FINANCIAL CYCLES WEEKLY UPDATE #0338 -- September 21-27, 2003 with TIM BOST

COMMENT: "Most of the strongest astrological action comes toward the end of the week," we noted in last's week's letter, commenting that Thursday's direct station by Chiron and the heliocentric Jupiter/Uranus opposition "could bring big surprises," including "heavy trading volume and extra volatility" as well as "the possibility of major storm activity or explosions away from the trading floor" and "news impacting the London Stock Exchange, the Chicago Board of Trade, and currencies in particular, especially the Mexican Peso, the Canadian dollar, and the U.S. dollar."

Sure enough, the explosions can in all shapes and sizes. The pressure continued to mount until New York Stock Exchange Chairman Richard Grasso was forced to resign. President Bush announced that Saddam Hussein had nothing to do with the 9/11 terrorist attacks on the U.S., while Vice President Cheney claimed that the huge salary checks he continues to get from Halliburton don't have anything to do with his having a financial interest in the company or the no-bid contracts it is getting from the government. China exploded by telling the U.S. not to try to make it the scapegoat for America's current economic woes. The Philippines blew up in protest after a New York Times editorial criticized the Philippine president's lack of clarity about her reelection campaign. More bombs went off in Iraq and Afghanistan. Hurricane Isabel smashed into North Carolina and Virginia, leaving hundreds homeless and knocking out electric power for millions. An earthquake measuring 5.5 on the Richter scale shook Tokyo. Futures contracts for the Japanese Yen gapped upward, hitting their highest level in four months. The Canadian dollar broke out of a 2-week base to surge to its highest price level since July, while the U.S. Dollar Index dipped to its lowest level in two months.

And in the equities markets, stocks exploded, too. U.S. equities hit a new high for the year on Thursday, before dipping back on profit-taking on triple-witching Friday. The action is pulling fresh money in from the sidelines, with much of it going into high-tech issues. The danger, of course, is that in their newly-found enthusiasm, investors may forget to be cautious--and caution is still very much in order in the stock market now.


THE WEEK AHEAD

During the coming week we'll be looking for earnings reports from Autozone (AZO), Goldman Sachs (GS), Lehman Brothers (LEH), Morgan Stanley (MWD), Paychex (PAYX), Micron Technology (MU), Bed, Bath & Beyond (BBBY), Safeway (SWY) and Solectron (SLR).

On the economic front, we will get numbers for August New and Existing Home Sales, August Durable Goods Orders, and September Consumer Confidence (as presented in a revised report from the University of Michigan). We'll also get Second Quarter GDP figures.

With Mercury having returned to direct motion, we should gradually begin to experience greater ease in communications and greater clarity of thought. That should improve our chances of accurate market analysis! Mars is still retrograde through the end of the week, however, so we need to be careful about jumping onto bandwagons. All in all, this is a time that combines an urge for a fresh start with a good bit of uncomfortable hesitation. It's a dynamic that's especially reflected in the astrological configurations through the middle of the week--Tuesday brings the Fall Equinox, Wednesday is highlighted by the Hades retrograde station, and Thursday features the Saturn/Chiron opposition and the New Moon.

This is definitely not an easy time for the faint of heart or for those who are less than sure of themselves in a potentially turbulent market environment. But our experiences in the markets are always at least as much about what goes on inside our heads as they are about what happens in the trading pit, and in that sense the times ahead offer us some amazing opportunities for significant growth. All we have to do is be alert for profitable possibilities as we follow a course of action that preserves our capital while we stretch our understanding of who we are and what we can accomplish. That may be easier said than done, but we're sure to have some interesting insights along the way!

Have a great week!


GLOBAL EQUITIES MARKETS LAST WEEK

Stock markets around the world flip-flopped again last week, moving back into positive territory after a week of losses. In the U.S., stocks hit a new high for the year, while in Japan the Nikkei has moved to impressive new levels, especially considering how badly it performed earlier this year. The question is, can these levels be sustained? While some may see them as evidence of a new era dawning, we are inclined to view last week's rallies as just the precursor to a major market correction. It's important to read between the lines. London's FTSE-100 hit a new high for the year as well, but things were not quite as strong in Germany, where the DAX failed to set a new high, and in Australia, where the Sydney All Ordinaries have just put in a double top--a signal that there may be bearish action ahead.

Dow Jones Industrial Average -- up 1.83%
Dow Jones Transportation Average -- up 2.16%
Dow Jones Utilities Average -- up 1.79%
S& P 500 -- up 1.73%
NASDAQ Composite Index -- up 2.73%
Russell 2000 -- up 2.19%
London FTSE-100 -- up 0.45%
Paris CAC-40 -- up 1.54%
Frankfurt DAX -- up 2.01%
Sydney All Ordinaries -- up 0.88%
Tokyo Nikkei -- up 2.11%
Hong Kong Hang Seng Index -- up 0.78%
Singapore Straits Times Index -- up 0.35%


FINANCIAL CYCLES MODEL PORTFOLIO


POSITIONS CLOSED DURING THE PREVIOUS WEEK: JOSB, TLM, NKE.

We closed three portfolio positions during the previous week, with one winner and two losers producing a net loss of $418.00.

On September 15 we bought to cover 200 shares of Joseph A. Bank Clothiers Inc. (JOSB) at 44.75, taking a profit of $350.00 (a 3.76% gain in 10 trading days).

On September 17 we sold 200 shares of Talisman Energy (TLM) at 47.48, taking a loss of $154.00 (a 1.60% loss in 10 trading days).

On September 19 we bought to cover 200 shares of Nike Inc. Class B (NKE) at 60.32, taking a loss of $614.00 (a 5.36% loss in 8 trading days).

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POSITIONS ADDED TO THE PORTFOLIO DURING THE PREVIOUS WEEK: CPWM, PSSI, SGMA, TECH, CY.

We bought 300 shares of Cost Plus Inc. (CPWM) at 38.25 on 09/15/03, with an initial stop set at 35.00.

We bought 1,000 shares of PSS World Medical, Inc. (PSSI) at 9.65 on 09/15/03, with an initial stop set at 9.10.

We sold short 500 shares of Sigmatron International (SGMA) at 23.35 on 09/15/03, with an initial buy stop set at 26.45.

We bought 300 shares of Techne Corporation (TECH) at $33.50 on 09/15/03, with an initial stop set at 31.00.

We sold short 500 shares of Cypress Semiconductor (CY) at 18.40 on 09/18/03, with an initial buy stop set at 20.25.

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YEAR-IN-REVIEW MODEL PORTFOLIO ACTIVITY

Since the beginning of the year we have had a total of 117 completed trades, with 70 winners and 47 losers bringing us a total net profit of $43,232.00. The largest profit for a single trade has been $9,240.00; the largest single-trade loss has been $900.00; the average profit per trade has been $369.50. The mean duration of our trades has been 10.9 trading days.

During 2002 we had a total of 195 completed trades, with 119 winners, 74 losers, and 2 break-even trades bringing us a total net profit of $50,956.00. The largest profit for a single trade was $5,100.00; the largest single-trade loss was $1,055.00; the average profit per trade was $261.31. The mean duration of our trades was 12.7 trading days.

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CURRENT POSITIONS IN THE MODEL PORTFOLIO

Cache Inc. (CACH) -- sold short 500 shares at 21.18 on 09/04/04; currently 19.44. Lower buy stop to 20.41.

Cost Plus Inc. (CPWM) -- bought 300 shares at 38.25 on 09/15/03; currently 39.88. Raise stop to 37.75.

Cypress Semiconductor (CY) -- sold short 500 shares at 18.40 on 09/18/03; currently 18.35. Lower buy stop to 18.75.

J. B. Hunt Transportation Services Inc. (JBHT) -- bought 300 shares at 46.50 on 08/18/03; split 2-for-1 on 09/02/03; current position 600 shares at 27.10. Raise stop to 26.00.

PSS World Medical, Inc. (PSSI) -- bought 1,000 shares at 9.65 on 09/15/03; currently 9.56. Raise stop to 9.25.

Shire Pharmaceuticals Group ADS (SHPGY) -- sold short 500 shares at 23.00 on 09/11/03; currently 22.70. Lower buy stop to 23.02.

Sigmatron International (SGMA) -- sold short 500 shares at 23.35 on 09/15/03; currently 23.10. Lower buy stop to 25.30.

Techne Corporation (TECH) -- bought 300 shares at $33.50 on 09/15/03; currently 34.82. Raise stop to 32.65.


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STRONGEST MARKET SECTORS LAST WEEK

Data Storage Devices, Semiconductor Memory Chips, Printed Circuit Boards, Healthcare Information Services, Resorts & Casinos.

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WEAKEST MARKET SECTORS LAST WEEK

Housewares & Accessories, Aerospace & Defense, Major Integrated Oil & Gas, Marketing Services, Independent Oil & Gas.

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KEY ASTROLOGICAL EVENTS THIS WEEK

September 21
Saturn quincunx Neptune in right ascension 00:01 EDT
Jupiter sextile Poseidon 00:56 EDT
Venus sextile Cupido 02:04 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury contraparallel Pluto 02:57 EDT
Sun sesquiquadrate Neptune in right ascension 04:33 EDT
Void-of-Course Moon 06:21 -- 10:03 EDT
Heliocentric Venus quincunx Mars 08:04 EDT
Venus conjunct Zeus 08:19 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury square Neptune 09:57 EDT
Heliocentric Venus parallel Mars 12:32 EDT
Venus in 24th harmonic to Apollon 12:52 EDT
Venus sesquiquadrate Admetos 13:08 EDT
Mercury trine Chiron 14:59 EDT
Heliocentric Earth semisquare Mercury 15:18 EDT
Venus in 24th harmonic to Jupiter in right ascension 17:56 EDT
Heliocentric Venus in 24th harmonic to Poseidon 17:58 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury contraparallel Chiron 19:00 EDT
Venus sesquiquadrate North Lunar Node 23:16 EDT

September 22
Apollon quincunx Admetos 04:21 EDT
Mercury at 0 degrees latitude headed North 11:28 EDT
North Lunar Node sextile Vulcanus 13:36 EDT
Jupiter semisquare 05/31/2003 Solar Eclipse Antiscion 16:14 EDT

September 23
Sun quincunx Uranus 00:00 EDT
Sun enters Libra--Fall Equinox 06:46 EDT
Sun quincunx Mars 11:54 EDT
Venus parallel Zeus 13:28 EDT
Void-of-Course Moon 15:33 -- 16:04 EDT

September 24
Venus trine Neptune 01:03 EDT
Mars opposition 04/19/2004 Solar Eclipse Antiscion 02:23 EDT
Hades retrograde station 05:56 EDT
Sun square Kronos 19:03 EDT
Void-of-Course Moon begins 21:52 EDT

September 25
Sun square Kronos in right ascension 02:03 EDT
Venus square Saturn 11:20 EDT
Venus square Chiron 11:27 EDT
Sun quincunx Uranus in right ascension 12:58 EDT
Saturn opposition Chiron 14:43 EDT
Void-of-Course Moon ends 18:49 EDT
New Moon 23:09 EDT

September 26
Venus square Chiron in right ascension 08:11 EDT
Venus trine Neptune in right ascension 12:40 EDT
Sun in 24th harmonic to Poseidon in right ascension 17:19 EDT
Mars parallel Chiron 18:21 EDT
Mercury square Pluto in right ascension 21:07 EDT
Venus square Saturn in right ascension 21:59 EDT

September 27
Mars direct station 03:53 EDT
Venus sesquiquadrate Uranus 05:36 EDT
Venus sesquiquadrate Mars 15:51 EDT
Sun quincunx Mars in right ascension 16:34 EDT
Mercury semisquare Poseidon in right ascension 17:19 EDT
Void-of-Course Moon 19:10 -- 19:52 EDT

September 28
Mercury square Pluto 12:29 EDT
Lunar Perigee 01:35 EDT
Sun sesquiquadrate Admetos in right ascension 21:41 EDT

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STOCKS TO WATCH: HELE, QTRN, SSYS, TIF, TUES.

Helen of Troy, Ltd. (HELE)
First Trade Date: 07/06/1976; 10:00 a.m.
Trading Strategy: Jupiter is currently conjunct the HELE First-Trade Ascendant, but Saturn is getting ready to conjoin the First-Trade Sun. That could bring an end to this stock's current rally, but in the meantime HELE is picking up plenty of positive energy from Venus conjoining First-Trade Pluto, the First-Trade Mars/Neptune midpoint, and the First-Trade Uranus/Pluto midpoint. A 24 heliocentric Jupiter line neatly defines support and resistance for this stock, suggesting that a move to the 26.95-27.23 range is quite possible. Our plan is to add a long position in HELE to the Model Portfolio immediately, setting our initial stop at 22.50.

Quintiles Transnational (QTRN)
First Trade Date: 04/21/1994 09:30 a.m.
Trading Strategy: With Jupiter crossing the IC in the First-Trade horoscope, this stock will have to contend with some seriously bearish energy within the next couple of months. For the time being, however, with Venus in opposition to the First-Trade Mercury/Mars midpoint, we think the price rally has a good chance to keep going. Our plan is to add a long position to the Model Portfolio this week, setting our initial stop at 13.50.

Stratasys Inc. (SSYS)
First Trade Date: 10/21/1994; 09:30 a.m.
Trading Strategy: This stock is currently selling for roughly 12 times the price it was going for a year ago, with a geocentric Pluto line set for 13.37 marking significant signposts along the way. Jupiter is conjunct the First-Trade Midheaven, and the transiting Lunar Nodal Axis is activating the First-Trade Moon/Jupiter opposition as transiting Mercury squares the First-Trade Venus/Neptune midpoint. In our book this all adds up to a good reason to sell this stock short. We'll do that this week, setting our initial buy stop at 51.20.

Tiffany & Company (TIF)
First Trade Date: 05/05/1987; 09:30 a.m.
Trading Strategy: Tiffany broke resistance in the 39.54-39.56 area this past week, with two consecutive closes above 39.56 on Thursday and Friday. Since historic price movement for TIF has been defined by a 15.55 Venus line and a 15.18 Jupiter line, with a 28.17 Neptune line marking key areas of resistance, we consider this sufficient confirmation for us to add a long position in TIF to the Model Portfolio on Monday. We will set our initial stop at 37.54.

Tuesday Morning Corporation (TUES)
First Trade Date: 04/22/1999; 9:30 a.m.
Trading Strategy: We are anticipating a brief rally for this stock during the next week or so, prior to more negative energy taking over once transiting Jupiter leaves its current conjunction with the First-Trade IC. We will add a short position in TUES to the Model Portfolio this week, setting our initial buy stop at 35.15.



FINANCIAL CYCLES (ISSN 1055-8527) is published by Taylor-Bost Consulting and edited by Tim Bost at Post Office Box 1657, Sarasota, FL 34230-1657 USA. Phone: 941-953-3545. Fax: 941-953-3732. Email: timbost@pipeline.com. Entire contents copyright 2003 Timothy L. Bost. No portion of this Weekly Email Update or its printed version may be reproduced without the publisher's written permission. Subscriptions to FINANCIAL CYCLES are $39.00 per month for weekly updates by email or fax, payable by monthly billing to a major credit card. Advance payment options (by credit card, check, or money order) are $228 for 6 months, $432 for 1 year or $815 for two years. All subscriptions are payable in US funds only-- Visa, MasterCard, American Express, Diners Club, and Discover/Novus accepted; please make checks or money orders payable to Taylor-Bost.

By providing a source of independent market analysis, the purpose of FINANCIAL CYCLES is to foster the growth of person-centered business and investment astrology; to enhance the development and dissemination of financial literacy and prosperity consciousness; and to explore the use of technical analysis and financial astrology in promoting an esoteric spiritual understanding of economic trends, geocosmic cycles, geopolitical events, and market movements. FINANCIAL CYCLES is a general interest publication which is prepared from astrological information, news reports, cycle projections, and market observations which are believed to be accurate and reliable, but which cannot be guaranteed. Portfolio and trading reports in this publication do not include taxes and transaction fees, which should be taken into consideration by prospective traders and investors. Even with accurate information, past performance is no guarantee of future results. Speculation in securities and commodities involves considerable financial risk, and readers who plan to invest or speculate in securities or commodities mentioned in FINANCIAL CYCLES have the complete responsibility for making themselves fully aware of all the risks involved before they invest. The editor may or may not have positions in the securities and commodities discussed in this newsletter, and the information in FINANCIAL CYCLES should in no way be understood or construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any products or securities, nor should the material published in this newsletter be considered buy/sell advice.

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posted by Tim Bost @ 9/21/2003 11:26:00 PM