FINANCIAL CYCLES WEEKLY UPDATE #0337 -- September 14-20, 2003 with TIM BOST

COMMENT: In last week's issue we noted that "The week's hot spot definitely comes on Wednesday, with a Full Moon, a Venus/Hades square, a Sun/Pluto square, and triggers to both solar eclipses of 2002," and suggested that our readers "Look for major shakeups in and out of the markets then!"

The shakeups came. On Wednesday, the eve of the second anniversary of the 9/11 terrorist attacks, U.S. authorities warned the American people to be on the alert for more terrorist activities at home and abroad. On the same day, a new videotape of Osama Bin Laden was aired, providing a grim reminder that al-Qaida is still very much in business. And in Sweden, pro-euro Foreign Minister Anna Lindh was assassinated just two hours before the Full Moon when an unknown assailant stabbed her while she was shopping in a central Stockholm department store.

The astrological impact was felt in the markets, too. Major selling began on Wall Street on Wednesday, and although some market pundits blamed the decline on the new Bin Laden video, the failed attempts later in the week at getting the rally back into gear made it evident that the bears are once again growling at the stock market's door. The Dow Industrials closed down at week's end, as did virtually every other major index around the world. As we said last week, "from our perspective it looks like a major top is in," and the market action since then has certainly seemed to confirm that notion.

And in Sweden, despite impassioned pleas from Prime Minister Goran Persson, voters went to the polls to reject membership in the European Union and refused to adopt the euro. With Sweden joining Britain and Denmark as countries preferring to stay outside the euro zone, it will be much more difficult for the euro's supporters to strengthen the European Union as it works to add 10 new member countries during the coming year. But the Swedes clearly feel that they can do much better on their own--and with Sweden currently running a budget surplus, experiencing unemployment lower than the average in the euro zone, and projecting a growth rate more than double that of the EU, it's easy to see why they would be reluctant to give up the krona in favor of the euro. And while we remain bullish on the euro in comparison to the dollar, it's only fair to note that the economic situation in the U.S. is a little bit different than it is in Sweden--in the last couple of years the U.S. budget surplus has turned into the biggest budget deficit in history, while persistently rising unemployment has obliged the Bush administration's doublespeak experts to coin the phrase "jobless recovery" in an effort to put a rosier complexion on the country's current economic woes.

And what about the growth rate of the U.S. economy? Who knows what it really is? If you listen to the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, you can't help but be confused. The potential for obfuscation in the pronouncements of European central banker Wim Duisenberg and his successor, Jean-Claude Trichet, in their attempts to appeal to pan-European loyalty, pale by comparison to even the most mundane remarks from Alan Greenspan. Perhaps they could pick up a few pointers by sitting in on the meeting of the Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee this week. Or better yet, perhaps all three gentlemen could benefit the most from having some common sense pounded into them--maybe what they all need is a good Swedish massage!


THE WEEK AHEAD

Once again we have a light week ahead for earnings reports, with the most notable companies being General Mills (GIS), Kroger (KR), Lennar (LEN), Best Buy (BBY), Federal Express (FDX), Bear Stearns (BSC), Biomet (BMET), Cintas (CTAS), Carnival (CCL), ConAgra (CAG), Jabil Circuit (JBL) and Nike (NKE).

On the economic front, we will be looking for July Business Inventories, August Capacity Utilization and Industrial Production, the August Consumer Price Index, August Housing Starts and Building Permits, the Leading Indicators for August from the Conference Board, the August Treasury Budget, and the September Philadelphia Fed Report and Empire State Index. The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meets on Tuesday; if they do anything other than leave interest rates unchanged it will be a big surprise to the markets.

With Mercury and Mars still retrograde, we are likely to continue experiencing challenges this week in communications, transportation, and commerce. It's definitely an advantage to take enough time to approach others with extra patience and understanding; don't count on messages getting through on the first or second attempt, no matter what the context is.

Most of the strongest astrological action comes toward the end of the week. Chiron's direct station on Thursday, September 18 presents significant challenges, but also promises unusual benefits to those who take the challenges seriously. Watch for news impacting the London Stock Exchange, the Chicago Board of Trade, and currencies in particular, especially the Mexican Peso, the Canadian dollar, and the U.S. dollar. On Friday we get the heliocentric Jupiter/Uranus opposition, which could bring big surprises; look for heavy trading volume and extra volatility that day, along with the possibility of major storm activity or explosions away from the trading floor. Both the heliocentric Mars/Pluto square and the geocentric Mercury direct station come on September 20; there's likely to be a good bit of confrontational energy in the air, especially when a lack of clear communications is the issue. That's not to say that confrontation is appropriate--with Mars still retrograde, it's not a very good time to be drawing lines in the sand. Stay particularly alert over the weekend for news that could impact cattle futures and agricultural price trends in general.

Have a great week!


GLOBAL EQUITIES MARKETS LAST WEEK

While last week we were able to report that all of the world's stock markets had had moved into positive territory, the situation essentially reversed itself during our most recent reporting period. Among the indexes that we track, only the Dow Utilities, the Russell 2000, and the Nikkei were barely able to post weekly gains.

In some cases the losses that ended the week came only after the averages set new highs for the year; that's part of the incongruity brought about by the Jupiter/Uranus opposition accompanied by Mars and Mercury retrogrades.

Dow Jones Industrial Average -- down 0.33%
Dow Jones Transportation Average -- down 0.43%
Dow Jones Utilities Average -- up 0.90%
S& P 500 -- down 0.27%
NASDAQ Composite Index -- down 0.17%
Russell 2000 -- up 0.04%
London FTSE-100 -- down 0.46%
Paris CAC-40 -- down 2.07%
Frankfurt DAX -- down 2.76%
Sydney All Ordinaries -- down 0.77%
Tokyo Nikkei -- up 0.58%
Hong Kong Hang Seng Index -- down 2.57%
Singapore Straits Times Index -- down 2.07%


FINANCIAL CYCLES MODEL PORTFOLIO


POSITIONS CLOSED DURING THE PREVIOUS WEEK: TSCO, BRCM, KLAC, PIXR..

We closed four portfolio positions during the previous week, with two winners and two losers producing a net profit of $961.00.

On September 9 we sold 400 shares of Tractor Supply Company (TSCO) at 33.75, taking a profit of $400.00 (a 3.05% gain in 10 trading days).

On September 10 we sold 500 shares of Broadcom Corporation Class A (BRCM) at 6.15, taking a loss of $675.00 (a 4.91% loss in 5 trading days).

On September 10 we sold 200 shares of K L A Tencor Corporation (KLAC) at 56.06, taking a loss of $90.00 (a 0.80% loss in 5 trading days).

On September 10 we sold 200 shares of Pixar (PIXR) at 72.25, taking a profit of $1,326.00 (a 10.10% gain in 20 trading days).

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POSITIONS ADDED TO THE PORTFOLIO DURING THE PREVIOUS WEEK: NKE, SHPGY.

We sold short 200 shares of Nike Inc. Class B (NKE) at 57.25 on 09/08/03, with an initial buy stop set at 58.00.

We sold short 500 shares of Shire Pharmaceuticals Group ADS at 23.00 on 09/11/03, with an initial buy stop set at 25.09.

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YEAR-IN-REVIEW MODEL PORTFOLIO ACTIVITY

Since the beginning of the year we have had a total of 114 completed trades, with 69 winners and 45 losers bringing us a total net profit of $43,650.00. The largest profit for a single trade has been $9,240.00; the largest single-trade loss has been $900.00; the average profit per trade has been $382.89. The mean duration of our trades has been 10.9 trading days.

During 2002 we had a total of 195 completed trades, with 119 winners, 74 losers, and 2 break-even trades bringing us a total net profit of $50,956.00. The largest profit for a single trade was $5,100.00; the largest single-trade loss was $1,055.00; the average profit per trade was $261.31. The mean duration of our trades was 12.7 trading days.

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CURRENT POSITIONS IN THE MODEL PORTFOLIO

Cache Inc. (CACH) -- sold short 500 shares at 21.18 on 09/04/04; currently 20.27. Lower buy stop to 20.90.

J. B. Hunt Transportation Services Inc. (JBHT) -- bought 300 shares at 46.50 on 08/18/03; split 2-for-1 on 09/02/03; current position 600 shares at 26.19. Raise stop to 25.75.

Joseph A. Bank Clothiers Inc. (JOSB) -- sold short 200 shares at 46.50 on 8/29/03; currently 42.44. Lower buy stop to 44.75.

Nike Inc. Class B (NKE) -- sold short 200 shares at 57.25 on 09/08/03; currently 55.68. Lower buy stop to 57.50.

Shire Pharmaceuticals Group ADS -- sold short 500 shares at 23.00 on 09/11/03; currently 22.78. Lower buy stop to 23.35.

Talisman Energy (TLM) -- bought 200 shares at 48.25 on 09/03/03; currently 47.76. Raise stop to 47.48.

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STRONGEST MARKET SECTORS LAST WEEK

Aluminum, Drug Delivery, Education & Training Services, Confectioners, Diversified Foods.

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WEAKEST MARKET SECTORS LAST WEEK

Processing Systems & Products, Semiconductor Memory Chips, Printed Circuit Boards, Semiconductor Equipment & Materials, Semiconductor Integrated Circuits.

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KEY ASTROLOGICAL EVENTS THIS WEEK

September 14
Mars square 11/23/2003 Solar Eclipse Point 01:29 EDT
Heliocentric Earth parallel Mercury 02:22 EDT
Sun parallel Mercury 04:19 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury parallel Zeus 08:45 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury square Saturn 17:27 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury quincunx Poseidon 17:31 EDT
Mercury in 24th harmonic to Venus 22:37 EDT
Heliocentric Earth sextile Admetos 22:58 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury semisquare Admetos 22:58 EDT
Heliocentric Earth in 24th harmonic to Mercury 22:59 EDT
Heliocentric Mars in 24th harmonic to Uranus 23:44 EDT
Uranus retrograde enters Aquarius 23:48 EDT

September 15
Heliocentric Mercury opposition Zeus 01:36 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury parallel Venus 03:14 EDT
Heliocentric Saturn trine Poseidon 03:28 EDT
Mars square Cupido in right ascension 05:13 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury trine Cupido 05:35 EDT
Sun in 24th harmonic to Zeus 06:03 EDT
Sun square Hades in right ascension 09:57 EDT
Heliocentric Earth trine Vulcanus 10:04 EDT
Heliocentric Earth square Hades 10:22 EDT
Venus quincunx Uranus 11:37 EDT
Venus enters Libra 11:57 EDT
Sun trine Admetos 15:45 EDT
Heliocentric Earth parallel Zeus 16:21 EDT
Moon at 0 degrees latitude headed North 19:27
Heliocentric Mercury opposition Venus 19:30 EDT
Sun contraparallel Zeus 22:24 EDT
Heliocentric Earth quincunx Apollon 22:45 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury sextile Neptune 23:32 EDT
Saturn opposition Chiron in right ascension 23:56 EDT

September 16
Sun sextile Vulcanus 01:56 EDT
Heliocentric Mars sextile Chiron 03:55 EDT
Lunar apogee 05:16 EDT
Venus quincunx Mars 05:25 EDT
Heliocentric Venus trine Neptune 08:22 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury contraparallel Venus 09:48 EDT
Venus square Kronos in right ascension 10:39 EDT
Sun trine North Lunar Node 11:01 EDT
Void-of-Course Moon 11:25 -- 11:32 EDT
Sun square Hades 14:24 EDT
Heliocentric Earth contraparallel Mercury 15:35 EDT
Venus square Kronos 16:06 EDT
Jupiter in 24th harmonic to Zeus in right ascension 16:45 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury sesquiquadrate Jupiter 17:28 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury semisquare Uranus 18:18 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury contraparallel Zeus 19:09 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury square Chiron 21:40 EDT

September 17
Heliocentric Earth parallel Venus 01:38 EDT
Venus quincunx Uranus in right ascension 01:40 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury trine Pluto 08:34 EDT
Sun sextile Vulcanus in right ascension 11:45 EDT
Venus in 24th harmonic to Poseidon in right ascension 16:25 EDT
Venus at 0 degrees declination headed South 20:44 EDT
Heliocentric Venus parallel Zeus 21:03 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury square Vulcanus 22:21 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury sextile Hades 22:25 EDT

September 18
Heliocentric Mercury opposition Apollon 00:38 EDT
Chiron direct station 01:34 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury contraparallel Mars 02:12 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury sesquiquadrate Cupido 02:27 EDT
Heliocentric Venus semisquare Jupiter 20:15 EDT
Mercury trine Chiron 20:23 EDT
Heliocentric Venus sesquiquadrate Uranus 20:54 EDT
Sun sesquiquadrate Neptune 21:20 EDT
Void-of-Course Moon begins 23:50 EDT

September 19
Void-of-Course Moon ends 00:07 EDT
Venus quincunx Mars in right ascension 02:53 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury contraparallel Apollon 03:03 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury enters Taurus 07:44 EDT
Heliocentric Venus square Chiron 08:24 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury sextile Kronos 10:15 EDT
North Lunar Node quincunx Apollon in right ascension 10:34 EDT
Heliocentric Jupiter opposition Uranus 11:43 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury sextile Uranus 12:31 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury trine Jupiter 12:32 EDT
Venus sesquiquadrate Admetos in right ascension 13:25 EDT
Venus sextile Cupido in right ascension 16:30 EDT

September 20
Heliocentric Mars square Pluto 00:02 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury sesquiquadrate Pluto 01:38 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury semisquare Mars 01:50 EDT
Venus sesquiquadrate North Lunar Node in right ascension 02:39 EDT
Mercury direct station 04:53 EDT
Sun contraparallel Venus 05:00 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury contraparallel Uranus 06:04 EDT
Heliocentric Earth semisquare Neptune 06:42 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury opposition Poseidon 07:57 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury parallel Jupiter 08:06 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury sextile Saturn 08:44 EDT
Sun in 24th harmonic to Mercury 10:23 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury in 24th harmonic to Admetos 12:41 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury semisquare Hades 14:36 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury quincunx Zeus 14:55 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury quincunx Cupido 18:20 EDT
Heliocentric Venus sextile Pluto 19:35 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury contraparallel Poseidon 21:51 EDT
Venus conjunct Zeus in right ascension 22:07 EDT

September 21
Saturn quincunx Neptune in right ascension 00:01 EDT
Jupiter sextile Poseidon 00:56 EDT
Venus sextile Cupido 02:04 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury contraparallel Pluto 02:57 EDT
Sun sesquiquadrate Neptune in right ascension 04:33 EDT
Void-of-Course Moon 06:21 -- 10:03 EDT
Heliocentric Venus quincunx Mars 08:04 EDT
Venus conjunct Zeus 08:19 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury square Neptune 09:57 EDT
Heliocentric Venus parallel Mars 12:32 EDT
Venus in 24th harmonic to Apollon 12:52 EDT
Venus sesquiquadrate Admetos 13:08 EDT
Mercury trine Chiron 14:59 EDT
Heliocentric Earth semisquare Mercury 15:18 EDT
Venus in 24th harmonic to Jupiter in right ascension 17:56 EDT
Heliocentric Venus in 24th harmonic to Poseidon 17:58 EDT
Heliocentric Mercury contraparallel Chiron 19:00 EDT
Venus sesquiquadrate North Lunar Node 23:16 EDT

*****


STOCKS TO WATCH: AH, CPWM, CY, PSSI, SGMA, TECH, TIF.

Armor Holdings, Inc. (AH)
First Trade Date: 05/07/1999; 9:30 a.m.
Trading Strategy: Our criteria for buying this stock weren't met last week, so we're leaving it on our watch list. With Saturn crossing the First-Trade Ascendant and Mars in retrograde motion, it's due for a price pull-back. We're looking for the AH upward momentum to resume after Mars goes back into direct motion on September 27, so our plan is pick up a few shares for a long position if the price drops back below 15.00, setting our initial stop at 13.75.

Cost Plus Inc. (CPWM)
First Trade Date;: 04/04/1996 09:30 a.m.
Trading Strategy: With Jupiter crossing the IC in the First-Trade horoscope, we should see this stock start to reverse the uptrend that it has had in place since late February. In the meantime, however, there's a strong enough possibility of significant price appreciation that we will be adding a long position to our Model Portfolio, setting our initial stop at 35.00.

Cypress Semiconductor (CY)
First Trade Date: 10/17/1988; 09:30 a.m.
Trading Strategy: This stock remains on our Watch List from last week, since CY failed to meet our price objectives. We will short this stock on a closing price above 18.50, setting our initial buy stop about 1.50 to 2.00 points above our entry price.

PSS World Medical, Inc. (PSSI)
First Trade Date: 05/05/1994; 9:30 a.m.
Trading Strategy: This stock has started hitting resistance at around 9.75 as transiting Saturn approaches its First-Trade Ascendant. The technical picture suggests that in its current price range, it is forming a new base that can become an important springboard for further price appreciation in the months ahead. Our plan is add a long position in this stock to the Model Portfolio, setting our initial stop at 9.10.

Sigmatron International (SGMA)
First Trade Date: 02/09/1994; 9:30 a.m.
Trading Strategy: In spite of the possibility of a short-term price increase for this stock during the next 10 days or so, the intermediate outlook is decidedly bearish. We plan to respond to that bearish prognosis by selling SGMA short this week, setting our initial buy stop at 26.45.

Techne Corporation (TECH)
First Trade Date: 02/09/1989; 09:30 a.m.
Trading Strategy: As Saturn transits the First-Trade IC for TECH, this stock has an opportunity to turn its Saturn resistance into Saturn support. If it does so, it will only add extra energy to an already favorable picture. Our plan is to add a long position in TECH to the Model Portfolio this week, setting our initial stop at 31.00.

Tiffany & Company (TIF)
First Trade Date: 05/05/1987; 09:30 a.m.
Trading Strategy: We are still looking for this stock to test resistance in the 39.54 - 39.56 area. When it does so, its specific response to that that high-energy zone will determine our trading strategy. The historic price movement for TIF is nicely defined by a 15.55 Venus line and a 15.18 Jupiter line, with a 28.17 Neptune line marking key areas of resistance. We will consider two consecutive closes above 39.56 a sufficient confirmation for us to add a long position in TIF to the Model Portfolio; we will set our initial stop at 37.54. If the stock tests resistance at the 39.54 -- 39.56 level, however, and fails to break through, we will short TIF, setting our initial buy stop at 40.00.



FINANCIAL CYCLES (ISSN 1055-8527) is published by Taylor-Bost Consulting and edited by Tim Bost at Post Office Box 1657, Sarasota, FL 34230-1657 USA. Phone: 941-953-3545. Fax: 941-953-3732. Email: timbost@pipeline.com. Entire contents copyright 2003 Timothy L. Bost. No portion of this Weekly Email Update or its printed version may be reproduced without the publisher's written permission. Subscriptions to FINANCIAL CYCLES are $39.00 per month for weekly updates by email or fax, payable by monthly billing to a major credit card. Advance payment options (by credit card, check, or money order) are $228 for 6 months, $432 for 1 year or $815 for two years. All subscriptions are payable in US funds only-- Visa, MasterCard, American Express, Diners Club, and Discover/Novus accepted; please make checks or money orders payable to Taylor-Bost.

By providing a source of independent market analysis, the purpose of FINANCIAL CYCLES is to foster the growth of person-centered business and investment astrology; to enhance the development and dissemination of financial literacy and prosperity consciousness; and to explore the use of technical analysis and financial astrology in promoting an esoteric spiritual understanding of economic trends, geocosmic cycles, geopolitical events, and market movements. FINANCIAL CYCLES is a general interest publication which is prepared from astrological information, news reports, cycle projections, and market observations which are believed to be accurate and reliable, but which cannot be guaranteed. Portfolio and trading reports in this publication do not include taxes and transaction fees, which should be taken into consideration by prospective traders and investors. Even with accurate information, past performance is no guarantee of future results. Speculation in securities and commodities involves considerable financial risk, and readers who plan to invest or speculate in securities or commodities mentioned in FINANCIAL CYCLES have the complete responsibility for making themselves fully aware of all the risks involved before they invest. The editor may or may not have positions in the securities and commodities discussed in this newsletter, and the information in FINANCIAL CYCLES should in no way be understood or construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any products or securities, nor should the material published in this newsletter be considered buy/sell advice.

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posted by Tim Bost @ 9/14/2003 10:57:00 PM