03:31 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury in 24th harmonic to Vulcanus 08:15 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury semisquare Hades 08:24 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury sextile Zeus 08:42 EDT
Venus parallel Apollon 10:48 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury trine Cupido 12:20 EDT
Heliocentric Earth sextile Neptune 15:46 EDT
Heliocentric Venus parallel Pluto 17:32 EDT

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STOCKS TO WATCH: CCRT, IVGN, EGOV, RSLN, SNIC.

Compucredit Corporation (CCRT)
First Trade Date: 03/23/1999; 09:30 a.m.
Trading Strategy: With transiting Kronos conjunct the CCRT First-Trade Ascendant and transiting Jupiter getting ready to cross the First-Trade IC followed by Mars passing over the First-Trade Midheaven, this stock is ready for some positive action! The planetary energies behind the historical price movements for this stock are somewhat complex, with several Transneptunian planets actively involved. We’ve found that 24th harmonic heliocentric lines for Mars, Chiron, Cupido, Kronos and Poseidon define the trading boundaries pretty well. CCRT will have to close above the Chiron/Poseidon resistance zone between 19.11 and 19.17 zone before it confirms a breakout; if it does that we will add a long position to the Model Portfolio, setting our initial stop at 16.70.

Invitrogen Corporation (IVGN)
First Trade Date: 02/26/1999; 09:30 a.m.
Trading Strategy: In spite of the possibility of a positive price pop around October 13 when transiting Venus conjoins the IVGN First-Trade Poseidon as Neptune squares First-Trade Mars, the overall outlook for this stock favors a short position. For much of the past year, key areas of support and resistance for IVGN have been defined by a geocentric Admetos line set for 38.5; that line successfully turned back the stock’s latest attempt at a rally about two weeks ago. Unless this stock puts in a couple of consecutive closes above the Admetos line at 59.15, we will be shorting it this week, with our initial buy stop at 63.00.

N I C Inc. (EGOV)
First Trade Date: 07/15/1999; 09:30 a.m.
Trading Strategy: We ordinarily shy away from extremely low-priced stocks, but in this particular case it looks like EGOV may be ready to break out of a three-year basing pattern! Jupiter, Cupido, and Pluto all figure prominently into the price structure of this stock; we’ve been looking at it with Jupiter and Pluto 24th harmonic heliocentric price lines, plus Pluto set for a geocentric planetary line at 24.8 and Cupido set for a geocentric planetary line at 24.13. Right now, with transiting Jupiter crossing the EGOV First-Trade Ascendant and transiting Mars moving toward the opposite First-Trade angle, there’s some solid energy on hand to push this stock higher. However, it will have to deal with Cupido at $5.40 and Jupiter at $5.59 before it can tangle with Pluto at $5.91. That kind of move is not at all certain, but if EGOV breaks out above that Pluto resistance it’s in for a tremendous move upward! We’re going to play that possibility by adding a long position to the Model Portfolio this week, setting our initial stop at 4.31.

Roslyn Bancorp (RSLN)
First Trade Date: 01/13/1997; 09:30 a.m.
Trading Strategy: The RSLN First-Trade horoscope features a precise Mars/Zeus conjunction, so it’s no wonder that its trading history has shown a great deal of volatility! Hades is the most angular planet in the chart, and that particular Transneptunian is also significant in understanding the dynamics at work behind this stock. We’ve found that 24th harmonic heliocentric planetary lines for Mars, Zeus and Hades help us see the trading range for RSLN, with an additional geocentric Zeus line at 18.29 (corresponding to the First-Trade position of Zeus at 02°57’ Libra) offering additional support and resistance. With transiting Pluto conjunct the First-Trade Midheaven and transiting Jupiter conjunct the First-Trade Descendant, it’s clear that this stock has enormous potential ahead. While the bias is toward the positive side, we can also expect some pretty wild price swings that could make it very challenging to trade. Even so, we plan to add a long position to the Model Portfolio this week, setting our initial stop at 22.39.

Sonic Solutions (SNIC)
First Trade Date: 02/10/1994; 09:30 a.m.
Trading Strategy: SNIC began trading at a New Moon, and its price action has been neatly defined by a 24th harmonic heliocentric Sun/Earth line and a 1st harmonic geocentric Moon line. This stock has just slipped below a Sun line trading channel that has provided support since the end of June, and with Saturn approaching its First-Trade IC it is entering a period of potential price declines that could endure for several months as Saturn slows down for its retrograde station on October 25. Our plan is to sell this stock short, setting our initial buy stop at 15.91.


FINANCIAL CYCLES (ISSN 1055-8527) is published by Taylor-Bost Consulting and edited by Tim Bost at Post Office Box 1657, Sarasota, FL 34230-1657 USA. Phone: 941-953-3545. Fax: 941-953-3732. Email: timbost@pipeline.com. Entire contents copyright 2003 Timothy L. Bost. No portion of this Weekly Email Update or its printed version may be reproduced without the publisher's written permission. Subscriptions to FINANCIAL CYCLES are $39.00 per month for weekly updates by email or fax, payable by monthly billing to a major credit card. Advance payment options (by credit card, check, or money order) are $228 for 6 months, $432 for 1 year or $815 for two years. All subscriptions are payable in US funds only— Visa, MasterCard, American Express, Diners Club, and Discover/Novus accepted; please make checks or money orders payable to Taylor-Bost.

By providing a source of independent market analysis, the purpose of FINANCIAL CYCLES is to foster the growth of person-centered business and investment astrology; to enhance the development and dissemination of financial literacy and prosperity consciousness; and to explore the use of technical analysis and financial astrology in promoting an esoteric spiritual understanding of economic trends, geocosmic cycles, geopolitical events, and market movements. FINANCIAL CYCLES is a general interest publication which is prepared from astrological information, news reports, cycle projections, and market observations which are believed to be accurate and reliable, but which cannot be guaranteed. Portfolio and trading reports in this publication do not include taxes and transaction fees, which should be taken into consideration by prospective traders and investors. Even with accurate information, past performance is no guarantee of future results. Speculation in securities and commodities involves considerable financial risk, and readers who plan to invest or speculate in securities or commodities mentioned in FINANCIAL CYCLES have the complete responsibility for making themselves fully aware of all the risks involved before they invest. The editor may or may not have positions in the securities and commodities discussed in this newsletter, and the information in FINANCIAL CYCLES should in no way be understood or construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any products or securities, nor should the material published in this newsletter be considered buy/sell advice.

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posted by Tim Bost @ 9/28/2003 08:57:23 PM